Rankings Machinery & automation Serve Robotics
Serve Robotics
47
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−13
- Quality of growth−7
- Cash flow, ATM and dilution−7
Strengths
- Net cash+4
How the score is built
From 100 to 47, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.51 USD
- Median analyst target
- 10.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +298.4%
- Analysts
- 8
- Target range
- 7.00 – 22.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −81%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−29 of −30
- −13MarginGross loss of 28.8m USD and operating loss of 189.4m USD TTM on revenue of 7.8m USD (operating margin -2,431%). The gross loss was 8.8m in Q2 alone, i.e. the robots lose money on every delivery before fixed costs. ROIC -41% is not counted again.
- −7Quality of growthRevenue guidance for 2026 was cut from USD 26m to USD 9-10m after a drop in deliveries in Q2 and the loss of the expected Uber volume. Revenue grew only 9% from Q1 to Q2 despite a fleet of about 2,000 robots, and about half of food delivery revenue is advertising on the robots.
- −5Capital allocationThe fleet was built well ahead of demand (capex USD 37m in 2025), and companies have been bought (Diligent for USD 25.7m and others), while the share count rose 44% in a year. Non-GAAP costs of USD 140–150m in 2026 compare with 9–10m in revenue.
- −4MoatSidewalk delivery has many competitors (Starship, Coco, Avride, Nuro), and Serve depends on the platforms Uber Eats and DoorDash as customers and channel, so pricing power lies with the platforms.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples versus own history and price levelEV/Sales 18.8 versus 214 (2025) and 300 (2024); P/B 1.07 versus 2.2 and 4.5, and EV is only USD 146m because net cash makes up about 61% of market value. Cheap against its own history, but still about 15x this year's revenue for a business with a gross loss.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−18 of −35
- −6Customer concentration (Uber)The CEO said in August that it makes no sense to renew the Uber agreement when it expires in early 2027 unless the operating model improves. In 2025 one customer accounted for 46% of half-year revenue; DoorDash is growing but does not yet replace Uber volume.
- −7Cash flow, ATM and dilutionFCF −USD 170m TTM (−44m in Q2). In Q2 the company sold 9.57m shares via an ATM programme (sales agreement of 11/5/2026) for USD 83.4m net, and the share count rose 44% in a year. There are 5.08m warrants. Cash lasts about 16 months at the Q2 burn rate; no going-concern warning, the company writes at least 12 months.
- −3Short interest32.1m shares are sold short: 37.0% of shares and 38.8% of free float (8.5 days to cover).
- −2Macro and sentimentThe stock is -68% over 52 weeks and -26% over 3 months with beta 2.5; it trades below the 50- and 200-day averages (4.76 and 7.96 USD).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+4 of +15
- +4Net cashCash and securities 240.4m USD and debt 9.7m as of 30 Jun 2026, i.e. net cash approx. 231m USD (2.66 USD per share, approx. 61% of market cap).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (the price is above DKK 3). Serve operates autonomous sidewalk robots for food delivery via Uber Eats and DoorDash and has bought Diligent Robotics (hospital robots, Jan. 2026). A price of USD 4.35 (9/10-2026) and 86.7m shares at 4/8-2026 (10-Q) give a market cap of USD 377m (DKK 2,483m); Nordnet showed DKK 2,723m, which may indicate further ATM sales after 4/8 (not verified). The latest report is Q2 2026 (30/6). The total size of the ATM agreement and remaining amount, and the warrants' exercise price, have not been found. The largest individual shareholders have not been examined. Analysts' price targets (average USD 12.14) are largely from before/around the guidance cut and are probably outdated.
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