Rankings Pharma & medtech Viking Therapeutics
Viking Therapeutics
54
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Moat and future segment−7
- Competition and price pressure−6
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Clinical progress+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 54, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 26.83 USD
- Median analyst target
- 95.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +254.1%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 34.00 – 125.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −30%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss of USD 560m (TTM) vs 110m in 2024, and the Q2 2026 loss was USD 128m (R&D 115.8m vs 60.2m a year earlier). Operating cash flow −USD 418m TTM.
- −7Moat and future segmentObesity is the segment of the future, but VK2735 is a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist – the same mechanism as Lilly's tirzepatide, which already sells for about 49 bn USD a year. The oral version gave 12.2% weight loss in 13 weeks, but about 20% dropped out due to side effects, and the stock fell 41% on the day (August 2025). The whole company rests on one molecule; VK2809 (MASH) is stalled without a partner.
- −3Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 78m (2022) to about 125.7m after the September issue (+61%), and shares worth USD 1.1bn have been issued since 2023 – all burned or tied up in R&D. Share-based pay USD 37m TTM.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/B 8.2 vs 5.0–6.2 in 2022–2025 (pro forma approx. 6 after the issue). The market value is below the 2024 peak (USD 4.5bn), but only P/B can be compared, as there has never been earnings.
- −4Absolute price levelEV about USD 2.9bn (pro forma) for a phase 3 asset with no revenue; FCF yield -12.6%, no dividend. The price already factors in a significant probability of approval and a meaningful market share in a market with falling prices.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−17 of −35
- −6Competition and price pressureBy the time VK2735 can launch at the earliest (about 2028-29), there will be tirzepatide at about USD 346/month via TrumpRx, oral pills from Lilly (Foundayo) and Novo (Wegovy pill) and monthly agents from Amgen (MariTide) and Pfizer/Metsera. Viking has to compete as no. 5-6 on price against giants with their own production and sales force.
- −4Funding and dilutionTwo days after maintenance data (22/9-2026) Viking raised about USD 548m net: 9.0m new shares (+7.7%) at about a 16% discount and USD 259m in 2% convertible bonds (2032, conversion USD 50.75 = up to 5.1m shares). Cash covers phase 3, but hardly an own launch – more capital, a partner or a sale of the company is needed.
- −4Binary data risk and timelineTopline from VANQUISH-1 (approx. 4,500 participants) and VANQUISH-2 (approx. 1,000 with type 2 diabetes), both 78 weeks, is not expected until 2027; so no decisive phase 3 data will come in 2026. The maintenance figures of 97% and 90% come from individual dose groups with approx. 12 participants (pooled 90% and 85%).
- −2Price risk and short interest19.4% of the shares are sold short (12 days to cover). The price rose 36% to USD 40.85 on data 22/9 and has since fallen to USD 28.51 (−30% in two weeks); −12% over 52 weeks.
- −1Insider tradingCEO Brian Lian sold 233,409 shares for USD 7.7m in January 2026 (at the same time as new grants), and the COO and CFO each sold about 57,700 shares; no insider purchases found. Insiders own 2.5%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Net cashCash and securities of USD 502m at 30/6 plus approx. USD 548m from the issue; after Q3 spending and less the convertible debt, net cash is approx. USD 0.68bn (just under 20% of market cap). The company guides runway into 2028.
- +2Clinical progressBoth phase 3 studies are fully enrolled (VANQUISH-1 in November 2025, VANQUISH-2 in Q1 2026), the maintenance study was positive with gastrointestinal side effects at placebo level, and oral phase 3 starts in Q4 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Clinical-stage biotech with no revenue; financials through Q2 2026 (Q3 comes about 21-26/10-2026). Stockanalysis' share count (116.65m) predates the September 2026 issue: pro forma about 125.7m shares (market cap about USD 3.6bn at USD 28.51) plus up to 5.1m shares from convertible bonds. Pro forma cash about USD 0.94bn after Q3 spending (estimated) and convertible debt of USD 259m. Peer multiples for other obesity biotechs not systematically compared. The reel's claim of '10x in 2026' requires a market cap of about USD 36bn with no phase 3 data before 2027 - not realistic. Analysis, not investment advice.
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