Rankings Pharma & medtech Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson
55
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−9
- Litigation (talc)−6
- Peers−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Dividends and buybacks below FCF+2
- Broad product base and pipeline+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 55, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 270.56 USD
- Median analyst target
- 280.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +3.7%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 190.00 – 320.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +43%
- P/E (trailing)
- 41.1
- Forward P/E
- 24.3
- PEG
- 3.30
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−6 of −30
- −2ROICROIC has fallen from 26.4% (2021) and 24.4% (2023) to 19.9% (TTM) after large debt-financed acquisitions (Shockwave, Intra-Cellular). Still far above WACC (5.1%), but the return on new capital is lower than on the old business.
- −2Capital allocationNet debt has risen from USD 3.1bn (2021) and 7.5bn (2023) to 28.3bn; 15.1bn (2024) and 17.5bn (2025) were spent on cash acquisitions. Growth has been partly bought.
- −2Growth quality (MedTech)MedTech (36% of revenue) is growing more slowly than pharma; cardiovascular (electrophysiology and Abiomed) was a drag in Q2. The operating margin is 27.7% against 27.4% in 2021 - bigger, but not clearly stronger.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−15 of −35
- −9Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 23.4 versus 14.4–18.8 in 2021–2025; EV/EBITDA 18.9 versus 12.2–16.1; P/FCF 28.3 versus 17.6–26.4. All three are above the entire five-year range after a share price rise of 38% in a year.
- −3PeersForward P/E 23.4 versus Merck 17.4 and AbbVie 18.3; EV/EBITDA 18.9 versus 14.1 and 18.0. J&J trades at a clear premium to comparable large pharma companies.
- −3Absolute price levelFCF yield 3.5% and earnings yield 3.3% at a market value of USD 630bn, while analysts expect about 7% annual revenue growth. Average price target only 7% above the share price.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −6Litigation (talc)More than 70,000 talc lawsuits consolidated in New Jersey; a record verdict of over USD 1.5bn in Baltimore (Dec. 2025), new verdicts in Philadelphia, Los Angeles (32m) and California (40m) in 2026. The bankruptcy solution (USD 9bn) was rejected in 2025, so the cases are now being tried individually.
- −3Patent expiry (Stelara/Remicade)Stelara fell 55.7% in Q2 due to biosimilars and gave about 760 bp of headwind in Innovative Medicine; Remicade is also eroding. Excluding Stelara, J&J grew at a double-digit rate, but the next big patent expiry (Darzalex) is late in the decade.
- −3Regulation and drug pricingJ&J has entered an MFN agreement with the Trump administration: discounts via TrumpRx and Medicaid in exchange for a time-limited tariff exemption and 55bn USD in US investments. The extent of the discounts has not been disclosed.
- −2Execution (separation of orthopaedics)The plan to separate DePuy Synthes (Oct. 2025) has turned toward a possible sale for over USD 20bn (including talks with Apollo); no agreement or Form 10 as of August 2026, and the target has been pushed toward mid-2027.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +3Raised guidanceQ2 beat expectations on the top and bottom line, and 2026 guidance was raised to adjusted EPS of USD 11.60-11.75 and revenue of USD 100.8-101.4bn.
- +2Dividends and buybacks below FCF64 consecutive years of dividend increases; dividends (12.6bn) plus buybacks (8.1bn) = 20.7bn USD are below FCF of 22.2bn USD (TTM).
- +2Broad product base and pipelineTremfya above USD 2bn in a quarter for the first time, Darzalex above USD 4bn; Carvykti, Tecvayli and Talvey grew 48-63%. Many growth legs are replacing Stelara.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Score from before the Q3 report on Tuesday 13 October 2026 (before the open); data through 11 Oct 2026. GAAP EPS swings widely due to talc provisions and one-offs (2025 GAAP EPS 11.03 versus adjusted about 10.8); forward P/E is therefore used in T2. The separation/sale of DePuy Synthes (orthopaedics) is not yet resolved.
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