Rankings Pharma & medtech InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo
InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo
48
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Quality of growth−7
- Moat / validation−5
- Macro/regulation (BIOSECURE, US–China)−5
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- Diversified partner base+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 48, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 36.68 HKD
- Median analyst target
- 79.04 HKD
- Upside to median
- +115.5%
- Analysts
- 10
- Target range
- 70.99 – 100.01 HKD
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 34.6
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−21 of −30
- −7Quality of growthH1 2026 revenue $106.3m, of which $103.1m (97%) is deal income that management attributes mainly to upfront payments (Lilly $115m upfront in March). Only $2.7m is recurring software. FY2025 revenue fell 34% to $56.2m – income is lumpy and one-off in nature.
- −4MarginFirst profit in H1 2026 ($35.5m; gross margin 90%), but TTM operating margin about −7% and an FY2025 net loss of $352m. The profit depends on new upfront payments every half-year; R&D rose 39% to $49.3m.
- −5Moat / validationNo approved drug. Rentosertib (TNIK, IPF) entered phase III in China (first patient Sept 2026), but topline data only come in 2029 and from a Chinese study only. The AI platform's value is not yet proven by a marketed product.
- −3Future segment / business modelAI-driven drug discovery is a growth segment, but the model sells the upside early: of about $11bn in total deal value only $308m (about 3%) has been realised; the rest is uncertain milestones and typically single-digit royalties.
- −2Capital allocationStock-based pay rose from $1.5m to $15.7m in H1 2026 (15% of revenue). Adjusted profit ($51.2m) is therefore well above the IFRS figure ($35.5m).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −4EV/sales vs peersEV of about HK$16.3bn (about $2.1bn) means about 15x trailing revenue and about 11.5x 2026E ($182m). That is expensive for income that is almost entirely one-off upfront payments; cheaper than Recursion but above Schrödinger. There is no trading history of its own (listed Dec 2025).
- −4Forward P/EForward P/E about 56 at a price of 36 (86.95 at 56) on 2026E EPS of $0.08, with a range from −$0.09 to $0.23. The multiple rests on lumpy deal income, not recurring earnings.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−22 of −35
- −5Macro/regulation (BIOSECURE, US–China)Core operations are in China (Shanghai/Suzhou), while the key customers are Western pharma (Lilly, Sanofi and others). BIOSECURE became law on 18 Dec 2025, and the OMB must publish the full list of 'companies of concern' by 18 Dec 2026. Treasury is drafting rules for pharma licensing deals with China (Reuters, Sept 2026: probably lenient, but not final). Insilico is not on the 1260H list.
- −4Guidance / revenue visibilityManagement gives no revenue or earnings guidance. 2026 consensus ranges from $149m to $227m, and 2026E FCF is expected to be negative (−$28.5m) despite positive operating cash flow in H1. The deals are 'up to' amounts.
- −4Customer concentrationRevenue is dominated by a few large upfront payments: the Lilly deal's $115m upfront is larger than all of H1 revenue ($106.3m), so a single customer probably weighs heavily. The customer split is not disclosed.
- −4Dilution / lock-up / selling pressureThe share count rose 326% year on year (IPO plus conversion of preference shares). The lock-up expired on 29 Jun 2026, and on 30 Jun pre-IPO investors sold a block of 20.9m shares at HK$37.45 (with a new 90-day lock-up, expired at the end of Sept). The founders have extended their lock-up to 29 Jun 2027, but other 12-month lock-ups expire on 29 Dec 2026.
- −3Execution / clinical riskPhase II data for rentosertib rest on a small study (71 patients), and regulators allowed a jump straight to phase III. Phase III data only arrive in 2029. The shares fell about 40% from HK$60 to 36 in October 2026 on a sector sell-off and capital raises at peers – high volatility.
- −2GovernanceCayman holding company with a dual-CEO structure and a Voting Proxy Arrangement that concentrates votes with the founder. The founder publicly ruled out a takeover ('no possibility'), after which the shares fell 4.6% (31 Mar 2026).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +4Net cashCash, time deposits and financial products of about $585m against loans of $14.7m at 30 Jun 2026. Net cash equals about 21% of market value, and operating cash flow was +$79m in H1.
- +1Diversified partner base16 licensing and collaboration deals with Lilly, Sanofi, Menarini, Servier, Takeda, SK Biopharm and Exelixis among others; 14 of the world's 20 largest pharma companies are partners. The first Servier milestone was triggered on 20 Oct 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price HK$36.00 (close 22 Oct 2026, −6.7% on the day; from about HK$60 in early October, 52-week high 80.90). H1 2026 (HKEX 26 Aug 2026): revenue $106.3m (+287%), of which $103.1m (97%) from drug discovery deals that management itself attributes mainly to upfront payments (incl. Lilly $115m upfront, March 2026); only $2.7m software (recurring). Net profit $35.5m (adjusted $51.2m), operating cash flow $79m, cash + deposits + financial products about $585m. No guidance. The exact upfront/milestone split is NOT disclosed, so the share of one-off income is an estimate (>90%). No 52-week change exists (listed 30 Dec 2025 at HK$24.05); YTD about −4%. The 200-day average is not published – −25% is a rough estimate from the price history. Trailing P/E n/a due to the 2025 loss ($352m, mostly fair-value losses on conversion of preference shares). Stockanalysis price targets are in HKD despite the $ sign. A US OTC ticker ISLMF exists (OTC, about 51,000 shares/day), but Nordnet DK only trades a short list of OTC shares after a knowledge test – not confirmed that ISLMF is on it; hence 'Not on Nordnet' (check manually). Not examined: insider transactions in detail, customer concentration in numbers (not disclosed), the full lock-up calendar for pre-IPO investors.
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