Rankings Machinery & automation PyroGenesis
PyroGenesis
41
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Valuation vs history and peers−12
- Liquidity and solvency−12
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
- Order book+3
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.39 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 315m
- Cash runway
- 1 months
- Cash / debt
- 1.3 / 2.7m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +17%
Bull case
The order book of CAD 40m is converted into revenue over three years (approx. 13m a year on top of new order intake), revenue reaches CAD 25–30m with a 35% gross margin and break-even, and the fumed silica plant becomes an equipment order in the double-digit-million class. At EV/Sales 4–5 on CAD 30m the market value is CAD 120–150m – approx. 2x; a larger Asian silica deal with several 10,000-ton reactors could give 3–5x.
Bear case
Cash is effectively empty: yet another issue at C$0.15–0.25 (as this summer, when the price fell to approx. C$0.20) dilutes 20–40%, the fumed silica agreements drag out again, and projects are delayed. Negative equity and dependence on the CEO's money mean that a closed financing door could send the stock towards zero.
Catalysts
- Sep 2026Installation of a 4.5 MW plasma torch system at a US defense and aerospace research facility completed (contract approx. C$4.1m) – reference for further defense ordersgradual stocktitan.net
- Nov 2026Q3 2026 results (Q3 2025 came in November) – shows whether revenue growth and the lower loss hold, and how liquidity is after the July maturitygradual stocktitan.net
- Not set (negotiations under way)Definitive agreements on a 1,000-ton fumed silica plant with HPQ, where PyroGenesis now owns 50% of HPQ Silica Polvere (completed 29/9-2026) and is exclusive equipment supplierbinary stocktitan.net
Risk of going to zerohigh – C$1.3m in cash, −7.1m in working capital and negative equity; survival requires ongoing issues or CEO support.
Next financingAcute: cash C$1.3m and working capital −C$7.1m at 30/6-2026. TTM FCF −C$11.8m (about 3m per quarter) gives about 1 month of runway; even with Q2's lower EBITDA loss (0.5m) there is no buffer. The company counts on cash, customer prepayments, 'strategic investment' and the capital market – expect a new issue or CEO financing within 0–6 months.
Warrants & convertiblesWarrants from the Q2 2026 issues (bought deal 12.5m units at CAD 0.34 plus private placements of 3.65m and 5.88m units) expiring in 2029; strike not found. A convertible bond matured in July 2026 (status not clarified). Options not tallied.
Insiders, last 12 monthsCEO Peter Pascali: secured loan of C$0.8m (February 2026, repaid before 30/6) and purchase of 5.88m units for C$2.0m at C$0.34 (June 2026). Sales not systematically checked.
Largest ownersCEO Peter Pascali is by far the largest owner; insiders in total about 27% according to stockanalysis, institutions under 0.1%. Other owners not examined.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 315m. (2) Hot theme: partial – defense and advanced materials, but not a hyped theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – fumed silica agreements could change the picture. (4) Major partner: partial – U.S. Navy-related customers and Tata Steel project certification, but no major strategic partner with capital. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 1 month of runway. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – 91% below 2021, but already +40% in three months.
Why this asymmetryThe order book, falling losses and a possible silica breakthrough give real upside, and the CEO has bought above today's price. But the balance sheet is so weak that the next issue is almost certain and could come at a lower price, and the company has promised a breakthrough for many years without profitability.
How the score is built
From 100 to 41, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.20 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −15%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −12MarginOperating margin −62% and net loss −C$9.7m TTM; losses every year (operating margin between −41% and −219% in 2021–25). Gross margin has fallen from 43% in 2022 to 27% TTM.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue has more than halved from C$31.1m in 2021 to 12.6m in 2025 (TTM 15.9m) and swings with individual projects; the order book fell from 43.1 to C$40.0m in Q2 2026.
- −4Focus and capital allocation88 employees spread across plasma torches, metal powder, DROSRITE, defense projects and a fumed silica JV; after net losses of about C$120m in total in 2021–25 alone, none of the businesses has reached profitability.
- −2MoatNiche technology with decades of experience and customers such as the U.S. Navy and a US defense research facility, but small orders (e.g. C$4.1m for a 4.5 MW system) and no meaningful recurring revenue.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−12 of −35
- −12Valuation vs history and peersEV/Sales 4.4 is the lowest in the company's history (5.5-18 in 2021-25), but still expensive for a loss-making project company with negative equity (P/B -17.7) and a 27% gross margin; small industrial equipment companies typically trade at 1-2x revenue.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−23 of −35
- −12Liquidity and solvencyCash of only C$1.3m and working capital of −C$7.1m at 30/6-2026 despite C$6.26m raised in Q2; negative equity (−3.8m), current ratio 0.61 and Altman Z-score −12. Operations have been financed by the CEO's loans (C$0.8m in February) and issues.
- −6DilutionShare count +17% over a year and +4.7% in the latest quarter; in Q2 2026 units were issued in a bought deal (12.5m at C$0.34) and two private placements with warrants to 2029; issues of C$13.1m TTM equal about 19% of market value.
- −3History toward shareholdersVoluntarily delisted from Nasdaq in November 2023 after being below the USD 1 requirement since November 2022; the price has fallen from C$3.33 at end-2021 to C$0.30.
- −2Delayed agreementsThe final JV agreements on the fumed silica plant were expected by the end of Q2 2026, but were still under negotiation; the 1,000-tonne plant still depends on final agreements.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+6 of +15
- +3Insider buyingCEO Peter Pascali subscribed C$2.0m (5.9m units at C$0.34) in June 2026 – above today's price – and insiders own about 27%.
- +3Order bookOrder book CAD 40.0m (88% in USD) equal to approx. 2.5 times TTM revenue; Q2 revenue rose 47% to CAD 4.4m and the modified EBITDA loss narrowed to CAD 0.5m.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Canadian plasma technology company (plasma torches for industry and defence, metal powder for 3D printing, DROSRITE for aluminium, fumed silica JV with HPQ). Latest quarter Q2 2026 (to 30/6-2026). Industry: 'Machinery & automation' is the closest. Market cap about C$67.9m (226.4m shares x C$0.30) = about DKK 315m. No analyst coverage on stockanalysis (forecast 404). Status of the convertible bond that matured in July 2026 is not clarified. Warrant strike from the June issue has not been found. Insider trades only partially checked (CEO purchase in June). The stock has risen about 40% in three months (RSI 77), so the price may be affected by short-term momentum.
Also in Machinery & automation
The highest scores in the same industry.
