Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Adyen
Adyen
87
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and returns−3
- Peers−3
- Governance−3
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Skin in the game+2
- Raised guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 87, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 830.70 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 1,200 EUR
- Upside to median
- +44.5%
- Analysts
- 35
- Target range
- 863.00 – 1,800 EUR
- 52-week change
- −44%
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.4
- Forward P/E
- 20.4
- PEG
- 1.20
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−6 of −30
- −3Margin and returnsThe operating margin has fallen from 59.4% (2021) and 50.0% (2022) to 46.5% (TTM), the gross margin from 75.9% to 68.5%, ROE from 31% to 21.3% and ROCE from 29.2% to 19.3%. Bigger, but not stronger per euro of revenue.
- −2Quality of growthGrowth is uneven: EMEA, the old core market, has slowed to 15% in H1 2026, and Digital grew 15%, while North America (+30%) and Platforms (+40%) carry the number. In addition, 1–2 percentage points of the 21–23% 2026 guidance come from acquisitions.
- −1Capital allocationFirst acquisitions (Talon.One and Orb) with no disclosed price; they dilute the EBITDA margin by about 1 percentage point in 2026. Capex is raised to about 7% of revenue because data-centre investments are pulled forward from 2027.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−6 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 20.3 vs 35–118 in 2021–25 and EV/EBITDA 11.4 vs 26–112 – far below its own history. But the history was bubble pricing, and EV is too low because the cash includes customer funds.
- −3PeersForward P/E 20.3 vs PayPal 9.8 and Global Payments 5.8; P/S 10.6. The premium requires growth of about 20% to hold.
- −2Absolute price levelEarnings yield 4.1% at a market value of EUR 27.4bn; on Adyen's own FCF (about EUR 1.1bn a year) the FCF yield is about 4%. No dividend or buybacks; the share count rises 0.5% a year.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−11 of −35
- −3GovernanceCFO Ethan Tandowsky left on 31/8 to go outside fintech; an interim CFO runs finance, and Klarna's CFO Niclas Neglen only starts on 1/2/2027 (requires DNB approval and an extraordinary general meeting). The stock fell 4.7% on the news on 24/9.
- −3GuidanceQ4 2025 missed by about 2% on revenue and volume, and the 2026 guidance (20–22%) was below the earlier ambition of growth in the low-to-mid twenties and about 5% below consensus on margin; the stock fell 17%.
- −3Customers are shiftingThe take rate was 16.2 bp in H1 2026: volume grew 24%, but net revenue only 19% (21% in constant currency), because the largest customers move down to cheaper price tiers. The goal of stabilising the take rate around 16.5 bp has not been met. The more volume, the lower the price per transaction – payment processing is becoming more of a commodity.
- −2Customer concentrationOne large customer left in H2 2025: volume growth was 12% including and 19% excluding this customer. Single customers can move growth by several percentage points.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+6 of +15
- +2Net cashNo financial debt (only leases, debt/EBITDA 0.3) and equity of EUR 5.9bn, almost all in cash; the EUR 12.4bn cash pile does include customer funds, though.
- +2Skin in the gameFounder Pieter van der Does is co-CEO, and insiders own 4.5% of the shares.
- +1Raised guidance2026 growth guidance raised to 21–23% in constant currency after H1 (incl. 1–2 percentage points from acquisitions); the margin target of over 55% in 2028 is maintained.
- +1Diversified baseNew large customers in H1 (OpenAI, Xiaomi, Aritzia, GOV.UK Pay); 486 customers use several channels at scale, and 293,000 platform customers are active.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
stockanalysis shows FCF of −EUR 152m (TTM), but the figure is distorted by customer funds in operating cash flow and a capex item that does not match Adyen's own EUR 64m in H1; Adyen's own FCF was EUR 553m (86% of EBITDA), so no deduction has been made for cash flow. The EUR 12.4bn of cash includes customer funds, so EV/EBITDA is too low. New CFO only from February 2027; insider trading has not been examined
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