Rankings Pharma & medtech Tonix Pharmaceuticals
Tonix Pharmaceuticals
47
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−13
- Capital allocation−12
- Funding and going concern−10
Strengths
- Net cash above market cap+2
- Commercial traction+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 47, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 5.15 USD
- Median analyst target
- 26.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +404.9%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 18.00 – 65.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −72%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−29 of −30
- −13MarginRevenue USD 29.1m (TTM) vs an operating loss of 165.4m. In Q2 2026 SG&A was 36.0m and R&D 19.4m vs TONMYA sales of 11.0m; the loss grows with the launch (-125.7m in 2025).
- −12Capital allocationThe share count rose 217% over a year (1,056% in 2025) after ongoing ATM sales and issues, and a 1:100 reverse split was done in February 2025 on top of earlier splits. The adjusted price has fallen from USD 228,928 at end-2021 to 8.91 – one of the worst dilution histories on Nasdaq.
- −4Moat and competitionTONMYA is sublingual cyclobenzaprine – an old, generic muscle relaxant in a new formulation. It competes with generic duloxetine, pregabalin and milnacipran, and the moat rests on formulation patents.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−3 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/S 5.25 vs 14.77 (2025), 6.11 (2024) and 3.04 (2023); P/B 0.67 vs 0.11–0.81 in 2021–2025. In the middle of a history that has itself been marked by emergency issues.
- −1PeersEV around zero (USD -22m on the June cash) vs Vanda (EV 133m, EV/Sales 0.62) with a larger, but also loss-making portfolio. Cheap, but cash is burned quickly.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−19 of −35
- −10Funding and going concernThe 10-Q mentions 'substantial doubt': cash plus USD 3.7m from the ATM after the quarter only lasts into the beginning of Q2 2027. Cash burn has been approx. USD 42m per quarter in 2026, so a large issue or ATM dilution is almost certain within 6–9 months.
- −6Execution of launch12,592 prescriptions and USD 11.0m in TONMYA sales in Q2 – approx. one third of commercial costs. Sales must grow approx. 4–5x before the launch pays for itself, and growth is coming from a low base after the approval in Aug. 2025.
- −3Payers and pricing accessCoverage has reached about 166m lives after a PBM agreement on 22/9-2026, but a branded fibromyalgia drug faces step edits against cheap generic alternatives, which pressures gross-to-net and the start-up pace.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Net cash above market capCash USD 176.2m and almost no debt (1.3m) at 30/6 vs a market cap of 153m; P/B 0.67.
- +2Commercial tractionTONMYA sales rose 197% quarter over quarter, prescriptions 100% and refills 207%; the first new fibromyalgia treatment in over 15 years.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Cash of USD 176m is as of 30/6-2026; after quarterly spending of about 42m it is probably about 135-140m now, so the negative EV (-22m) overstates how cheap it is. The company says cash only lasts into the beginning of Q2 2027 (going concern), which is shorter than the formula and suggests rising spending. Warrants, largest owners and insider trades have not been reviewed in detail. The price is well above DKK 3 after a 1:100 reverse split in 2025.
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