Rankings Pharma & medtech Mereo BioPharma
Mereo BioPharma
56
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−9
- Funding−5
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Partnership+3
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.65 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 423m
- Cash runway
- 16 months
- Cash / debt
- 30.1 / 1.0m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +2%
Bull case
FDA accepts a pediatric indication for setrusumab based on bone density and vertebral fractures, so Ultragenyx milestones become realistic, and Sentynl exercises the option (40 m USD ≈ 60% of market cap). With an EV of only 35 m USD this could give 3–5x; 10x requires positive phase 3 data for alvelestat.
Bear case
FDA requires a new study, Ultragenyx gives up setrusumab, and Sentynl does not exercise the option. The cash (30 m) is burned down in 2027, and an issue at a low price plus the class action presses the stock a further 50–70%.
Catalysts
- H2 2026Partner āshibio starts phase 2 with vantictumab in autosomal dominant osteopetrosis type 2gradual sec.gov
- 9 Nov 2026Q3 report: cash and status of Sentynl and regulatory dialoguegradual stockanalysis.com
- End of 2026Update from FDA/MHRA on a possible path for setrusumab in children with osteogenesis imperfecta (FDA open to alternative fracture analysis)binary biospace.com
- 16 Feb 2027Nasdaq deadline to reach USD 1 (change of ADS ratio expected)binary m.investing.com
- Early 2027Possible start of global phase 3 for alvelestat and Sentynl's decision to exercise the option (USD 40m)binary biospace.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – net cash corresponds to approx. 45% of the market cap and burn is low, but runway is under 2 years without Sentynl money
Next financingCash of USD 30.1m at 30/6-2026; operating spending was 4.3m and 6.0m in Q1 and Q2 (approx. 5.5 on average) = approx. 16 months of runway on cash alone. The company guides runway to the end of 2027, possibly longer with Sentynl payments. If Sentynl exercises the option (USD 40m), financing is secured for a long time; otherwise money must be raised in 2027, probably through an issue at a low price.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertible loans (debt USD 1.0m). Warrants from earlier issues and employee options have not been reviewed in the 10-Q. Number in ADS equivalents (798.1m ordinary shares).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found; insiders own c. 0.75% (stockanalysis). Form 4 has not been reviewed in detail.
Largest ownersRubric Capital about 14% (may be outdated), other large holders: 683 Capital, EcoR1 Capital, Schonfeld, Tejara Capital; institutions in total about 18.5%
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 64m. (2) Hot theme: no – rare diseases without particular market interest. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – regulatory clarification for setrusumab at year-end and the Sentynl option in 2027. (4) Major partner: partial – Ultragenyx and Sentynl, but both with limited commitment. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – runway to the end of 2027. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −79% in a year after the phase 3 failure.
Why this asymmetryNet cash covers almost half of the market cap, and the Sentynl option alone is worth approx. 60% of the market cap if exercised. But setrusumab has failed twice, and all programmes depend on partners' decisions.
How the score is built
From 100 to 56, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.29 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1.94 USD
- Upside to median
- +569.0%
- Analysts
- 8
- Target range
- 0.98 – 3.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −85%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss of USD 7–9m per quarter (−USD 33m TTM) and net loss of 7.0m in Q2 2026.
- −9Quality of growthThe lead candidate setrusumab (partner Ultragenyx) missed the primary endpoint (fewer fractures) in both phase 3 studies, Orbit and Cosmic, in December 2025. The rest of the pipeline is far from market: alvelestat's phase 3 starts in 2027 at the earliest, and vantictumab is pre-phase 2.
- −4MoatAlvelestat (elastase inhibitor for lung disease in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency) is headed for phase 3 with about 220 patients over 18 months; the field has many competitors with new treatments (recombinant AAT, RNA editing), and Mereo depends on partners for all its programmes.
- −2Capital allocationLow dilution in the past year (+2.3%) and heavy cost savings (R&D down from USD 5.4m to 1.8m per quarter), but a long history of issues (e.g. USD 47m in 2024) without an approved product.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersMarket cap USD 64m and EV 35m; P/B 2.2 vs 6-9 before the fiasco. Cheap, but the low price reflects that the pipeline is now a collection of options without a validated asset.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−16 of −35
- −3LawsuitClass action for misleading statements about the phase 3 programmes filed 4/2-2026 in New York against the company, CEO and CSO; the lead plaintiff filed an amended complaint 13/7-2026.
- −3Listing riskThe ADS has traded below USD 1 since February 2026; in August Nasdaq gave an extra deadline to 16/2-2027. At USD 0.40, a change in the ADS ratio (reverse split) of at least 1:3 is required.
- −5FundingCash fell from USD 41.0m (31/12) to USD 30.1m (30/6); runway to the end of 2027 assumes low spending, and the alvelestat phase 3 can only be carried out if Sentynl exercises its option.
- −3
- −2Partner dependenceSetrusumab's future depends on whether Ultragenyx and the authorities will proceed with a paediatric indication after the failed studies; Sentynl has only an option and no obligation to pay the USD 40m.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+6 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash USD 29.1m (cash 30.1, debt 1.0) corresponding to approx. 45% of the market cap.
- +3PartnershipOption and licence agreement with Sentynl (August 2026) for alvelestat in the USA: option fee, USD 40m in upfront and R&D payments on exercise, up to 435m in milestones and double-digit royalties; Ultragenyx on setrusumab and āshibio on vantictumab.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
British biotech listed as an ADR on Nasdaq (1 ADS = 5 ordinary shares; 798m ordinary = 159.7m ADS); no revenue; the option fee from Sentynl is not disclosed; milestone amounts from Ultragenyx for setrusumab have not been investigated; warrants and employee options have not been reviewed; the ownership list (Rubric about 14%) may be outdated; 8 analysts with a price target of USD 1.96, but several have not updated after the failure
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