Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Aegon
Aegon
83
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Legacy book in the US−3
- Earnings quality and profitability−2
Strengths
- Dividend growth+2
- Operating momentum+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 83, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 7.39 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 8.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +8.2%
- Analysts
- 13
- Target range
- 7.00 – 9.37 EUR
- 52-week change
- +12%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.0
- Forward P/E
- 7.9
- PEG
- 0.99
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−6 of −30
- −3Legacy book in the USUS Financial Assets (variable annuities, universal life and long-term care) is a capital-intensive run-off book; long-term care alone ties up just under half of the required capital in Financial Assets, and reserves peak only in the early 2030s. Aegon handles it with premium increases instead of sales.
- −2Earnings quality and profitabilityROE 11.1% (TTM) after 4% in 2021–2022 and −1.8% in 2023, below Allianz (19.6%) and ASR (12.2%); about 29% of net profit is Aegon's share of ASR's profit (about 0.27bn of EUR 0.94bn), which does not come in as cash beyond the dividend.
- −1Capital allocationDividend EUR 666m + buyback EUR 625m (TTM) = EUR 1.29bn, above net income of EUR 0.94bn and above Aegon's own FCF (EUR 392m in H1); the payout rests partly on sales of ASR shares and holding cash, not only on ongoing earnings.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 8.7 vs 5.9–7.6 in 2021–2025 and P/B 1.28 vs 0.33–1.10 – both record highs; the 5.4% dividend yield is at the bottom of 5.1–6.9%. The share price is +15% in a year and above its 200-day average (7.15).
- −1PeersForward P/E 8.7 and P/B 1.28 vs NN Group (9.8 and 0.98); a lower P/E but a higher P/B than NN despite lower solvency (169% vs 224%) and a riskier US legacy book.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−7 of −35
- −2Assumption reviewThe annual model and assumption review at Transamerica cost EUR 231m after tax in H1 2026 (customer behaviour: fewer lapses in variable annuities and weaker premium payment on life products) after negative variances in 2025; net profit (608m) was therefore flat.
- −2Move to the USAegon is moving the company to Delaware as Transamerica Inc. (EGM 8 Oct 2026) at a cost of about EUR 350m (about 40% booked) and switching to US GAAP; that brings execution risk, a new accounting basis and a risk of leaving Dutch and European indices.
- −1Management changeThe CFO has announced his departure in the middle of the relocation and the accounting change; the stock fell about 3% on results day despite better operating figures.
- −1Capital bufferGroup solvency is 169%, clearly below NN (224%) and ASR (222%); the US RBC ratio of 420% is only slightly above the 400% target, so the buffer against market falls is smaller than at the Dutch peers.
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Dividend growthThe interim dividend raised 11% to EUR 0.21; the dividend per share has risen from 0.17 (2021) to EUR 0.40 (2025), five years of growth in a row, and the dividend alone (666m) is covered by net profit.
- +1Operating momentumOperating result +9% to 804m and operating capital generation +27% to EUR 416m in H1; new US life insurance sales (WFG) rose 54%, and holding cash is EUR 1.7bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Insurance: payouts are measured against net profit and Aegon's own free cash flow (holding level); stockanalysis' FCF (1.74bn, P/FCF 6.6) includes insurance and investment flows and is not meaningful. The revenue forecast (−25% in 2026) is an IFRS 17/restructuring artefact. ROIC (3.7%) is not meaningful for an insurer. The trailing P/E of 12.2 is on reported EPS of 0.62; the forward P/E of 8.7 is on adjusted EPS (0.86). The ASR stake (about 24%, worth about EUR 3.5bn at ASR's market value of 14.7bn = about 30% of Aegon's market value) is equity-accounted: Aegon's share of ASR's net profit (about 0.27bn) is about 29% of Aegon's net profit, but only the dividend (about 0.17bn) comes in as cash. ASR's own findings (including a record valuation, disability, combined ratio) are NOT counted again; only the effect on Aegon's earnings quality. That Aegon can sell ASR shares to fund buybacks is flexibility but earns no plus. Share count −4.7% in a year matches buybacks of 625m (about 80m shares at about EUR 7.5). The price target (8.11) is only 4% above the price. The move to the US (EGM 8 Oct 2026, renaming to Transamerica Inc., US GAAP from the 2027 accounts) could lead to exits from European indices and forced selling – not quantified. The sale of Aegon UK has been announced, but price and timing have not been examined. Next report 18 Feb 2027.
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