Rankings Defence, aerospace & space GomSpace
GomSpace
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−6
- Multiples vs own history−6
- Peers and absolute level−6
Strengths
- Partner validation and defence orders+2
- Main shareholder strengthens the balance sheet+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 12.62 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −31%
- P/E (trailing)
- 57.9
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−18 of −30
- −6MarginFirst profitable year: EBIT of 17 m SEK on revenue of 496 m TTM (3.5%) and a gross margin of 41%. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11% in H1 2026, and guidance is 5–12%. Until 2024 there were large losses (−228 m in 2022, −93 m in 2023, −78 m in 2024), and the margin is still thin for hardware.
- −4Quality of earningsThe profit is not turned into cash. Operating cash flow was −77m TTM, and FCF was −103m in H1 2026, because receivables rose from 66m (2024) to 220m and inventory from 39 to 111m. Net result is also lifted by a positive fair value adjustment of financing warrants.
- −5Capital allocationThe share count has grown from about 52m (2021) to 173.7m via issues in 2022, 2023 and 2025 (SEK 196m in 2025) and Hargreaves' exercise of 3.3m warrants (4.85m new shares at par value) in June 2026. The share count is +18% over a year. ROIC is 7.8% vs a WACC of 12%.
- −3MoatSmall satellite platforms and cubesat components are a market with many competitors (AAC Clyde Space, Kongsberg NanoAvionics, EnduroSat, Open Cosmos) and price pressure. The shift towards 'sovereign' defence and government solutions brings larger contracts but longer sales cycles.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 3.8 vs 1.1-2.8 in 2021-2024. Only the bubble at the end of 2025 (6.6) was higher. P/B is 5.9 vs 1.8-5.6 before 2024. The price has fallen 35% from DKK 17, but the multiple is still above the normal history.
- −6Peers and absolute levelEV/EBIT is 109 and EV/EBITDA 63 TTM. At the guidance midpoint (590m) EV/Sales is about 3.2. The nearest peer, AAC Clyde Space, trades at 2.3x TTM sales and about 1.6x guidance with an order book of SEK 1.2bn. GomSpace is clearly the most expensive.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −5Financing and cash flowCash was 210m at 30/6, but debt was 205m (of which EUR 18m from the main shareholder). The credit facility is fully drawn (tranche C of EUR 7m in March 2026). The company guides negative FCF for the full year 2026, and H1 burned 103m, so there is about 1 year of headroom.
- −4Order intakeOrder intake fell 45% in Q2 2026 to 141m and 18% in H1 to 258m. Book-to-bill in H1 was only approx. 1.1, and to reach the guidance of 540–640m, H2 must deliver 300–400m.
- −2Dependence on the main shareholderPeter Hargreaves' family trust owns 41.3% and is also a lender with EUR 18m. The company's financing rests on one person. That has been a strength so far, but it creates concentration risk and conflicts of interest, and the free float is effectively small.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Partner validation and defence ordersOrder of USD 2.4m from a US defence customer (September 2026) for satellite platforms for a US government mission and a follow-on order of EUR 5.5m from Unseenlabs for microsatellites. It shows repeat purchases and access to the defence market.
- +2Main shareholder strengthens the balance sheetHargreaves refinanced the EUR 18m EIB loan and in June 2026 exercised all 3.3m warrants into 4.85m new shares. That lifted the equity ratio from 32% to 41%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). GomSpace reported semi-annually in 2025, so stockanalysis splits H2 2025 evenly between Q3 and Q4. Stockanalysis: 173.7m shares × DKK 11.00 = SEK 1.91bn ≈ DKK 1,260m, in line with Nordnet's DKK 1,250m. The size of the order backlog at 30/6 was not found (only that it rose). Ownership stakes beyond Hargreaves not found. The CEO's purchase in September 2025 comes from a secondary source and has not been checked in FI's insider register. Short data not found.
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