Rankings Pharma & medtech Acarix
Acarix
43
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding−8
- Capital allocation−7
Strengths
- Cost control+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.13 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 167m
- Cash runway
- 7 months
- Cash / debt
- 28.9 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +8%
Bull case
Sales in the US keep doubling every year (from 9m to SEK 40–50m in 2028), and patch sales provide recurring revenue with an 84% gross margin. Broader reimbursement and break-even at around 60m in revenue can lift the value to SEK 600–800m (2.5–3x), but only after further dilution.
Bear case
Growth from the small base is flattening out, and a new issue at DKK 0.10–0.15 with 30–50% dilution is necessary within half a year. With an EV/Sales of 23 and continued losses, the share price could halve without anything going wrong in operations.
Catalysts
- 5 Nov 2026Q3 report: sales in the USA, systems and patches, and cashgradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026–Q1 2027 (no date)New capital raise needed, as cash lasts about 7 monthsbinary acarix.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – the product has real and growing revenue, and capital has been raised before, but cash lasts only approx. 7 months, and each new financing dilutes heavily
Next financingThe cash (SEK 28.9m at 30/6) lasts approx. 7 months at Q2's spending rate, i.e. into Q1 2027. There is no secured financing, so a new directed issue or rights issue in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 is likely, presumably at a discount to DKK 0.20.
Warrants & convertiblesOption programme 2026/2029 for the CEO: 22.5m warrants (approx. 1.9% dilution), strike not reviewed. No convertible loans found. Possible remaining part of the directed issue from December 2025 (up to 117m shares at DKK 0.285).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo specific insider purchases or sales found (not reviewed in detail). The general meeting in June 2026 adopted an option programme for the CEO.
Largest ownersNot quantified. Insiders own c. 9.5% and institutions c. 25.5% (stockanalysis). The directed issue in December 2025 went to US life science investors (incl. cardiologists) and Nordic investors.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 167m. (2) Hot theme: no, cardiac diagnostics is not a market theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: no, only quarterly figures; no binary data. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 7 months. (6) Price near the bottom: partial, −32% in a year, but EV/Sales of 23 is not low.
Why this asymmetryGrowth in the US is real (+212% in Q2), and gross margin is high, but the valuation is already high relative to revenue, and a new issue comes within half a year. There is no binary catalyst that can 10x the stock. The most likely outcome is that the upside gets diluted away.
How the score is built
From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.18 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −35%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 9.2m vs an operating loss of 38.9m (TTM), i.e. an operating margin of about -420%. Gross margin is 84%, but costs are four times revenue. Net loss was -9.5m in Q2 on sales of 2.3m.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue rose 102% in Q2 (USA +212%) and 29 systems were delivered, but the base is small: revenue has been SEK 4–7m a year in 2021–2025. 11 of the 29 systems were consignment, i.e. not sales.
- −4MoatCADScor is an acoustic test that can rule out coronary artery disease. It competes with established methods (CT angiography, FFR-CT, exercise ECG) and after ten years on the market still has revenue under SEK 10m, so the clinical and commercial advantage is not proven.
- −7Capital allocationThe share count has risen from 141m (2021) to 1,241m (about 9x) through rights issues, directed issues and warrants, including a failed rights issue in December 2022 and a directed issue of 33.4m at DKK 0.285 in December 2025.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 23 vs 7-51 in 2021-2025 (middle of the range), and P/B is 5.5 vs 1.4-8.7. There is no discount vs history despite continued large losses.
- −5Peers and absolute levelEV of about SEK 212m for 9m in revenue is expensive. Medtech companies with real revenue and losses typically trade at 1-5x sales (OssDsign 1.5x, Senzime 4x), and FCF yield is -10%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−19 of −35
- −8FundingCash was SEK 28.9m at 30/6, and operating spending was 11.8m in Q2, so the money lasts about 7 months. There is no debt and no secured financing, so a new issue within half a year is likely.
- −5DilutionThe issues typically happen at a discount (−7.9% in December 2025, −8% in 2023), and the share count has grown 8–94% a year since 2021. The 2026 general meeting also adopted an option programme of 22.5m warrants for the CEO.
- −4Commercial adoptionGrowth in the US rests on few units (15 systems sold in the US in Q2, 140 boxes of patches). Many systems are placed on consignment, and the patch business model requires clinics to use the system on an ongoing basis.
- −2Share price riskThe price has fallen 32-37% over a year and trades below the December 2025 issue price of DKK 0.285, so the new investors are sitting on a loss.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Cost controlOperating costs fell 19% in Q2 and 26% in H1, and net loss was 26–27% smaller, while sales grew.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). Market cap does not quite match: 1,241m shares (stockanalysis at 30/6) × SEK 0.204 = SEK 253m ≈ DKK 167m, vs Nordnet's DKK 149m (corresponding to c. 1.11bn shares, probably an old share count). The directed issue from December 2025 (up to 117m shares at SEK 0.285) may have been registered in two tranches; the final share count is not confirmed. Reimbursement in the US (CPT code), competition and insider trades have not been examined.
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