Rankings Pharma & medtech AEON Biopharma
AEON Biopharma
43
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Funding and dilution−10
- Margin−9
- Capital allocation−8
Strengths
- Positive FDA feedback+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.98 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 98m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 17.0 / 2.8m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +614%
Bull case
FDA approves the CMAP study and the integrated package without a new efficacy study, and ABP-450 becomes the first BOTOX biosimilar in a therapeutic market of over 3 bn USD. Even 2–3% market share (60–90 m USD in sales) can justify a market cap of 100–200 m USD; fully diluted (about 150 m shares) that equals 0.7–1.3 USD = 2–4x.
Bear case
Cash runs out in Q1 2027, and the next issue comes at an even lower price with new warrants; the FDA still requires a large comparative efficacy study (USD 50-100m), which AEON cannot finance. The stock could then go toward zero or end in a reverse split and dilution of 50-80%.
Catalysts
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 report with cash and runway after the July issuegradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026IND submission for the CMAP pharmacodynamics study in healthy volunteersgradual globenewswire.com
- Q1 2027Start of the CMAP study (milestone that may trigger milestone warrants)gradual globenewswire.com
- 2027Back to the FDA with a combined evidence package before BLA (351(k))binary globenewswire.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – about 6 months of runway, negative equity and 85m warrants over shareholders; the product itself is however already approved in the US for cosmetics, so the scientific risk is lower than for typical biotech
Next financingCash of approx. USD 17m after the July issue (3.4m at 30/6 + 13.6m net), but the company guides only 'into Q1 2027', because the CMAP study and analytical studies raise spending. New capital must be raised around the turn of the year – probably via exercise of milestone warrants after positive milestones or yet another issue. Runway is set at approx. 6 months (to Q1 2027) per the company's own guidance.
Warrants & convertiblesJuly 2026: 42.7m shares/pre-funded warrants sold at USD 0.3221 with 42.7m 2-year milestone warrants (strike 0.3221) and 42.7m 5-year milestone warrants (strike 0.3704) – approx. 85m warrants in total close to the price (potentially USD 29.6m). Remaining pre-funded warrants (estimated approx. 19m) are not included in the 49.9m shares. Convertible loans of USD 1.8m and warrant liabilities of 11.4m at 30/6. Fully diluted, the share count could become approx. 150m or more.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found (Form 4 not reviewed in detail); insiders own 17.7% (probably incl. Daewoong).
Largest ownersNot examined in detail; insiders 17.7% and institutions 26.1% (stockanalysis). Daewoong is historically a large owner.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 15m. (2) Hot theme: partial – biosimilars and toxins are a large market, but not a hot theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – IND Q4 2026, CMAP study Q1 2027 and FDA package 2027. (4) Major partner: partial – Daewoong is the licensor, not a funding partner. (5) Funding 2+ years: no – only into Q1 2027. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −63% over 52 weeks and around the issue price.
Why this asymmetryThe product is already approved (cosmetics), and the FDA feedback points to a cheaper route, so there is real upside if the biosimilar route succeeds. But the 85m warrants close to the price limit the upside, and the short runway makes new dilution almost certain.
How the score is built
From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.27 USD
- Median analyst target
- 2.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +632.6%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 1.20 – 2.10 USD
- 52-week change
- −68%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −9MarginNo revenue; operating loss of USD 5–6m per quarter in H1 2026 and a net loss of 12.9m for the half-year. Negative equity (−15.4m at 30/6).
- −5Quality of growthNo revenue before a possible approval; the IND for the CMAP study is only submitted in Q4 2026, the study starts Q1 2027, and the FDA must see the full package in 2027. No approved biosimilar to a botulinum toxin exists yet, so the path is untested.
- −5MoatThe molecule is owned by Daewoong (already sold in the US for cosmetics as Jeuveau via Evolus); AEON only has a licence. A biosimilar competes on price against Allergan/AbbVie (BOTOX) and other toxins such as Dysport, Xeomin and Daxxify.
- −8Capital allocationThe share count rose 614% over a year. The July issue sold 42.7m shares at USD 0.3221 with two milestone warrants per share (85.4m warrants at USD 0.32 and 0.37) – very expensive financing for existing shareholders.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersMarket cap USD 15m and EV 14m with negative equity and no revenue. Low price against a therapeutic toxin market of over USD 3bn, but fully diluted (including warrants and pre-funded) the value is more than double, and there are no earnings to measure on.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−23 of −35
- −10Funding and dilutionEven after the July issue (13.6m net), the cash lasts only 'into Q1 2027'. Milestone warrants on 85m shares are close to the price, and the CMAP study and BLA require more capital, so new dilution is almost certain within 6 months.
- −6Regulatory uncertaintyFDA says a comparative efficacy study may 'perhaps' not be necessary, but reserves the right to require further clinical evidence; the first biosimilar to BOTOX across all indications (incl. migraine, where extra analyses are required) is an unprecedented regulatory attempt.
- −4Listing riskAEON regained full compliance on NYSE American on 3/8-2026 after earlier deficiencies (equity), but equity is still negative, and the price of USD 0.30 may trigger a reverse split requirement ('low selling price').
- −3Dependence on the licensorAll the value rests on the licence and supply from Daewoong and on Daewoong's older studies, which the FDA now allows as supporting evidence; AEON owns neither the molecule nor the production.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Positive FDA feedbackType 2b meeting (30/9-2026): FDA accepts Daewoong's earlier comparative studies (blepharospasm, spasticity, wrinkles) as supporting evidence, and a standalone efficacy study may not be necessary – it saves time and money.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Biotech without revenue that wants to get ABP-450 (prabotulinumtoxinA, licensed from Korea's Daewoong) approved as a biosimilar to BOTOX. The very high turnover (USD 34.9m/day) is linked to the FDA response from the Type 2b meeting 30/9-2026 and the July issue with 85m milestone warrants close to the price. Cash as of 30/9 is not reported; the figure here is 3.4m as of 30/6 plus 13.6m net from the July issue. Licence terms and supply agreement with Daewoong have not been reviewed. 4 analysts with an average price target of USD 1.78 (+493%) – probably too optimistic after the issue at USD 0.32.
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