Rankings Pharma & medtech Humacyte
Humacyte
33
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−15
- Capital allocation−9
- Funding and going concern−9
Strengths
- Approved product and public funding+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 33, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.40 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1.13 USD
- Upside to median
- +183.8%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 0.50 – 4.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −76%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−30 of −30
- −15MarginRevenue USD 2.1m (TTM) vs an operating loss of 110.5m. In Q2 2026 cost of goods was 1.2m (incl. an inventory write-down of 0.7m) vs Symvess sales of 0.4m - negative gross margin.
- −9Capital allocationThe share count rose 46% over a year to 278m shares; the latest issue was 54.8m shares at USD 1.05 in June 2026, and the price has since halved. On top of that comes expensive revenue interest financing from Oberland.
- −6Moat and competitionSymvess competes in vascular injuries with the patient's own vein and cheap synthetic ePTFE grafts, and in dialysis access with AV fistulas and grafts. The price (about USD 29,500 per vessel) makes adoption by hospitals' purchasing committees slow; sales were only USD 0.9m in H1 2026, a year and a half after approval.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales 62 vs 106 (2025) and P/B 4.63 vs 59.6 (2025). The drop is due to the share price, not to the business having improved; revenue is still negligible.
- −5PeersEV of USD 132m for 2m in revenue vs Elutia (EV 19m, EV/Sales 1.6) and Organogenesis (EV 192m for 457m in revenue, EV/Sales 0.42). Humacyte is priced as a promising pipeline, not as a commercial business.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−24 of −35
- −9Funding and going concernThe 10-Q for Q2 2026 mentions 'substantial doubt' about continued operations. Cash burn was USD 22–26m per quarter, so cash of 80m lasts approx. 11 months (slightly longer after savings of 14.3m in 2026).
- −5Listing riskSecond Nasdaq minimum bid notice in 2026 (31/7-2026) with a deadline of 27/1-2027 to reach USD 1 for 10 trading days. The price is USD 0.52, so a reverse split is almost unavoidable.
- −6Commercial executionSymvess sales fell from USD 0.5m in Q1 to 0.4m in Q2 ('a rebuilding quarter'), and the company laid off about 45 employees in May 2026. Inventory was written down, which suggests demand is overestimated.
- −4Binary dependenceThe next growth leg is a supplemental BLA for dialysis access (V007 and V012) in H2 2026. V012 was positive in a subgroup of women (91 more catheter-free days), but an expanded approval is uncertain, and sales would only come in 2027-2028.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Approved product and public fundingSymvess is FDA-approved (Dec. 2024), and the US defence appropriations act for 2026 has dedicated funds for biological vascular repair in soldiers.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The USD 66.9m debt includes Oberland's revenue-interest financing (up to USD 150m, 40m paid out in 2023) and leasing; the exact terms have not been reviewed. The warrant count (14.1m) is from March 2025 and may have changed. No single news item has been found to explain the price fall from the June issue price of USD 1.05 to 0.52 beyond the weak sales. Largest owners and insider trading have not been reviewed.
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