Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Casino
Casino
16
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- New restructuring and dilution−22
- Margin−12
- Multiples vs own history−8
Strengths
- No documented strengths.
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 1
- Price
- 1.28 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 513m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 713.0 / 1,690.0m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
The FRH proposal is adopted with a capital increase in which the minority can participate, EBITDA after rent doubles as in H1 (109 m vs 55 m), and net debt falls to under 1 bn. Even then existing shares will be heavily diluted; a 3–10x on the current share requires the restructuring to avoid debt conversion – there is nothing to suggest that.
Bear case
The TLB creditors' proposal is carried out, or the court revokes the 2024 plan: the creditors get 99.9%, and the current shareholders are left with about 0.1% – in practice a price close to zero. Even the FRH proposal with 610m converted against a market cap of 69m can give −80–95% for the current shares.
Catalysts
- 30 Sep 2026Covenant test (leverage 6.47 vs limit 6.11) – the result and any waiver will be published with the Q3 revenuebinary lyoncapitale.fr
- H2 2026 (no fixed date)The Commercial Court's ruling on amending the sauvegarde plans and the TLB creditors' demand for annulment – decides who owns Casino and how much current shareholders retainbinary kohenavocats.fr
- Mar 2027Maturity of the Term Loan B of 1.4 bn EURbinary pointsdevente.fr
Risk of going to zerohigh – second restructuring in three years, covenant breach, EUR 1.4bn matures in March 2027, and both plans on the table are, in the company's own words, massively dilutive.
Next financingLiquidity of EUR 713m (including undrawn credit lines) at 30/6-2026 and cash burn of 132m in H1 (66m per quarter) would by themselves give about 32 months, but the 1.4bn Term Loan B matures in March 2027 (about 6 months), and the operating credit lines expired in September 2026, so runway is set at 6 months. The solution is an amendment of the sauvegarde plans with debt conversion: the FRH proposal (610m converted, 550m in capital increases, FRH 66.8%) or the TLB proposal (1.36bn converted, 400m in new money, creditors 99.9%). In both cases the minority shareholders (about 47%) are left with a small fraction; a new reverse split is likely. Completion expected in H2 2026 after court approval.
Warrants & convertiblesFrom the 2024 plan there are warrants to creditors and FRH (not mapped in detail). The coming plan change involves converting 610 m–1.36 bn EUR of debt into shares – far above the current market cap of about 69 m.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail; no insider purchases found in the sources read.
Largest ownersFrance Retail Holdings (FRH, Daniel Kretinsky) about 53%; institutions about 15% according to stockanalysis (including former creditors from 2024); free float about 153 m shares (38%).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 69m. (2) Hot theme: no – French grocery retail. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – the court's decision on the plan amendment, but it is mostly negative for shareholders. (4) Major partner: partial – Kretinsky/FRH is the main shareholder, but mainly protects its own position. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – debt conversion pending. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −65% in a year and −99.99% since 2021 adjusted for reverse split.
Why this asymmetryThe stock is a residual item in a restructuring where the debt (1.69bn) is 25 times market value, and both proposals dilute massively. Operations are improving, but the gain goes to creditors and FRH. Analysts' price target (EUR 0.05) is 70% below the price.
How the score is built
From 100 to 16, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.17 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 0.05 EUR
- Upside to median
- −70.6%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 0.05 – 0.05 EUR
- 52-week change
- −52%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −12MarginNet result −EUR 205m in H1 2026 on revenue of 3.97bn; adjusted EBITDA after rent only 109m. The operating margin (EBIT) has been around 0% or negative since 2024, and the group has made a loss every year since 2020.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue fell 2.7% in H1 2026 (+0.4% for comparable stores) and has shrunk from EUR 9.7bn (2022) to about 8bn after the sale of hypermarkets and foreign assets. Cdiscount falls year after year (2.0bn in 2021 to 1.0bn).
- −4MoatFrench grocery retail is marked by hard price competition from Leclerc, Carrefour, Lidl and Intermarché; Casino has lost its hypermarkets and is left with convenience stores and Monoprix in the big cities. Monoprix is a strong brand, but does not give enough pricing power to carry the debt.
- −6Capital allocationRepeated value destruction: the 2024 restructuring gave dilution of over 30,000% and a 1:100 reverse split, and only two years later the debt must be restructured again. Cash burn of 132 m in H1 2026 after 116 m in investments and 102 m in interest.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.07 and EV/EBITDA 3.3 vs 5.8–18 in 2020–2024 look cheap, but EBITDA before rent is misleading: EV (market value approx. 69m + net financial debt 1.69bn) vs EBITDA after rent (approx. 220m annualised) gives approx. 8x for a business without profit. The stock is a residual value that the creditors can take.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−33 of −35
- −22New restructuring and dilutionCasino is negotiating a change to the sauvegarde plans: FRH wants to convert EUR 610m of debt and raise 550m (FRH up to 66.8%), the TLB creditors want to convert 1.36bn and take 99.9%. The company itself writes that both solutions are massively dilutive for current shareholders. The Term Loan B of 1.4bn falls due March 2027.
- −6Lawsuit from creditorsThe TLB lenders refused to extend their consent and on 6/8-2026 brought a case at the commercial court in Paris to have the 2024 sauvegarde plan revoked; the court must at the same time rule on the plan amendment.
- −5Liquidity and covenantsLiquidity fell from 1bn to EUR 713m in six months, net financial debt rose 197m to 1.69bn, and the leverage ratio (6.47) was above the covenant limit (6.11) before the test on 30/9-2026. Operating credit lines expired 24-29/9-2026.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 0 findings±0 of +15
- No findings recorded.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). French grocery group (Monoprix, Franprix, Naturalia, Casino convenience stores, Cdiscount) in its SECOND financial restructuring in three years: after the accelerated safeguard in 2024 (shareholders diluted about 99.7%, 1:100 reverse split, Kretinsky vehicle FRH took over), an amendment to the safeguard plans is now being negotiated. FRH (about 53%) proposes converting EUR 610m of debt and capital increases of EUR 550m, while the TLB creditors propose converting EUR 1.36bn and 99.9% of the capital to themselves. Both are 'massively dilutive' for current shareholders. Stockanalysis' financial figures are outdated (latest period June 2025), so H1 2026 figures are taken from the company's announcement via the press (30/7-2026). Market cap calculated myself: 400.2m shares × EUR 0.1718 = EUR 68.8m (about DKK 513m; Nordnet shows 521). The outcome of the lawsuit on annulment of the 2024 plan and the status after the 24/9-2026 deadline are not clarified in the sources read. Insider trades not investigated.
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