Rankings Software, cloud & internet AppLovin
AppLovin
83
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Data practices, SEC and platform rules−7
- Quality of growth−3
- Moat−3
Strengths
- Buybacks+2
- Pricing power and margin expansion+2
- Broader customer base+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 83, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 228.85 USD
- Median analyst target
- 440.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +92.3%
- Analysts
- 33
- Target range
- 325.00 – 625.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −64%
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.6
- Forward P/E
- 12.9
- PEG
- 0.41
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−9 of −30
- −3Quality of growthGrowth is slowing quarter by quarter: +77% (Q2 2025), +68%, +66%, +59% and +53% in Q2 2026, when revenue of USD 1.92bn came in below both consensus and its own guidance. Management explained the miss by the timing of model improvements - growth thus depends on a black-box model continuing to improve. Q3 guidance of USD 2.055-2.085bn (+46-48%) was also below expectations.
- −2Future segmentE-commerce and the self-service AppLovin Ads Manager (opened more broadly in June 2026) are meant to carry growth beyond mobile games, but management itself says that creatives are 'the biggest obstacle', and the generative AI video ad tool is still under development. Awareness among e-commerce advertisers remains low.
- −3MoatEdgewater Research (23/9/2026) assesses that AppLovin's share of advertising budgets is no longer growing from an already high level, that MAX is approaching a ceiling, and that Unity's growing scale (Vector) is pressuring AppLovin's net spreads; Edgewater expects only 8–9% sequential growth in Q4. The number of Hold ratings has doubled from 3 to 6 since June.
- −1Capital allocationStock-based compensation rose to 85.8m $ in Q2 from 34.6m $ a year earlier (+148%). 1.1m shares were bought back for 551m $ in Q2 (approx. 500 $ per share) and 1.53bn $ in H1 - at prices around double the current level.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 15.4 versus 25–61 in the quarters of 2024–26 (lowest in five years was 22.7 in 2022) and EV/EBITDA 17.2 versus 18–55 in 2023–25 – cheap against its own history. Against peers it is only on par, however: Meta forward P/E 22.3 and EV/EBITDA 16.9, The Trade Desk 13.1 and 6.7. P/S 13.6 and P/B 29 assume that the operating margin of 77% can be held, and beta is 2.56.
- −1FCF yieldFCF yield 4.9% (TTM, FCF $4.53bn on a market value of $92.7bn); analysts expect FCF of $5.19bn in 2026, corresponding to about 5.6% – reasonable, but not a deep discount for a stock with these legal and platform risks.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−16 of −35
- −7Data practices, SEC and platform rulesAccording to Bloomberg (Oct 2025), the SEC's Cyber and Emerging Technologies Unit is examining whether AppLovin breached Apple/Google partner agreements through fingerprinting to target ads; the probe stemmed from a whistleblower and the short reports, and no conclusion has been reported. The entire business runs in apps from the App Store and Google Play - in 2021 Apple rejected apps with Adjust's code for the same practice. A platform intervention would hit the core.
- −3Children and ad contentOn 5 Oct 2026 San Diego County sued AppLovin for targeting obscene ads at children and collecting data from minors; the complaint builds on the short reports from Fuzzy Panda, Culper Research and Muddy Waters.
- −3Class actionNew securities lawsuit (class period 12 Feb-5 Aug 2026) over misleading statements about progress on the AI models and the video tool, after the stock fell about 20% on Q2; in addition, the older Quiero lawsuit (2023-25) over use of Meta data and inflated install numbers is pending.
- −3Insider tradingSales only: according to the lawsuit, CEO Adam Foroughi sold about $101.6m during the class period (including 90,704 shares at $460-466 in March and several sales at about $480-500 in June), director Eduardo Vivas about $74m and CTO Vasily Shikin about $30m in March - all close to the peak and before the miss.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2BuybacksBuybacks of USD 2.64bn over the past 12 months are clearly below FCF of USD 4.53bn (no dividend); the share count has fallen 1.8% in a year, and net debt has shrunk from USD 2.86bn (2024) to USD 0.46bn.
- +2Pricing power and margin expansionAdjusted EBITDA margin rose to 84% in Q2 from 81% a year earlier, while revenue grew 53%; operating margin 77% and ROIC 133% (TTM) – despite rising compute costs.
- +1Broader customer baseCiti counted 13,105 e-commerce customers globally as of 18/9-2026, +5.1% in a week, and ad spend reached a record 28% above Q4 2025 according to management - the customer base is expanding beyond mobile games.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The stock has fallen 56% over a year (277 $ on 9/10 versus a peak of 745.61 $) after the Q2 revenue miss and a new class action. The figures are clean continuing operations: the app/games business was sold to Tripledot in 2025 (407m $ in proceeds in the cash flow), so 2024-26 growth is platform growth. The SEC investigation into data practices (reported Oct. 2025) is neither confirmed nor closed, and the status of the state-level preliminary inquiries is unknown. The S&P 500 inclusion (Sept. 2025) and KKR's earlier sale have not been examined further. Q3 results 4/11-2026. Lead plaintiff deadline in the new lawsuit 16/11-2026.
Also in Software, cloud & internet
The highest scores in the same industry.
