Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Capital One
Capital One
85
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Return on equity−3
- Capital allocation−2
- Quality of growth−2
Strengths
- Buybacks and dividends below earnings+3
- Synergies on track+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 85, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 210.77 USD
- Median analyst target
- 252.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +19.6%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 225.00 – 290.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −4%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.5
- Forward P/E
- 9.2
- PEG
- 0.86
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−7 of −30
- −3Return on equityROE only 9.0% (TTM) and 2.4% in 2025 vs 13-20% in 2021-2022; GAAP EPS of USD 16.19 (TTM) vs 26.94 in 2021. Q2 GAAP EPS 4.73 vs adjusted 5.81, because amortisation of Discover intangibles costs about USD 0.5bn pre-tax per quarter.
- −2Capital allocationThe share count is up 52% in a year, because Discover (about USD 35bn) was paid for with shares, and Brex (USD 5.15bn) half with shares; two large acquisitions in a year dilute existing shareholders.
- −2Quality of growthRevenue +102% (TTM) was bought via Discover; the old Discover card book is in 'brownout' and fell 1.5%, and management expects the bottom only around Q4 2026.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.18 vs 0.68–1.36 in 2021–2025 (upper half), P/TBV 2.25 due to Discover goodwill, and forward P/E 9.2 vs 5.75–12.2. No clear discount to history, even though ROE is lower.
- −2PeersSynchrony trades at P/TBV 1.92 and forward P/E 7.6 with ROE of 20.8%; Capital One costs P/TBV 2.25 and forward P/E 9.2 with ROE of 9.0%. The premium assumes that the synergies and network value are delivered in full.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−9 of −35
- −2Regulation: credit card interest-rate capPresident Trump demanded in January 2026 a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for a year; the stock had its biggest one-day fall in nine months. A cap probably requires Congress, but the political risk hits the core of the business (credit cards are by far the largest segment).
- −2Credit quality and provisionsThe loss rate on US cards was 4.71% in Q2 (improved), but the quarter was lifted by a USD 662m reserve release, and coverage was lowered to 5.02%; in a consumer slowdown that effect reverses.
- −2Legal legacy from Discover10-Q for Q2 2026: SEC investigation into Discover's card misclassification, an amended shareholder lawsuit (motion to dismiss filed 30 Apr 2026) and the interchange litigation with Visa and Mastercard; the FDIC previously ordered at least USD 1.225bn in repayments.
- −2Integration riskThe bank is 14 of 24 months into the Discover integration (only about a third of cost synergies realized) and has also integrated Brex; CET1 fell 70 bp to 13.7% in Q2 due to buybacks, Brex (about 40 bp) and higher risk-weighted assets.
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Buybacks and dividends below earningsBuybacks of USD 2.7bn in Q2 and the dividend raised 33% to USD 3.20 annually; the payout is only 20% of earnings, so the distribution is well below earnings.
- +1Synergies on trackDebit synergies from the move to the Discover network are fully in operation, and the target of USD 2.5bn in total synergies is maintained; an own payment network is a rare advantage among card issuers.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Q3 report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close) and is not included; data as of 16 Oct 2026. Bank: EV, ROIC and FCF are not meaningful; valuation on P/TBV and P/E. Discover was acquired in May 2025 (share-funded), so the 2025 figures are distorted by merger costs and day-1 provisions, and the P/B history before 2025 is not directly comparable (goodwill). P/TBV history before the merger has not been retrieved. Brex (USD 5.15bn) closed in Q2 2026. The status of the proposal for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates is not clarified in the sources. Insider trading has not been investigated.
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