Rankings Pharma & medtech Accuray
Accuray
47
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and covenants−8
- Quality of growth−7
- Margin−6
Strengths
- Recurring service revenue+2
- Cost program ahead of target+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 1.78 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 212m
- Cash runway
- 38 months
- Cash / debt
- 41.2 / 184.0m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +19%
Bull case
The recapitalisation is approved, debt falls to about USD 144m, the cost programme holds the Q4 level (operating margin about 6%), and China stabilises. At revenue of 400m and EV/revenue of 0.6–0.7 (historical), EV becomes 240–280m; minus about 90m in net debt, equity becomes 150–190m spread over about twice as many shares = about 2–3x the current price.
Bear case
Shareholders vote no, or the order decline continues (product orders −55% in Q4). The covenant pause expires in 2027 with debt of about USD 144–184m against EBITDA near zero; TCW (which is both lender and coming major shareholder) can take over the company in a restructuring. The stock can go toward zero.
Catalysts
- 6 Oct 2026Extraordinary general meeting: approval of TCW preferred shares (USD 55m) and reverse split 1:15–1:40binary stocktitan.net
- 2026-11-04 (estimated)Q1 FY2027 report: order intake (−55% in Q4), China and margin after the cost programmegradual stockanalysis.com
- No dateSamsung collaboration on volumetric imaging for CyberKnife (non-binding LOI)gradual stocktitan.net
Risk of going to zerohigh – debt of about 5–6 times market cap, negative EBITDA, falling orders and a recapitalisation that halves current shareholders' ownership share
Next financingCash of USD 41.2m at 30/6 and FCF of −12.8m TTM (approx. 3.2m per quarter, but highly volatile: −19m in Q2, +10m in Q1) give approx. 38 months of runway on ongoing operations. The real financing is the TCW recapitalization: 15m in cash and 40m of the debt converted into preferred shares if shareholders say yes on 6/10-2026. After that, debt is approx. USD 144m with a covenant holiday to the end of 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesCompleted: +19% shares over 12 months (exchange of the 3.75% convertibles 2026 for 8.9 m shares + cash in 2025). Pending (requires yes vote 6/10-2026): 55,000 Series A convertible preferred shares (8% cumulative dividend, conversion about 0.50 USD = about 110 m shares before split) and 15.3 m warrants at 0.01 USD for 7 years; about 27.6 m old warrants cancelled. In total about +105% shares, so current shareholders end up with about half of the company.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot reviewed (Form 4 not checked); insiders own about 4.6%. TCW effectively becomes the largest owner via preference shares and warrants.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail; institutions own c. 48% and insiders c. 4.6% (stockanalysis). After the recapitalisation TCW could own about half.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 32m. (2) Hot theme: no – radiation therapy equipment with falling orders. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – vote 6/10 and Q1 report 4/11. (4) Major partner: partial – TCW as financial partner and a non-binding LOI with Samsung. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – covenant holiday to the end of 2027, but the debt remains. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −83% in a year.
Why this asymmetryRevenue of USD 400m and a stable service base make a turnaround possible, but the debt and TCW's preferred shares and USD 0.01 warrants take most of any upside before ordinary shareholders get anything.
How the score is built
From 100 to 47, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.15 USD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −90%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−19 of −30
- −6MarginThe gross margin fell to 27.7% in FY2026 from 32–37% in earlier years, the operating margin was −2.6%, and the net loss grew to USD 49.2m (incl. 16.2m in restructuring). Q4 showed improvement (gross margin 34.8%, operating margin 6%).
- −7Quality of growthRevenue fell 12% to USD 401.9m, product sales fell 42% in Q4, gross orders fell 55% in Q4 and 33% for the year, and the order backlog fell 27% to 312.5m. No guidance for FY2027.
- −2MoatNiche technology (CyberKnife/TomoTherapy) in a market dominated by Varian (Siemens Healthineers) and Elekta; Accuray is small and losing product sales.
- −4Capital allocationThe share count rose 19% over a year after the exchange of convertible bonds (8.9m shares + USD 68.6m in cash) and warrants to TCW in 2025; ROIC −5.5%.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 0.08 and EV/revenue 0.44 vs 0.6–1.1 in FY2022–25. The market value is only USD 32m, while debt is 184m (over 80% of EV); EBITDA is negative, so EV/EBITDA (historically 20–50) cannot be used. The low price reflects debt and impending dilution.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−26 of −35
- −8Debt and covenantsDebt of USD 184m against cash of 41m and a market cap of 32m. The TCW loan required a covenant pause to 31/12-2027, and the 10-K warns that failure to refinance could make the debt short-term and threaten going concern.
- −6Impending dilutionThe TCW agreement (29/7-2026): USD 55m in 8% convertible preferred shares (conversion about USD 0.50 = about 110m shares) plus 15.3m warrants at USD 0.01; together almost a doubling of the 119m shares, and TCW gets two of seven board seats.
- −6China, tariffs and geopoliticsProduct sales in China have fallen sharply, guidance was withdrawn in Q3 due to geopolitical unrest and tariffs, and management gives no revenue or EBITDA guidance for FY2027.
- −4Listing riskNasdaq notice 2/2-2026; the deadline 3/8-2026 was not met. Reverse split of 1:15–1:40 up for vote 6/10-2026; if shareholders vote no, both the TCW agreement and the Nasdaq plan fall.
- −2Price risk and bankruptcy scoreThe price has fallen 83% over 52 weeks, Altman Z-score -0.55, Piotroski 1.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Recurring service revenueService revenue grew 6% to USD 60.1m in Q4 and makes up 229m (57%) of annual revenue, a stable base from the installed machine fleet.
- +1Cost program ahead of targetThe transformation plan delivered over USD 20m in cost and margin improvements in FY2026 vs a target of 12m; operating costs in Q4 fell 15%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Radiation guns for cancer treatment (CyberKnife, TomoTherapy); fiscal year ends 30/6, so 'FY2026' = July 2025–June 2026. The recapitalisation with TCW (USD 55m in convertible preferred shares, 15.3m warrants at USD 0.01, reverse split 1:15–1:40) requires approval at an extraordinary meeting on 6/10-2026 and has not been completed; share count and dilution after it are estimates. Whether Nasdaq has granted a second 180-day period after the 3/8-2026 deadline is not confirmed. Interest on the TCW loan, Form 4 insider trades and largest owners not reviewed. No analysts on stockanalysis (forecast 404).
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