Rankings Pharma & medtech Cereno Scientific
Cereno Scientific
26
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Liquidity and funding−9
- Quality of growth−8
Strengths
- Insider buying+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 2.65 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 854m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 96.0 / 175.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +8%
Bull case
A large PAH partner (the sector paid USD 11.5bn for Acceleron/sotatercept) licenses CS1 with an upfront that removes the funding need, or the 2028 phase 2b data is clearly positive. The value could then reach SEK 3–5bn = about SEK 10–15 per share (2.5–4x), in line with Stifel's SEK 20 target in the best case.
Bear case
No partner before 2027: new share issues at a low price to fund phase 2b (several hundred million SEK) while handling the 175m convertible. At a price of SEK 2 and 50% dilution the share halves again; a negative phase 2b in 2028 could send it towards SEK 0.5.
Catalysts
- 2026-09-25 (happened)Positive topline results from CS014 phase 1 PK bridging; IND application (PH-ILD) planned after datagradual mfn.se
- H2 2026First patient randomised in phase 2b EPIMODE (CS1, PAH) and more centres openedgradual inderes.fi
- 4 Nov 2026Q3 report: cash, burn and any financing plangradual inderes.fi
- 30 Nov 2027Maturity of the SEK 175m convertible (conversion at SEK 10 or repayment)binary news.cision.com
- Q4 2028Topline from phase 2b EPIMODE with CS1 in PAHbinary inderes.fi
Risk of going to zeromedium – large debt (175m) vs small cash and an expensive phase 2b study, but the company has shown an ability to raise capital, and the market cap of SEK 1.4bn makes share issues possible.
Next financingCash SEK 39m (30/6) + about 57m net from the share issue at SEK 5.10 (30/6) = about 96m pro forma, but trade payables were 69m. Real cash burn in H1 about SEK 95m (cash −36m and payables +59m), and phase 2b is accelerating. The loan facility is blocked, and warrants and the convertible are out of the money. A new share issue or partner deal is expected around the turn of 2026/27 at the latest (management lock-up expires 31/12/2026), and the 175m convertible must be dealt with before 30/11/2027.
Warrants & convertiblesConvertible SEK 175m (Fenja) at a fixed SEK 10, maturity 30/11/2027, max 5m shares/quarter. 9.59m warrants at SEK 12 (to 30/11/2030). 10m warrants series 2025/26:1 at SEK 10. All far out of the money at SEK 4.02. Full conversion + exercise = about 37m new shares (about 11%).
Insiders, last 12 monthsManagement and the chair bought shares for over SEK 1.5m (announced 8/7/2026, after the issue at SEK 5.10). Lock-up for management and the board until 31/12/2026. No insider sales found.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Insiders about 7.2%, institutions about 17.9% (stockanalysis); Fenja Capital is a lender and potential owner via the convertible.
Circio check(1) No: a market value of DKK 854m is not small. (2) Partly: PAH is a hot area after sotatercept, but HDAC/valproate is not a hyped theme. (3) Yes, but far off: phase 2b data only in Q4 2028; the CS014 data is already out. (4) No: no large partner. (5) No: runway about 6 months, a convertible matures in 2027. (6) Partly: −54% in a year, but still above the 2022 low (SEK 2.25).
Why this asymmetryMarket cap already prices in some success, while the funding gap and the convertible make dilution almost certain before the first efficacy data in 2028. The upside requires a large partner deal; without it, risk/reward is poor.
How the score is built
From 100 to 26, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 19 Oct 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 3.46 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 20.75 SEK
- Upside to median
- +500.4%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 20.00 – 21.50 SEK
- 52-week change
- −57%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss SEK 81m (TTM June 2026) vs 15m in 2021 – the loss has grown fivefold without a product closer to market than phase 2b.
- −8Quality of growthCS1 (an HDAC inhibitor based on valproic acid) has only safety data from phase 2a and uncontrolled data from an expanded access programme; the controlled phase 2b EPIMODE (126 patients, 68 centres) has opened only one centre, and topline is expected in Q4 2028.
- −5MoatThe lead candidate is a reformulation of an old generic drug; protection rests on formulation and dosing patents, while the PAH market is dominated by large players (e.g. Merck's sotatercept).
- −4Capital allocationDevelopment costs are capitalised (about SEK 400m of SEK 460m in assets), so equity of SEK 198m is almost entirely capitalised R&D; funding repeatedly comes via Fenja loans, convertibles and warrants.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−16 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyMarket cap of SEK 1.36bn and EV of 1.49bn; P/B 6.8 vs 1.5–8.2 in 2021–2025, and P/B is measured on equity that is almost only capitalised development.
- −8PeersEV of about SEK 1.5bn for a phase 2b programme that has just started and is not funded to the end; Nordic biotech peers in early phase 2 typically trade at SEK 0.2–0.8bn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−27 of −35
- −9Liquidity and fundingCash SEK 39m before the share issue vs trade payables of SEK 69m (current ratio 0.51); the SEK 60m directed issue at SEK 5.10 in June covers only a few months of a global phase 2b.
- −8Debt and structureThe SEK 175m convertible to Fenja with a fixed conversion price of SEK 10 matures on 30/11/2027; the price is 4.19, so in practice it must be repaid or restructured. The SEK 175m loan facility can only be drawn once the convertibles are converted and sold – i.e. blocked at the current price.
- −5DilutionShare count +8% in a year and +70% (2023) / +32% (2024) earlier; the 'runway to Q4 2027' assumed SEK 665m incl. warrants at SEK 10–12, which are far out of the money – a new share issue is likely.
- −3ExecutionThe first controlled efficacy data (EPIMODE) only in Q4 2028 and dependent on recruitment in 12 countries; a long period of funding needs before the next big value driver.
- −2
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Insider buyingManagement and the chair bought shares for over SEK 1.5m in July 2026, and the entire management and board have a lock-up until 31/12/2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Clinical biotech without revenue; the balance sheet is dominated by capitalised development (about SEK 400m); SEK 175m convertible (Fenja) at SEK 10 matures 30/11/2027; price SEK 4.02 = DKK 2.65 is just below the DKK 3 limit; no stockanalysis forecast (Stifel covers with buy/SEK 20); largest owners not examined
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