Rankings Pharma & medtech Novartis
Novartis
61
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−7
- Patent expiry−5
- Quality of growth−4
Strengths
- Dividend and buybacks from FCF+2
- Diversified product base+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 61, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 132.74 CHF
- Median analyst target
- 125.37 CHF
- Upside to median
- −5.6%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 98.50 – 177.30 CHF
- 52-week change
- +33%
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.4
- Forward P/E
- 16.4
- PEG
- 1.96
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−8 of −30
- −4Quality of growthUS generics of Entresto, Promacta and Tasigna are eating growth: in Q2 2026 Entresto fell 50% to USD 1.18bn, and in Q1 Promacta fell 66% and Tasigna 59%. 2026 guidance is low-single-digit sales growth and core operating income falling low single digits; consensus expects core EPS to fall 1.5% in 2026. Kisqali (+43%) and Pluvicto carry growth.
- −4Capital allocation and ROICThe acquisition of Avidity for about USD 12bn (closed 27/2/2026, bridge loan refinanced with bonds) lifted net debt from USD 23.9bn to USD 41.4bn in half a year, and ROIC has fallen from 24.5% (2025) to 18.8% TTM. Avidity is an RNA platform for rare muscle diseases with no sales today, so the return is several years away.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 16.1 vs 11.7–16.1 in 2021–25 (top of the range), P/FCF 17.7 vs 12.0–15.5 and EV/EBITDA 14.5 vs 10.3–14.7. The stock is up 21% in 52 weeks, while EPS is expected to fall in 2026. Pricier than its own history in a year with no earnings growth.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−13 of −35
- −5Patent expiryEntresto loses exclusivity in Europe from November 2026 after the US in 2025, and the total generics gap is estimated at about USD 4bn in 2026. Cosentyx, Kesimpta and Kisqali, which are to carry growth, lose patent protection in the early 2030s.
- −3Price pressure and regulation (MFN and tariffs)The 19/12/2025 agreement with the US government gives three years' exemption from Section 232 tariffs in return for MFN pricing and investment commitments in the US. Management itself says the MFN effect will come through over the next 18 months.
- −4Pipeline executionThe phase III study Lp(a)HORIZON with pelacarsen (8,323 patients) missed the primary endpoint of fewer cardiovascular events (4/9/2026), even though Lp(a) fell as expected. It was one of the big cardiovascular hopes to replace Entresto.
- −1Debt and liquidityDebt/EBITDA has risen from 1.5 to 2.1 and net debt/EBITDA from 1.0 to 1.8; current ratio is 0.86. Interest cover is 13x, so it is not critical, but the balance sheet is clearly tighter after Avidity (the acquisition itself is penalised in T1).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Dividend and buybacks from FCFFCF after leases was about USD 16.5bn TTM and covers dividends (9.1bn) plus buybacks (6.9bn). The share count fell 3.3% in a year, which fits the buyback in the cash flow statement. 28 years of dividend growth.
- +1Diversified product baseSales are spread across oncology (USD 17.2bn), immunology (10.6), neuroscience (6.7) and cardiometabolic (7.2), and no single product weighs more than about 12% after the Entresto decline.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Q3 results come 27/10/2026; Q2 was helped by one-off shifts (about 5 percentage points on core operating profit), which are expected to reverse in H2. The reporting currency is USD, but the share trades in CHF, so CHF strength affects the multiples. Insider trades are not examined (0 points). Consensus is Hold (13 of 23), and the median price target is in line with the share price.
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