Rankings Pharma & medtech aTyr Pharma
aTyr Pharma
55
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−8
- Phase 3 funding−7
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- Regulatory progress+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.00 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 196m
- Cash runway
- 25 months
- Cash / debt
- 58.9 / 11.3m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +17%
Bull case
Positive SSc-ILD data in Q1 2027 give a partner or an issue at a higher price that funds phase 3. As EV is negative (−16m USD), merely a return to cash (approx. 0.47 USD per share) could give +55%; 3–5x requires a partnership with a significant upfront for efzofitimod.
Bear case
SSc-ILD data are negative, no partner will fund a new phase 3 after the 2025 failure, and the company must raise USD 50–100m at a market cap of 30m – a dilution of 2–4 times. Without a reverse split before 30/11 the stock goes to OTC. Downside 50–80% per share.
Catalysts
- 5 Nov 2026Q3 report: cash, new CFO and financing plan for phase 3gradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Start of study activities for the new phase 3 study in pulmonary sarcoidosis (FVC endpoint)gradual globenewswire.com
- 30 Nov 2026Nasdaq deadline to reach USD 1 – reverse split or delistingbinary tipranks.com
- Q1 2027Topline data from the phase 2 study EFZO-CONNECT in SSc-ILD (lung disease in systemic sclerosis)binary biospace.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – cash exceeds the market cap and covers operations to 2028, but the phase 3 plan can only be carried out with heavy dilution
Next financingCash of USD 58.9m at 30/6-2026; operating spending of 9.4m in Q2, falling to approx. 6–7m per quarter after savings of approx. 13m a year from Q4 2026. The company guides runway to the end of 2028 – but without phase 3. The study with 372 patients requires new capital (issue, loan or partner) already from 2027, probably after SSc-ILD data in Q1 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertible loans found. The steady issuances of USD 18–30m per quarter in 2024–25 suggest an ATM (at-the-market) programme, which can be reused but is not verified in S-3/424B. Warrants and employee options have not been reviewed.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found; insiders own only c. 0.35% (Form 4 not reviewed in detail).
Largest ownersNot examined in detail; institutions own c. 40% and insiders 0.35% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 30m. (2) Hot theme: no – sarcoidosis and interstitial lung disease are niches. (3) Upcoming data: yes – SSc-ILD phase 2 in Q1 2027. (4) Major partner: no – only Kyorin in Japan (older agreement), no global partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – operations yes, phase 3 no. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −94% from the 2025 peak and below cash.
Why this asymmetryThe stock trades below net cash, and SSc-ILD data in Q1 2027 is a real binary catalyst. But efzofitimod has already failed once in phase 3, and the new plan requires capital that can only be raised with heavy dilution or a partner.
How the score is built
From 100 to 55, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 6.29 USD
- Median analyst target
- 120.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +1807.8%
- Analysts
- 9
- Target range
- 40.00 – 280.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −82%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss of USD 64m TTM and 10.9m in Q2 2026 (R&D 6.7m, administration 4.1m).
- −8Quality of growthThe only clinical asset, efzofitimod, missed the primary endpoint in the phase 3 study EFZO-FIT in pulmonary sarcoidosis in September 2025 (steroid dose 2.79 vs 3.52 mg, p=0.33); the stock fell 83% on the day. A new phase 3 study has to start from scratch.
- −4MoatEfzofitimod is first-in-class (NRP2 modulator), but without proven efficacy; in EFZO-FIT lung function was only 'preserved', and the new study is now built on FVC as the primary endpoint.
- −4Capital allocationThe share count rose 17% over a year and from 75.8 to 98.1m in two years via ongoing issuance (USD 18–30m per quarter in 2024–25) for the phase 3 program that failed; now 60% of employees are being fired.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own history and peersMarket cap USD 29.7m below net cash of 46m (EV -16m), P/B 0.61 vs 1-6 previously. Very cheap, but the market assumes the cash is used and that phase 3 requires heavy dilution.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−17 of −35
- −7Phase 3 fundingThe new phase 3 study (about 372 patients, 54 weeks) is not funded; the company itself writes that it requires new capital via an issue, loans, grants or partners. With a market cap of about USD 30m, that means massive dilution if no partner appears.
- −5Listing riskBelow USD 1 since autumn 2025; Nasdaq notice 4/12-2025 and extended deadline to 30/11-2026. At USD 0.30 a reverse split of at least 1:4 is required within two months, otherwise delisting.
- −2Management exodusBoth CFO Jill Broadfoot and General Counsel Nancy Denyes are leaving on 30/9-2026, in the middle of a restructuring and an upcoming capital raise.
- −3Share price riskThe price has fallen 62% over 52 weeks and halved since the end of June (0.60 → USD 0.30), even after the FDA agreement; 10.9% of shares are sold short.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+6 of +15
- +4Net cashNet cash approx. USD 46m (cash 57.4, debt 11.3) corresponding to approx. 155% of the market cap.
- +2Regulatory progressAgreement with the FDA in September 2026 on the protocol for a new global phase 3 study with FVC as primary endpoint; study activities start in Q4 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Clinical-stage biotech with no revenue; cash (USD 58.9m incl. restricted funds) covers operations to the end of 2028 according to the company, but NOT the new phase 3 study, which requires external funding; debt of 11.3m is probably leases; ATM program, warrants and the Kyorin deal (Japan) have not been reviewed in SEC filings; no reverse split announced despite the Nasdaq deadline 30/11-2026; 9 analysts with a price target of USD 2.86, which seems stale
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