Rankings Construction & materials Akzo Nobel
Akzo Nobel
70
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- ROIC−4
- Governance (rejected cash bid)−4
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Margin turnaround+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 70, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 61.08 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 64.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +4.8%
- Analysts
- 16
- Target range
- 55.00 – 75.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +8%
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.3
- Forward P/E
- 14.9
- PEG
- 1.68
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has shrunk from EUR 10.85bn (2022) to 9.89bn TTM (−6% in a year). Organic growth in Q2 was only +2% and driven by price; volumes were flat, and in Deco volumes fell 4%.
- −4ROICROIC 6.4% vs a WACC of 7.3% and 11.3% in 2021; the return has been below the cost of capital in four of the last five years.
- −2Margin vs peersAdjusted EBITDA margin 14.9% in H1 and operating margin about 8% TTM – clearly below Sherwin-Williams and below Axalta's about 21%; the company's own medium-term target is just 'above 16%'.
- −1Capital allocationThe dividend has stood still at EUR 1.98 for five years, no buybacks since 2022, and EPS is EUR 3.71 TTM vs 4.46 in 2021, even with the gain from the India sale.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−3 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 13.9 vs 12.3–19.7 in 2021–25, EV/EBITDA 10.9 vs 11.7–15.3 and trailing P/E 15.3 vs 16.0–31.5 – at the bottom of history, but the history covers a period of falling revenue and ROIC.
- −2Peers and absolute levelEV/EBIT 15.8 and EV/FCF 22.1 with EUR 3.1bn of net debt; the forward P/E of 13.9 is in line with PPG and Axalta, which have higher margins. FCF yield about 6% – no real discount for a weaker business.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−10 of −35
- −4Governance (rejected cash bid)In June the board refused to negotiate over Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams' cash proposal of EUR 73 per share (about 28% above the current price) to protect the no-premium merger with Axalta; the stock fell 19% to EUR 53.74 when the consortium withdrew.
- −3Merger and integration (Axalta)A merger of equals without a premium: Akzo shareholders get 55%, Axalta's chairman becomes chairman, and the combined company moves to a sole NYSE listing after a transition period (risk of forced selling by European index funds). The synergy target of about USD 600m is to be realised over three years, and the EU decision is pending (deadline 22/10).
- −2DebtNet debt of EUR 3.1bn (2.9x EBITDA), gross debt/EBITDA 5.6 and interest cover 3.5; gross debt rose 1.7bn in H1 ahead of the special dividend of up to EUR 2.5bn, which increases net debt further when paid.
- −1Cash flowOperating cash flow in H1 2026 was only EUR 84m vs 122m a year earlier, and consensus expects FCF of just about EUR 360m in 2026 vs 606m in 2025.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Margin turnaroundThe fifth quarter in a row with a higher adjusted EBITDA margin (15.4% in Q2 vs 15.0%), comparable EBITDA +5%, and full-year guidance of at least EUR 1.47bn confirmed.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The share price includes an upcoming special dividend of up to EUR 2.5bn (about EUR 14.6 per share minus ordinary 2026 dividends), paid on completion of the Axalta merger; after payment net debt rises mechanically, while EV multiples are unaffected. The merger awaits EU approval (provisional deadline 22/10) and is expected to close in late 2026/early 2027; the share then moves to a pure NYSE listing after a period of dual listing. Forward EPS and forward P/E are adjusted (non-GAAP); reported EPS of 3.71 TTM is lifted by the gain on the sale of Akzo Nobel India (divestment of EUR 816m in 2025). The information on Nippon Paint/Sherwin-Williams' EUR 73 bid comes from one article and is not confirmed in the company's own announcements. Insider trading and litigation are not examined. Paints/coatings do not fit the industry list precisely (placed under Construction & materials, as decorative paint is about 40% of sales). Q3 results 22/10.
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