Rankings Pharma & medtech Alzinova
Alzinova
41
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Dilution−8
- Funding−8
Strengths
- Regulatory validation+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.26 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 89m
- Cash runway
- 11 months
- Cash / debt
- 13.3 / 0.8m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +200%
Bull case
Fujirebio signs a licence for the blood test (a shorter route to market), and phase 2 starts on time. Once TO5/TO6 are exercised, the study is fully funded. A partner or licence on ALZ-101 with Fast Track could lift the diluted value from about SEK 0.24bn to 1–2bn (4–8x on the diluted value, more on today's market value).
Bear case
The share issue is taken up only by the guarantors, who sell their shares. TO5 at DKK 0.50 is not exercised because the price is below. Phase 2 cannot be funded without another issue at a lower price, and the Fujirebio track fizzles out. The share count triples, and the price could fall towards DKK 0.10–0.20.
Catalysts
- 6 Oct 2026The subscription period in the rights issue ends; the outcome (and the guarantors' share) is published shortly afterbinary mfn.se
- 12 Nov 2026Q3 reportgradual stockanalysis.com
- Turn of the year 2026/27First patient in the global phase 2 of ALZ-101 (about 120 patients)gradual mfn.se
- 4–18 Jan 2027Exercise of TO5 at SEK 0.50 (up to SEK 81m)binary mfn.se
- no date from the companyFujirebio is assessing a broader collaboration on a blood-based Alzheimer's test after the completed Amsterdam UMC studybinary mfn.se
Risk of going to zerohigh – the cash is small, the share issue is below the subscription price, and phase 2 depends on warrants whose exercise price is above today's price
Next financingThe ongoing share issue (subscription to 6/10/2026) is secured at 40.5m gross, about 32m net. With cash of about 45m and burn of about 12m a quarter once phase 2 starts, the money lasts about 11 months. After that everything depends on TO5 in January 2027 (DKK 0.50, above today's price) and TO6 in October 2027, or a new share issue.
Warrants & convertiblesFrom the share issue: 162.1m TO5 at DKK 0.50 (exercised 4–18/1/2027, up to SEK 81m) and 121.6m TO6 at 70% of VWAP 23/9–6/10/2027, max DKK 1.00 (Q4 2027). The guarantee premium can be paid in new units (15%). Fully diluted about 608m shares.
Insiders, last 12 monthsThe board and management have given subscription commitments of about SEK 0.5m in total in the September 2026 share issue (very little). No major insider purchases or sales found.
Largest ownersMaida Vale Capital 16.6%, Patrik Ahlvin 4.3%, Avanza Pension 3.8%, Özlem Erdogdu Gül 1.9% and Mangold Fondkommission 1.6% (before the share issue; Affärsvärlden/Nordnet).
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes, about DKK 89m. (2) Hot theme: yes, Alzheimer's and blood-based diagnostics. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, the Fujirebio decision, phase 2 start and TO5 in January. (4) Large partner: partly, only a non-binding letter of intent with Fujirebio. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, about 11 months of secured funding. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −64 to −73% and below the issue price.
Why this asymmetryThe small market value, the Alzheimer's theme, Fast Track and a possible Fujirebio deal in the near term give real upside. But funding is fragile, and 284m warrants plus guarantee shares mean that a large part of any price rise goes to new shares. The downside from a failed share issue is large.
How the score is built
From 100 to 41, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.33 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 1.20 SEK
- Upside to median
- +258.7%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 0.90 – 1.50 SEK
- 52-week change
- −77%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 69.8
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 0.15m vs a net loss of SEK 24m (TTM). The loss has grown from 13m in 2022 to 26m in 2025 and rises when phase 2 starts.
- −7Quality of growthThe evidence is a phase 1b study with 32 patients: an immune response in 31, only exploratory trends on cognition. Phase 2 (about 120 patients, primary endpoint after 52 weeks, follow-up for 92 weeks) has not yet enrolled anyone.
- −3MoatThe patented oligomer-specific AβCC technology is unique, but the Alzheimer's market has approved antibodies (Leqembi, Kisunla), and several vaccines are in development. The advantage has not been shown clinically.
- −5Capital allocationThe company lives off share issues with warrants (TO4 at DKK 0.32 in June, new issue in September). Issue costs are 8.7m of 51m (17%) plus a guarantee premium of 12–15%, and a phase 2 study is started with cash that is far from covering it.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B is 0.54 vs 0.7–2.5 in 2021–2025, but book value is mainly capitalised development. Diluted (about 608m shares after share issue and warrants) the value is about SEK 240m, not 85m.
- −2PeersAn EV of about SEK 72m before the share issue for an Alzheimer's vaccine with FDA Fast Track is low vs peers. The price reflects the funding risk, though, and fully diluted the discount is much smaller.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−25 of −35
- −8DilutionThe share issue gives up to 121.6m new shares (+60%) plus 162.1m TO5 (DKK 0.50, January 2027) and 121.6m TO6 (70% of VWAP, max DKK 1.00, October 2027). The share count could triple from 202.6m, and TO4 already gave 47.7m shares in June.
- −8FundingThe cash was SEK 13.3m at 30/6. The share issue is only 79% secured (40.5m gross), and the price of 0.393 is below the subscription price of 0.42, so the guarantors will probably take most of it. Phase 2 depends on TO5 (DKK 0.50) and TO6 being exercised, even though the TO5 price is above today's price.
- −4Clinical riskAlzheimer's vaccines have a long list of failures behind them. The first patient in phase 2 is expected around the turn of 2026/27, and the primary endpoint after 52 weeks means data only comes in several years.
- −2Partner and diagnosticsThe agreement with Fujirebio is only a non-binding letter of intent. The Amsterdam UMC study showed only a 'pattern' of lower reactivity in Alzheimer's patients, and the assay must be optimised and tested in a larger cohort.
- −3Share price riskShare price is down 64–73% over one year, is below the issue price and has an RSI of 31. There is a large overhang from 284m warrants and guarantors who may sell their shares.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Regulatory validationALZ-101 has IND approval and Fast Track status from the FDA, and phase 1b data has been published in Alzheimer's Research & Therapy.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
An Alzheimer's vaccine (ALZ-101) before phase 2 and without revenue; no analysts (forecast 404). The rights issue at DKK 0.42 per share runs to 6/10/2026, and the price (0.393) is below the subscription price. Stockanalysis' share count (202.6m) is before the issue, which could raise it to about 324m. On top come 284m warrants (TO5/TO6). P/B of 0.54 is misleading, because equity is mainly capitalised development (cash 13m vs equity 156m).
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
