Rankings Machinery & automation Greenlane Renewables
Greenlane Renewables
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Quality of growth−7
- Politics and market−6
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Partner validation+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.86 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 137m
- Cash runway
- 17 months
- Cash / debt
- 12.1 / 2.5m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +2%
Bull case
Cascade LF becomes a success in landfill gas in Brazil and the USA, the order book grows to C$50m+, and revenue reaches C$60–70m with 40% gross margin and 8–10% EBITDA margin. At 0.8–1.0x sales that gives a market cap of C$60–80m – 2–2.5x today; a 3x+ requires an acquisition.
Bear case
The RNG market in the US remains weak, Cascade LF is delayed, and the loss continues at C$2–3m per quarter. In 1.5 years the cash is used up, and an issue at C$0.10 or lower dilutes heavily; the stock may fall 40–60%.
Catalysts
- 12 Nov 2026Q3 2026 results with order backlog and order intakegradual stockanalysis.com
- End of 2026Cascade LF production-ready via Panasonic in São José dos Campos, Brazil (landfill gas)binary investingnews.com
- OngoingNew orders for Cascade H2S desulfurization and upgrading plants (latest C$2.5m 19/8-2026)gradual newswire.ca
Risk of going to zerolow-medium - net cash, no bank debt and EBITDA around zero make zero unlikely over the next 1-2 years, but prolonged stagnation erodes the cash.
Next financingWith average FCF of approx. −C$2.1m per quarter over the last three quarters, cash lasts approx. 17 months (to early 2028). Adjusted EBITDA is close to zero, so an issue is not necessary in the short term, but a new dip in order intake could accelerate it. Panasonic's investment in Brazil (C$2–3m) funds part of the Cascade LF production.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles or warrants found; only share-based compensation (share count +1.8% in a year). No bank debt; C$2.5m in leases.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined; no insider trades found in the searches. Insiders own c. 10.6% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined. Insiders c. 10.6%, institutions c. 2.8%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$30m. (2) Hot theme: partial – biogas/RNG is no longer hot in the US, but is growing in Brazil and Europe. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – Cascade LF production-ready by the end of 2026. (4) Major partner: yes – Panasonic. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 17 months of runway, but close to break-even. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −33% in a year and market cap −84% since 2021.
Why this asymmetryLow EV, net cash, the Panasonic partnership and break-even in sight limit the downside, and Cascade LF gives a real option. But revenue has shrunk for four years, the order backlog is flat, and the stock is so illiquid that it is hard to trade.
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.17 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −37%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −8MarginThe gross margin has been lifted to 41% (from 24–26% in 2021–23), but the operating margin is −6% and the net margin −10% TTM; adjusted EBITDA was only +C$0.1m in Q2 2026 (ROIC −23%, counted only here).
- −7Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from C$71.2m (2022) to 44.4m (2025) and 43.2m TTM; the order backlog is flat at C$25.6m (26.3m the year before), and quarters swing with individual large orders, royalties and spare parts.
- −4MoatSmall niche supplier of upgrading plants (water wash, PSA, membrane) in a market with large competitors in gas separation; no documented pricing power, and the new Cascade LF technology is not yet in series production.
- −3Capital allocationNet loss of C$29.6m in 2023 with large write-downs after acquisition-driven growth; the market cap has fallen from C$186m (2021) to approx. C$30m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Valuation vs historyP/S 0.68 vs 0.27 (2024), 0.37 (2023), 0.82 (2025) and 1.05 (2022); P/B 1.40 vs 0.59–1.54 in 2023–25. EV only approx. CAD 20m (EV/Sales 0.46) due to net cash – in the middle of the historical range, not a deep discount for a company without profit.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−14 of −35
- −5Cash burnCash has fallen from C$19.3m (Sep. 2025) to C$12.1m (June 2026), i.e. approx. C$2.4m per quarter; Altman Z-score 0.42 and Piotroski 2.
- −6Politics and marketDemand depends on new RNG projects in the US, whose economics rest on support schemes (RIN prices and tax credits); revenue has fallen since 2022, and management does not expect real Cascade LF revenue until 2027. The order backlog (C$25.6m) does not include service and spare parts.
- −3Customer concentrationLarge single orders and existing customers weigh heavily (e.g. an order of CAD 2.5m from one US RNG customer in August 2026 equals about 10% of the order backlog); quarterly revenue has swung between CAD 7 and 15m.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Net cashCash of C$12.1m and no bank debt – net cash (approx. C$9.6m after leasing) equals a third of market cap.
- +2Partner validationBinding agreements with Panasonic on volume production of Cascade LF and Cascade MS in Brazil; Panasonic is investing BRL 8–10m (about C$2–3m), and production-ready Cascade LF is targeted for the end of 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). Industry: none fits exactly – Greenlane supplies plants for biogas upgrading and desulphurisation, so 'Machinery & automation' is chosen as the closest. Latest figures are Q2 2026 (30/6-2026). The C$2.5m of debt is lease liabilities; the company has no bank debt. The stock is very illiquid (about C$11,000 in daily turnover). Largest owners and insider trades have not been investigated in detail. No analyst coverage on stockanalysis (forecast 404).
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