Rankings Pharma & medtech Ascelia Pharma
Ascelia Pharma
41
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−8
- Regulatory risk−8
Strengths
- Regulatory validation+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.54 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 56m
- Cash runway
- 8 months
- Cash / debt
- 38.0 / 0.5m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +42%
Bull case
The FDA's minutes show that the CRL can be resolved with documentation and a reanalysis without a new study, and resubmission takes place in 2027 (class 2, about 6 months of review). A partner with payment on signing and on approval gives funding without heavy dilution. The market cap could then go from about 110 m to 400–800 m SEK (previously 400–1,000 m SEK before the CRL), i.e. 3–7x.
Bear case
FDA requires a new prospective re-read or a new phase 3 study. Then 100+ m SEK must be raised at 0.3–0.5 kr., the share count doubles or triples, and the share price could fall toward 0.2–0.3 kr. Without a partner and with only 8 months of cash, there is a real risk of an emergency issue.
Catalysts
- 2026-10 (approx. 30 days after 9/9)The FDA's official minutes from the Type A meeting and Ascelia's update on the path to resubmission of the Orviglance NDAbinary ascelia.com
- 5 Nov 2026Q3 report with cash and burn after the savingsgradual stockanalysis.com
- no date from the companyPartnership agreement on Orviglance and financing needed within about 2 quartersbinary ascelia.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – only about 8 months of cash, one product with a CRL, and the way forward depends on an FDA minutes that has not yet been published
Next financingCash lasts to about February 2027 (8 months from 30/6), slightly longer with the savings after the CRL. Money almost certainly has to be raised in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, probably with a targeted issue or rights issue, after the FDA minutes have clarified the way forward. If the FDA requires a new re-read or a new study, the amount will be larger.
Warrants & convertiblesNo outstanding warrant series or convertibles found; only small incentive programs. Note: Nordnet's market cap of DKK 56m corresponds to approx. 104m shares. With 133.54m shares the real value is approx. SEK 110m ≈ DKK 72m.
Insiders, last 12 monthsChairman Peter Benson bought shares in September 2025 (about 12 months ago), and CEO Magnus Corfitzen was awarded 24,975 shares in November 2025. The existing owner Salenia AB subscribed in the issue at 3.00 kr. in April 2026. No insider sale found.
Largest ownersNordnet Pensionsförsäkring 11.1%, Avanza Pension 5.2%, ÖstVäst Capital Management 3.2%, Salenia AB 1.5% (Börskollen/Affärsvärlden). Dispersed ownership dominated by retail investors.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 72m (Nordnet says 56). (2) Hot theme: no, an MRI contrast agent for the liver is a niche. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, the FDA minutes in October are binary. (4) Major partner: no, no partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 8 months. (6) Price near the bottom: partial, −77% in a year, but already up sharply from the bottom (50-day average 0.60).
Why this asymmetryA phase 3-complete product with an EV of about SEK 75m and a binary FDA event in a few weeks gives real upside if the CRL can be resolved without a new study. But cash runs out at the start of 2027, and there is no partner, so even a good minute is probably followed by a dilutive issue. The price has already risen sharply from the bottom.
How the score is built
From 100 to 41, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.54 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 1.15 SEK
- Upside to median
- +114.6%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 1.00 – 3.70 SEK
- 52-week change
- −83%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue. Operating loss SEK 59m and negative FCF of SEK 67m (TTM). The accumulated deficit is SEK 831m.
- −8Quality of growthThe whole company rests on one product (Orviglance, oral MRI contrast agent for the liver). The FDA issued a Complete Response Letter and wants more clinical data and better product documentation. The FDA questioned the re-reading of the images in the phase 3 study SPARKLE and the clinical added value over standard treatment.
- −3MoatOrviglance has orphan drug status and targets patients who cannot tolerate gadolinium. It is a narrow niche, and gadolinium agents dominate the market. Oncoral (chemo in tablet form) is at an early clinical stage.
- −4Capital allocationOperating loss of SEK 68–148m a year since 2021 without an approved product. Management raised money at SEK 3.00 in April 2026 (the stock is now 0.82), and there is still no commercial partner for Orviglance.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.18 vs 1.5–4.1 in 2021–2025. But 57m of the equity of 90m is intangible assets, so P/TBV is 3.2.
- −2PeersEV of about SEK 70-80m for a phase 3-complete product with orphan status is low vs peers. The price does, however, reflect the risk that the FDA requires a new study, and the upcoming issue.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−25 of −35
- −8Regulatory riskThe Type A meeting was held 9/9-2026, but the company will only comment on the way forward when the FDA's minutes arrive (approx. 30 days). If the FDA requires a new, prospective re-read or a new study, approval slips several years into the future.
- −7FundingCash was SEK 38.0m at 30/6, and operations used 14.0m in Q2. That lasts about 8 months (into 2027, as the company itself writes). A new issue at a fraction of the April price of kr 3.00 is likely.
- −5DilutionThe share count has risen from 96.1m (end-2024) to 133.5m (+39%) after issues in 2025 and April 2026. At a price of 0.82, each new SEK 50m requires about 60m new shares (+45%).
- −3Partner and commercialisationThe issues were meant to strengthen the negotiating position before partner agreements on Orviglance. After the CRL there is still no partner, and the negotiating position is weakened.
- −2Management and priceThe CFO is leaving after the CRL, as part of cost savings. The share price has fallen 77% in a year, but has risen sharply from the bottom ahead of the FDA minutes (RSI 70, 50-day average 0.60), so the binary outcome is not priced at the bottom.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Regulatory validationOrviglance has orphan drug status, a completed phase 3 study (SPARKLE), and the FDA accepted the NDA for review.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No revenue and no analysts (forecast 404). The FDA rejected Orviglance (CRL 2/7-2026), and the minutes from the Type A meeting on 9/9 are expected in early October, so the score may change quickly. Nordnet's market cap (DKK 56m) does not match the share count: 133.54m shares × SEK 0.822 = c. SEK 110m ≈ DKK 72m. Nordnet probably uses an outdated share count. Cash at 30/9 has not been published yet (Q3 comes 5/11).
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