Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Carrefour
Carrefour
76
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−5
- Multiples vs own history and peers−4
- Competition and price war in France−4
Strengths
- Cost savings and earnings+2
- Dividend from FCF+1
- Portfolio focus+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 76, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 13.11 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 16.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +22.0%
- Analysts
- 15
- Target range
- 8.00 – 19.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- −0%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.6
- Forward P/E
- 7.6
- PEG
- 1.04
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−15 of −30
- −5MarginThe operating margin is only 2.6% (1.9% in H1 2026) and the net margin 0.9%; the gross margin has fallen from 19.7% in 2021 to 17.8% TTM and fell a further 28bp in H1 due to price investments and the shift to franchising.
- −3
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has been flat at EUR 83–85bn since 2022, and analysts expect −2.2% in 2026 after disposals; like-for-like in Q2 only +1.0% in France and +0.4% in Brazil.
- −2Future segmentHypermarkets – Carrefour's core format – are under structural pressure, and growth must come from franchise, which gives a lower gross margin; France makes up half of revenue (43 of 85bn EUR).
- −2Capital allocationThe purchase of Cora and Match (about EUR 1.4bn in 2024) still produced a loss of EUR 75m in H1 2026 (80m a year earlier); impairments and restructuring cost EUR 496m in 2025, and reported net result was only 319m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 9.2 vs 7.0–10.3 in 2021–25 (mid-range after a share price rise of 28% in a year); EV/EBITDA 6.3 vs 7.7–8.7; P/FCF about 7.5 on the company's own FCF. Discount to Ahold Delhaize and Tesco, but analysts' average price target is only 3.8% above the share price.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−10 of −35
- −4Competition and price war in FranceThree price-cut waves of 500+ items each have only kept market share stable against Leclerc and Lidl, and gross margin fell 28 bp in H1; ROC growth in France comes from cost savings.
- −3DebtIncl. leasing, net debt is EUR 16.6bn (4.6x EBITDA), interest coverage 3.4x and current ratio 0.90; net financial debt excl. leasing is 5.8bn, and free cash flow was −EUR 1.99bn in H1 (seasonal).
- −3Macro in Brazil and ArgentinaHigh interest rates in Brazil weigh on consumption (LFL +0.4% in Q2 after a weak Q1), and Argentina had falling volumes in H1; the sale of Argentina was abandoned as the bids were too low.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Cost savings and earningsSavings of EUR 490m in H1 (on track for 1bn annually), SG&A -30 bp, ROC +4.0% and adjusted net profit +26.8%; the 2026 targets (margin +25 bp, higher FCF, EPS growth at the top of single digits) are confirmed.
- +1Dividend from FCFThe dividend (EUR 0.97, EUR 524m paid TTM) is covered by the company's free cash flow of EUR 1,565m in 2025, and there are no buybacks in 2026.
- +1Portfolio focusItaly and Romania have been sold, and the group is concentrating on France, Spain and Brazil, where it has leading positions; Spain increased ROC by 7%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Grocery retail does not fit the industry list exactly: placed under 'Consumer: food, beverages & restaurants' as the nearest category. Stockanalysis' FCF (EUR 2.45bn, P/FCF 4.8) is before leases and is not Carrefour's own measure; the company's 'cash-flow libre net' was EUR 1,565m in 2025 (P/FCF about 7.5), and the company's figure is therefore used. Net debt: EUR 5.8bn excluding leases (company figure) vs 16.6bn including leases at stockanalysis. Adjusted net profit (EUR 345m in H1) is far above reported (30m). Stockanalysis shows +6.4% more shares over a year; this is not confirmed (the 2025 dividend was paid in cash) and is not included. Argentina, Belgium and Poland are 'non-core', and a sale of Argentina was abandoned. Insider trades and credit rating have not been investigated. Q3 revenue about 23 Oct 2026.
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