Rankings Pharma & medtech Outlook Therapeutics
Outlook Therapeutics
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−13
- Capital allocation−7
- Moat−6
Strengths
- FDA approval+3
- Insider buying+2
- European rollout+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.47 USD
- Median analyst target
- 4.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +752.5%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 1.60 – 10.50 USD
- 52-week change
- −63%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−30 of −30
- −13MarginTTM revenue negative (USD −1.2m; small European sales offset), operating profit −55.6m and net loss −61.1m. Q3 FY2026: net loss 20.3m, adjusted net loss 10.9m. Accumulated deficit 654m.
- −4Quality of growthOne product. The launch in Germany, Austria and the UK has not produced noticeable revenue, and the US launch only starts at the end of 2026. Management's target of over USD 500m in US sales in 2030 is not supported by data.
- −6MoatLYTENAVA is bevacizumab, a decades-old substance. Doctors today use repackaged Avastin from pharmacies at a fraction of the list price of USD 485, and Eylea, Vabysmo and biosimilar aflibercept and ranibizumab products are pressuring prices. The only advantage is that it is FDA-approved for the eye.
- −7Capital allocationThe price has fallen from USD 43.40 (2021, adjusted) to 0.59 after three CRLs. Financing has come via expensive debt notes (the Avondale note was raised by 3.0m after a 'Major Trigger Event'; the Atlas note with 9.5% minimum interest and 7.5% exit fee) and issues with warrants down to USD 0.25.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−2 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyMarket cap USD 144m vs 47-380m at the year-ends 2021-2025; EV pro forma about 100m for a now approved product. Not expensive relative to history, when the stock was more expensive without approval.
- −1PeersEyePoint Pharmaceuticals (Duravyu, not yet approved) has an EV of USD 122m with 180m in cash. Outlook has a similar EV with an approved product, but a far weaker balance sheet.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−23 of −35
- −6Going concern and debt10-Q: 'substantial doubt'. Cash plus the issue only lasts into Q2 2027, and the Atlas note of USD 20.3m matures 16/6-2027 with the right to demand 3m per quarter from September 2026 plus a 7.5% exit fee. The launch must be funded by new issues.
- −6Dilution, warrants and ATMThe share count has risen 182% over a year to 243m. About 104m warrants (43% of the share count): 63.9m at USD 1.10 (August 2026), 20m at USD 0.25 (March 2026) and others. ATM with H.C. Wainwright (17.0m shares sold in the quarter), and authorized capital has been raised from 260 to 600m shares.
- −4Nasdaq listingNasdaq notice 25/9-2026 for price below USD 1 for 30 trading days; deadline to 24/3-2027 (possibly a further 180 days on Capital Market). A reverse split is likely.
- −4Launch and reimbursementApplication for a permanent HCPCS code (J-code) first submitted about 1/10-2026, so the launch happens without a permanent reimbursement code. A new commercial organisation must be built from scratch, and physicians' buy-and-bill economics favour cheaper or more profitable alternatives today.
- −1Management changeCFO Lawrence Kenyon stepped down 1/9-2026 in the middle of launch preparations and is replaced by Kevin Lundquist (formerly CapsoVision). The former CEO left the company during the financial year (severance costs in the 10-Q).
- −1LawsuitClass action from November 2023 (District of New Jersey) against the company and executives over statements about ONS-5010 is still pending.
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3FDA approvalAfter a successful formal appeal against the CRL from December 2025, the FDA approved LYTENAVA in July 2026 as the only FDA-approved ophthalmic bevacizumab for wet AMD. Approved in the EU and UK since 2024.
- +2Insider buyingIn the August 2026 issue at USD 0.99, CEO Robert Jahr bought 151,515 shares, CFO Lawrence Kenyon 101,010 and major shareholder GMS Ventures 2,525,252 shares (plus warrants); GMS also bought 8.5m shares at USD 0.5855 in May 2026.
- +1European rolloutLYTENAVA is sold in Germany, Austria and the United Kingdom; launch in the Netherlands planned later in 2026 and in Switzerland (partner Mediconsult) in 2027.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price USD 0.593 (2/10-2026). 243.4m shares (14/8-2026, after the August issue) give a market cap of about USD 144m (about DKK 950m); Nordnet's DKK 1,003m is slightly higher. Further ATM sales after August are not tallied. The fiscal year ends 30/9; the latest 10-Q is for Q3 FY2026 (April-June). Cash 11.2m at 30/6 plus 51.1m net from the August issue (55.6m shares + as many warrants at USD 0.99) = about 62m pro forma; management says it only lasts into Q2 2027. Going concern warning. Atlas promissory note of 20.3m falls due 16/6-2027, and Atlas can demand 3m repaid per quarter from 16/9-2026 (+7.5% exit fee). Nasdaq notice 25/9-2026, deadline 24/3-2027. LYTENAVA was FDA-approved in July 2026 after three CRLs; US launch planned before the end of 2026 at USD 485 per vial. Analyst price targets (avg. USD 5.03, +748%) are stale after the dilution.
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