Rankings Financial data & insurance broking AXA
AXA
87
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Quality of growth−2
- Softening prices in commercial lines−2
Strengths
- Raised targets+2
- Dividend and buybacks+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 87, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 43.03 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 50.70 EUR
- Upside to median
- +17.8%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 42.00 – 77.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +14%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.0
- Forward P/E
- 9.9
- PEG
- 1.57
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−4 of −30
- −2Quality of growthRevenue grew only 2.2% TTM and 3.8% in 2025; underlying EPS of +8% in H1 2026 is partly lifted by buybacks (share count −5.0% in a year), and reinsurance income fell 9%.
- −1ProfitabilityUnderlying ROE of 14–16% (2026 target at the top) and ROIC 7.5%; solid, but below Allianz (19.6%) and Zurich (25.7%), and ROE was only 7.5–13.4% in 2021–2025.
- −1Business mixBroad multiline model with commercial and specialty insurance in AXA XL alongside personal P&C, life and health; AXA XL is the most cyclical part and is already running with declining reinsurance revenue.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 10.2 vs 7.9–10.1 in 2021–2025 and P/B 1.74 vs 0.75–1.57 (both records); dividend yield 5.3% vs 6.0–8.2%. The higher ROE (14.9% vs 7.5–13.4%) explains part of it, but the re-rating has been taken.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−4 of −35
- −2Softening prices in commercial linesCommercial insurance prices are soft: property −7% and liability +4–5%, both below claims inflation according to management, and AXA XL is 'steering the cycle'. The combined ratio of 90.1% comes under pressure when prices fall below the claims trend.
- −1Natural disasters and climateClimate losses in France accounted for 5.6% of premiums vs 3.5% for the group in H1, and the conflict in the Middle East caused an estimated loss of about EUR 100m, mainly IBNR reserves.
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised targets2026: underlying EPS growth at the top of 6–8% and ROE at the top of 14–16%. New plan 'Growing Forward' (15 Sep) raises the target to 7–9% annual EPS growth 2027–2029, ROE of 15–17% and over EUR 10bn in operating profit before tax vs. about 8.6bn in 2026.
- +2Dividend and buybacksFixed payout of 75% of underlying earnings (60% dividend + 15% buyback), dividend raised 7.9% and share count −5.0% in a year; total shareholder return 10.3%, Solvency II 218%. The TTM payout (12.9bn) exceeded net income (9.9bn) because an extra buyback of up to EUR 3.8bn (July 2025–Feb. 2026) was funded by the AXA IM sale, which at the same time costs about 0.4bn a year in underlying earnings, so only 2 points.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Insurance: FCF (stockanalysis 14.5bn) is not meaningful because it includes customer funds; the payout is measured against net income. Stockanalysis' TTM net income (9.9bn, EPS 4.79) includes the gain on the sale of AXA IM to BNP Paribas; underlying EPS for 2025 was 3.86, and stockanalysis' revenue forecast (+20% in 2026) is an accounting artefact. Trailing P/E on the statistics page (11.9) does not match market cap/net income (about 9); forward P/E is used in T2. Peers: forward P/E 10.2 and P/B 1.74 at ROE 14.9% are cheaper than Allianz (13.3/2.39), Generali (13.0/1.87) and Zurich (14.4/3.27), so there is no peer deduction. AXA XL's reserve history, the interest-rate risk of life insurance and the holding of French government bonds have not been investigated separately. Consensus EPS is adjusted (underlying). H2/9M figures 29 Oct.
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