Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Carlsberg
Carlsberg
78
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−5
- Debt−4
- Future segment−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Dividend from FCF+2
- Insider buying+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 78, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 999.60 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 1,050 DKK
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 880.00 – 1,550 DKK
- 52-week change
- +32%
- P/E (trailing)
- 20.7
- Forward P/E
- 14.8
- PEG
- 1.52
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−7 of −30
- −3Future segmentBeer in mature markets is stagnating: volume in Western Europe +0.1% and in Asia 0.0% in H1. China (a large part of Asia) faces more competition; Jefferies downgraded on growth concerns. Growth comes from soft drinks (+9%) and alcohol-free (+11%).
- −2ROIC and capital allocationThe Britvic deal (about DKK 29bn) has pushed ROIC from 16.1% (2023) to 13.0% (2025) and 10.9% TTM, and lifted net debt/EBITDA from 1.9x (2024) to 3.5x (2025).
- −2Quality of growthOrganic revenue only +2.7% and organic volume +1.7% in H1; organic operating profit (+5.9%) is carried by price/mix and costs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 12.7 vs 11.9–21.7 in 2021–25 (13.5 in 2025, 11.9 in 2024); the previously cited 'historical 16.5–21' left out the latest years. EV/EBITDA 8.8 vs 8.6–13.9; P/FCF 14.5 vs 10.7–19.5; EV/FCF 21. At the low end of its own history and in line with Heineken, but for low growth and high debt.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−8 of −35
- −4DebtNIBD DKK 56.8bn and NIBD/EBITDA 3.0x vs a target of 2.5x (down from 3.9x). Debt/FCF 7.4, quick ratio 0.51, Altman Z 1.51, and buybacks have stopped (DKK 2.0bn in 2024, 0 in 2025).
- −3Customers are shifting (China/Asia)Asia delivered 0% organic volume in H1; management calls the China weakness weather-related and temporary, while Jefferies sees competition and downgraded from buy to hold (14/9).
- −1GovernanceThe Carlsberg Foundation holds the voting majority through the A shares, so minority shareholders have limited influence on capital allocation.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+7 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceGuidance for organic operating profit growth raised from 2–6% to 4–6% in 2026; Britvic synergies are coming faster than planned (about 80% by the end of 2026).
- +2Dividend from FCFThe dividend (DKK 3.8bn, 3.4% yield) is covered by FCF of DKK 8.2bn TTM (FCF payout 47%); free operating cash flow in H1 of DKK 3.7bn vs 2.9bn a year earlier.
- +2Insider buyingCEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen bought 2,000 B shares for about DKK 1.69m on 14/9/2026, the day of Jefferies' downgrade.
- +1Diversified baseActive in many markets (Western Europe, Asia, Central Europe and India), where Central Europe and India are growing (+6.2% volume).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Jefferies downgraded from buy to hold on 14/9 on growth and China. Leverage (3.0x) is still above the 2.5x target, and buybacks are paused after Britvic. The Baltika lawsuit from the old list is no longer relevant: the cases were closed with the sale in December 2024. The EPS jump in 2026e (+44%) reflects a low 2025 base after impairments.
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