Rankings Pharma & medtech Schrödinger
Schrödinger
48
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin / profitability−8
- Quality of growth−5
- Forward multiple vs peers−5
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Raised guidance+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 48, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 26.19 USD
- Median analyst target
- 30.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +14.5%
- Analysts
- 7
- Target range
- 17.00 – 32.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +24%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−22 of −30
- −8Margin / profitabilityOperating loss TTM −$153m on $259m revenue (about −59% operating margin). The Q2 2026 profit ($6.0m, EPS $0.08) is purely non-operating: a $45.9m fair-value gain on Ajax shares; operations lost $41.5m, adj. EBITDA −$31m. Software gross margin squeezed to 71% by the hosted shift.
- −5Quality of growthReported software revenue fell 21% in Q1 and 10% in Q2 2026 (the hosted shift moves income from upfront to recurring). ACV grew only 4% in 2025; 2026 guidance +10–15%. Drug discovery revenue is one-off in nature: Q1 ($22.9m) was lifted by accelerated revenue recognition because a collaboration programme was dropped, Q2 ($23.0m) by a $10m Ajax milestone. Consensus expects total revenue about −5% in 2026.
- −4Future segment / own pipelineSGR-2921 (CDC7) was shut down in Aug 2025 after two deaths in phase 1. SGR-1505 (MALT1, Fast Track in Waldenström) and SGR-3515 (Wee1/Myt1, 65% disease control at ≥100 mg) are to be partnered after phase 1 – the company is in effect withdrawing from its own clinical development, and there is no partner deal as of Oct 2026. Value moves to milestones/royalties (e.g. Novartis up to $2.27bn, Simcere).
- −3Moat / AI competitionFEP+ (physics-based) is the industry standard, and Bunsen (agentic AI) is rolled out at BMS. But open-source models such as Boltz-2 (MIT/Recursion, MIT licence) claim near-FEP accuracy at up to 1,000x the speed, and AI-native rivals (Isomorphic, Recursion) will pressure pricing of computational tools over time.
- −2Capital allocation / ROICNegative return on invested capital throughout its history; net result 2025 −$103m (2024 −$187m). On the plus side: monetising equity stakes (Ajax/Lilly and others) brought $67m in proceeds in H1 2026, and costs are being cut (opex −6% in Q2).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−11 of −35
- −4P/S and EV/sales vs own historyP/S 6.95 (EV/sales 5.77) against 5.15 (4.06) at the end of 2025 and 6.77 in 2024; below the 2021–23 peaks (17.9/11.9). The share price has more than doubled from about €9.8 in February and sits 45% above the 200-day average – the multiple has risen without underlying earnings improving to match.
- −5Forward multiple vs peersForward P/S 7.62 on falling expected revenue (2026 consensus $241.5m) against Certara's forward P/S of 3.76 (EV/sales 3.67) – twice as expensive as the nearest profitable software peer. Tempus (9.5x) grows 22–25%, which Schrödinger does not.
- −2P/BP/B 5.7 against 3.6 at the end of 2025 and 3.3 in 2024 – the highest level in the data set (2021–2026).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−18 of −35
- −4Cash flow and cash runwayOperating cash flow H1 2026 −$48.9m (against +$91.9m a year earlier, lifted by a Novartis prepayment); FCF TTM −$130m. Cash incl. securities of $418.8m gives about 3 years of runway, but the 10-Q says the company 'will likely require additional capital'.
- −4Customer concentrationTwo customers accounted for 25% and 17% of revenue in Q2 2026 (21% and 20% in H1); two customers make up 27% and 23% of receivables.
- −3Customer behaviour / deferred revenueBMS has chosen not to pursue more targets in the collaboration (only one neurology target left as of 30 Jun 2026). Deferred revenue fell from $191.7m to $149.9m in six months – future drug discovery revenue is being drained.
- −3Insider tradingZero insider buys in the last 12 months. Karen Akinsanya (head of therapeutics) sold 31,599 shares at $29.37 (about $0.93m) on 17 Sep 2026 near the top; CEO Ramy Farid sold 43,000 shares at $12.33 (16 Apr 2026). Other sales are small tax-cover sales.
- −2DilutionShare count +2.4% q/q and +1.3% y/y; stock-based pay $17.9m in H1 2026. An ATM programme with $241.1m of unused capacity is an obvious tool after the share price rise.
- −2ExecutionQ1 2026 missed (EPS −$0.81 against −$0.56 expected), and Q2 beat only because of a one-off gain. Earlier execution failures: the SGR-2921 shutdown and ACV growth of only 4% in 2025.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashCash and securities of $418.8m against debt of $108m (mainly leases) = net cash of about $306m, about 17% of market value; plus $36.5m in equity stakes.
- +2Raised guidance2026 drug discovery guidance raised from $55–65m to $65–75m (5 Aug 2026); ACV guidance of $218–228m maintained. The raise is mainly due to the Ajax milestone, though.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price $23.90 (close 21 Oct 2026; intraday 22 Oct about $23.26). Q2 2026 (5 Aug): revenue $58.9m (+8%); EPS of $0.08 comes from a one-off $45.9m gain (fair value of Ajax shares on Lilly's acquisition) – operating loss $41.5m. Software revenue −10% (Q1 −21%) due to the hosted shift; 2026 ACV guidance $218–228m (+10–15%); drug discovery guidance raised to $65–75m. Cash incl. securities $418.8m at 30 Jun. 2026 consensus EPS −$1.50 (MarketBeat) / −$1.83 (StockAnalysis). Q3 figures (expected about 4 Nov 2026) not known. Not examined: ROIC history in detail, the 10-Q text on SGR-1505/3515 after Q1 (no partner deal found as of 22 Oct), litigation. Debt of $108m is assumed to be mainly lease obligations. Only 7 analysts.
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
