Rankings Software, cloud & internet Cellnex
Cellnex
70
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Margin (loss-making)−7
- Debt and refinancing−5
- Multiples vs own history and peers−4
Strengths
- Contract renewals+1
- FCF turnaround+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 70, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 26.27 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 35.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +33.2%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 21.00 – 45.80 EUR
- 52-week change
- −3%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−11 of −30
- −7Margin (loss-making)Net loss of €343m TTM (net margin −8.2%) and losses every year since 2021; operating margin is only 15.5% due to depreciation of €2.7bn, and ROIC is 1.9% vs a WACC of 5.9%.
- −2Quality of growthAfter the acquisition wave of 2019–22, reported revenue growth has fallen to 1.2% in 2025 and 2.0% TTM; organic growth of 5.0% in H1 2026 rests largely on inflation indexation and net growth in the number of tenants (PoPs) of 4.9%.
- −2Capital allocationShareholder distribution in 2026 has been raised to EUR 1.0bn (EUR 500m dividend + buybacks), while the company's own FCF guidance is only EUR 600–700m – the distribution is partly financed by divestments and debt at net debt/EBITDA of 7.8x.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and peersEV/EBITDA 11.2 and P/B 1.2 are the lowest in 2021–25 (EV/EBITDA 15.8–33.0; P/B 1.35–2.2), but debt makes up 57% of enterprise value, so the stock is leveraged and not cheap on full FCF: about 4.2% FCF yield on guidance of €600–700m, and EPS is only expected to turn positive (€0.02) in 2027.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −5Debt and refinancingNet debt €20.3bn (7.8x EBITDA including leases) and interest cover only 1.1x; average cost of debt is just 2.1% with a 4.4-year maturity, so refinancing at today's rates will lift interest expenses. Rating BBB- – the lowest investment grade.
- −4Customer concentration and consolidationMorningstar cut fair value from 43 to €38 (May 2026), citing concentrated tenants and the bargaining power of mobile operators: a consolidation of SFR in France could force about 480 SFR leases into renegotiation, as with the MasOrange merger in Spain, and the Inwit case in Italy shows that operators can squeeze the tower companies.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Contract renewalsThe framework agreement with Vodafone Spain has been renewed for 10 years with about 2,000 existing leases unchanged, the Sunrise agreement in Switzerland has been expanded by 300 new sites, and the alliance with Telefónica on battery backup has been expanded to 3,800 sites (H1 2026).
- +1FCF turnaroundFCF rose to €301m in H1 2026 from €19m a year earlier, RLFCF per share rose 18.1%, and the EBITDAaL margin reached 61.8%; FCF (before leases) has swung from −€739m in 2022 to +€807m TTM as capex has fallen.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Cellnex is managed on RLFCF (recurring FCF after interest and leases, before expansion capex): guidance EUR 1.90–2.00bn for 2026, i.e. about 8x market value. The full FCF after all capex is far lower: the company's guidance is EUR 600–700m for 2026, and stockanalysis shows EUR 807m TTM before leases and only EUR 181m after leases (EUR 625m) – the full FCF is used in the valuation. Net debt EUR 20.3bn including lease liabilities (stockanalysis). P/E cannot be used (loss); EPS forecasts are adjusted. Price targets (average EUR 35.11) are partly outdated after the fall to EUR 23.35; only Goldman (EUR 26) and UBS (EUR 29.50) updated in September. The reason for the price fall in September (about −10%) is not documented beyond Goldman's downgrade. The CNMC's review of the TDT market (broadcast) and insider trading have not been investigated. Industry: no telecom category exists; towers are placed under 'Software, cloud & internet' like the other telecom shares (Orange, Deutsche Telekom, Telenor).
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