Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Heineken
Heineken
78
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- ROIC and capital allocation−3
- Quality of growth−3
- Multiples vs own history and peers−3
Strengths
- Buybacks and dividend from FCF+2
- Price strength/brand+1
- Cost programme+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 78, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 81.26 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 89.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +9.5%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 70.00 – 126.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +21%
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.8
- Forward P/E
- 14.5
- PEG
- 1.39
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −3ROIC and capital allocationROIC fell from 9.8% (2023) to 5.8% (2024), 7.3% (2025) and 6.5% TTM – only slightly above WACC of about 5.6%. Impairments on equity holdings (EUR 687m in 2024) and the FIFCO purchase for USD 3.2bn (completed Jan. 2026) have weighed on the return on capital.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue fell in both 2024 (−1.8%) and 2025 (−3.6%); in H1 2026 organic growth was only 2.7%, and consolidated volume rose just 0.4% – total volume (+1.6%) is lifted by licence volume (+23%) in China and India, which generates far less earnings.
- −2MarginReported operating margin 11.9% TTM vs 13.9–14.1% in 2021–22, and net margin only 7.7% (15.2% in 2021). The lifted beia margin (14.6%) rests on cost savings, not volume.
- −2Future segmentBeer in mature markets is stagnating: Europe volume −0.6% in H1, and analysts questioned China, where the beer market is falling. Growth has to come from Vietnam, Ethiopia, India and Nigeria with higher currency and macro risk.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 12.6 vs 13.8–25.2 in 2021–25 (the lowest in the period); EV/EBITDA 9.7 vs 10.2–16.1; EV/EBIT 15.9 vs 15.1–23.9; P/FCF 9.6 vs 11.6–26.1. Cheap vs its own history and in line with Carlsberg (forward P/E 12.7), but the debt makes the EV multiples less low, and FCF is expected to fall to about EUR 2.9bn in 2026 (FCF yield about 7.6%).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−8 of −35
- −3Customers are on the move (Americas)Americas volume fell 3.4% in H1 with flat revenue: declines in Mexico in a weak consumer economy, the Brazilian beer market −3.6% and subdued consumer confidence in the US. Management declared itself dissatisfied with the region, which is about a third of revenue.
- −3DebtNet debt/EBITDA 2.6x after H1 (above the target of below 2.5x) after FIFCO; stockanalysis shows net debt of EUR 17.8bn (3.2x EBITDA), current ratio 0.75 and quick ratio 0.51. Management itself said that pro forma leverage is approaching the ceiling for the rating.
- −1Management changeNew external CEO Rafa Oliveira takes over 1/10/2026 for four years; analysts expect him, as an outsider, to implement major changes (transition and execution risk), and the share closed at its lowest level since June (EUR 69.48).
- −1GovernanceHeineken Holding (controlled by the de Carvalho-Heineken family via L'Arche Green) owns just over 50% of Heineken N.V.; the free float is only about 259m of 547m shares, so minority shareholders have limited influence.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Buybacks and dividend from FCFBuyback EUR 899m and dividend EUR 1,260m TTM (EUR 2.16bn in total) are covered by FCF of EUR 3.97bn; share count fell 1.5% in a year, and the second tranche of the programme, EUR 1.5bn, is under way.
- +1Price strength/brandThe Heineken brand grew 5.3% in volume in H1 with double-digit growth in 18 markets, and net revenue per hectolitre rose 2.3%.
- +1Cost programmeGross savings at the upper end of EUR 400–500m and about 3,000 fewer FTEs in H1; the beia operating margin rose 55 bp to 14.6%, and cash conversion was 97%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Management reports 'beia' figures (before exceptional items): beia operating margin of 14.6% in H1 vs reported operating margin of 11.9% TTM at stockanalysis; forward P/E (12.6) is based on adjusted EPS. The fall in share count (−1.5%) is consistent with buybacks of EUR 899m in the cash flow. BofA cut its price target from 88 to 76 EUR (Sept.), while Jefferies and Bernstein raised theirs – price targets enter only via the formulas. New CEO Rafa Oliveira (formerly JDE Peet's) takes over 1/10/2026. Analysts' FCF estimate for 2026 (2.9bn) is far below TTM FCF (4.0bn).
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