Rankings Pharma & medtech AlzeCure
AlzeCure
53
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−9
- Multiples vs own history−7
- Peers and absolute level−7
Strengths
- Validation from big pharma+4
- Net cash and runway+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 53, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 6.28 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +189%
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.3
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−19 of −30
- −9MarginThe operating profit of SEK 30m (TTM) is due entirely to Lilly's prepayment of 97m in Q2. The underlying operation costs about 17m per quarter with no recurring revenue, and there was a net loss every year in 2021–2025 (−SEK 35 to −78m).
- −4Quality of growthRevenue of SEK 97.3m in Q2 2026 (0 a year earlier) is a one-off upfront payment. Future income is milestones and royalties, which depend on the partners' development over many years.
- −4Capital allocationThe share count has risen 24–30% a year since 2021. In June 2026 a rights issue was made at SEK 1.31 (SEK 30.1m, 329% oversubscribed), with record date 12/6, three days after the Lilly deal was announced on 9/6. In August a directed issue to QuantumCell followed. That is 147.8m shares in total.
- −2Business model and moatWith 10 employees and the licensing model, AlzeCure retains only royalties: mid-single-digit percent from Lilly and high-single to low-double-digit from QuantumCell. The pain portfolio (ACD440, ACD137) still lacks a partner.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−14 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own historyP/B 10.35 is the highest in 2021–2025 (3.9–8.1), and the market value has risen from SEK 230m at the end of 2025 to approx. 1.09bn. The price is SEK 7.4 vs a 200-day average of 3.7.
- −7Peers and absolute levelEV of about SEK 0.88bn pro forma for two licenses with a total of USD 22m upfront (of which 5m as share purchases). Saniona has an EV of SEK 0.84bn with USD 42.5m upfront from Jazz, the license to Acadia and SEK 486m in cash.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−14 of −35
- −7Partner riskThe headline about a USD 2.2bn deal for ACD856 comes from QuantumCell, a small Danish company that appeared in December 2025 with a pre-seed round (Novo Holdings, Lundbeckfonden, Forbion) of unknown size. Only USD 7m was a cash licence payment, and phase 2 must be financed by QuantumCell.
- −4Price risk and momentumThe price has risen 227% over a year and 91% over three months (Nordnet) on First North with only about DKK 0.6m in daily turnover. Much of the good news is already in the price, and a pullback is likely if no new news arrives.
- −3Financing of pain projectsACD440 (topical TRPV1 antagonist) has orphan status in the EU and US and FDA guidance on a phase II/III study in erythromelalgia. Such a study will cost more than the current cash, unless a partner is found.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+6 of +15
- +4Validation from big pharmaEli Lilly licensed the global rights to Alzstatin ACD680 (gamma-secretase modulator) for USD 10m upfront, milestones of over USD 1bn and mid-single-digit royalties. The upfront payment has been received.
- +2Net cash and runwayAfter Lilly's USD 10m and QuantumCells' USD 12m (7m licence + 5m share purchase at SEK 4.91), cash is about SEK 215m pro forma. With a burn of about 17m per quarter, that lasts about 3 years, and debt is only 2m.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Stockanalysis shows 137.9m shares, but after the directed issue to QuantumCell (9.93m shares at SEK 4.91) there are 147.8m shares. Market cap at SEK 7.38 is therefore about SEK 1.09bn (about DKK 720m), not Nordnet's DKK 683m. Cash at 30/6 was only SEK 13.5m. The Lilly prepayment (USD 10m) was a receivable and came in after the period, as did QuantumCell's USD 12m in August, so cash is a pro forma estimate (about SEK 215m). The TTM profit is due entirely to the Lilly prepayment. Revenue growth is not meaningful (no revenue the year before) and is set to 0. No analysts (forecast 404). Insider trades and short share not reviewed in detail.
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