Rankings Construction & materials ADLER Group

ADLER Group

Construction & materials · GermanyRank 799 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4Penny

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Leverage and maturity wall−15
Price vs value−14
Margin−12

Strengths

Stable rental income and debt reduction+2

Speculative profile

A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.

All penny stocks

Asymmetry (1–10): 1
Price: 0.73 DKK
Market value: DKK 111m
Cash runway: 36 months
Cash / debt: 155.0 / 3,450.0m EUR
Dilution, 12 months: +0%

Bull case

Berlin housing prices rise 20–30%, and interest rates fall, so the portfolio (EUR 3.5bn) rises to 4.2–4.5bn. Even then the debt (about 3.45bn) and the perpetual bonds (about 2.3bn) must be covered first; only if the perpetuals can be redeemed at a low price or need not be paid in full is there value for the shares. A 3–10x from EUR 15m market cap is mathematically easy, but requires an unlikely outcome.

Bear case

Property values are standing still, and interest expenses continue to eat equity; the 2028–2030 maturity wall requires a third restructuring where debt is converted to shares and the old shares are effectively wiped out (−95–100%).

Catalysts

26 Nov 2026Q3 2026 results: portfolio valuation, LTV and progress in salesgradual stockanalysis.com
2026–2027 (ongoing)Further sales of projects and properties to repay 1L New Money debt (EUR 201m so far in 2026)gradual webdisclosure.com
Dec 2028First large bond maturity (after the extensions to Dec 2028, Dec 2029 and Jan 2030)binary bondguide.de

Risk of going to zerohigh – LTV 79%, about EUR 2.3bn of subordinated capital ahead of the shares, loss of EUR 160m per half-year and a history of two restructurings in two years.

Next financingCash of EUR 155m at 30/6-2026; operating cash flow approx. −EUR 52m TTM (approx. 13m per quarter) gives approx. 36 months of runway, and property sales (201m in 2026) are used to reduce the 1L debt. No capital-market debt maturities before the end of 2028, but then practically all the debt falls due (Dec. 2028, Dec. 2029, Jan. 2030). With an LTV of 79% and perpetuals of 2.3bn ahead of shareholders, a third restructuring with a debt conversion in which the old shares are wiped out is a realistic scenario. Already today shareholders hold only 25% of the votes.

Warrants & convertiblesNo new shares in the last 12 months, but c. EUR 2.3bn of subordinated perpetual bonds (from 2024) rank ahead of the shares, and the holders of the Investor Notes have 75% of the votes. In a new restructuring, debt/perpetuals could be converted to shares.

Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider trades found in the sources read.

Largest ownersNot verified. Free float c. 79m shares (52%) and institutions c. 31% according to stockanalysis. The holders of the Investor Notes (the bondholders from the 2024 recapitalisation) hold 75% of the votes without owning ordinary shares.

Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 15m. (2) Hot theme: no – German housing is unpopular. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – sale and Q3, but none that change the capital structure. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding 2+ years: partial – no maturities before Dec. 2028, but that does not solve the leverage. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −52% in a year and −99% since 2021.

Why this asymmetryThe shares sit behind about EUR 3.45bn in debt and about EUR 2.3bn in perpetual bonds in a company with a 3.5bn lease portfolio and continued losses; bondholders control 75% of the votes. A very small market value gives lottery upside, but the probability that value reaches shareholders is very low, and liquidity is extremely low (about DKK 50,000 a day).

How the score is built

From 100 to 26, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

26Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 0.10 EUR
Median analyst target: –
Upside to median: –
Analysts: none
Target range: –
52-week change: −48%
P/E (trailing): 0.1
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30

Margin
Net result −EUR 160m in H1 2026 (−381m a year earlier) vs net rental income of only EUR 63m; interest expenses far exceed rental income. The operating margin has been negative every year 2021–2026 (−51% in 2025), and operating cash flow is negative (−52m TTM).
bondguide.de
−12
Quality of growth
The portfolio has been sold down from approx. 70,000 to 17,465 apartments to pay debt; net rental income fell from 68 to 63m EUR in H1, and 2026 guidance is only 124–129m EUR. TTM revenue growth (+44%) stems from project sales (Consus), not operations.
webdisclosure.com
−5
Moat
Berlin housing with 0.9% vacancy and 3% rent growth are solid assets, but rents are tightly regulated (Mietpreisbremse), and the company has no pricing advantage – the value follows the property market and interest rates.
webdisclosure.com
−2
Capital allocation
Massive value destruction: the share price has fallen from EUR 10.90 (2021) to 0.10, the market cap from EUR 1.1bn to approx. EUR 15m, shareholders were diluted approx. 22.5% in the 2023 restructuring, and portfolios have been sold below book value to pay debt.
stockanalysis.com
−6

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−14 of −35

Price vs value
P/B 0.02 is meaningless: LTV is 79.2% (debt approx. EUR 3.4–3.5bn vs a rental portfolio of 3.5bn), and approx. EUR 2.3bn of subordinated perpetual bonds rank ahead of the ordinary shares. EV/Sales 6.7 and no positive earnings. The stock is a very far out-of-the-money option on rising property values.
webdisclosure.com
−14

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−31 of −35

Leverage and maturity wall
LTV 79.2% at June 2026 (up slightly) and negative operating cash flow. 97% of the debt matures in 2028 or later - i.e. a combined maturity wall in December 2028, December 2029 and January 2030, which can hardly be refinanced without new sales or a third restructuring.
bondguide.de
−15
Shareholders are subordinated and without control
The 2024 recapitalisation converted about EUR 2.3bn into perpetual subordinated bonds and gave the bondholders 75% of the votes via new securities. The ordinary shares have only 25% of the votes and are last in the queue.
adler-group.com
−10
Governance and accounting trust
Viceroy Research made serious allegations in October 2021, and KPMG could not issue an audit opinion on the 2021 accounts. Confidence in valuations and management has not been restored.
en.wikipedia.org
−6

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15

Stable rental income and debt reduction
Operational vacancy 0.9%, 3.0% like-for-like rent growth in Berlin, and EUR 201m from sales has been used to repay expensive 1L New Money debt in 2026.
webdisclosure.com
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). German residential company (Luxembourg holding), now almost only Berlin (17,465 apartments), after two restructurings (2023 and 2024). Market cap calculated myself: 151.6m shares × EUR 0.098 = about EUR 14.9m (about DKK 111m; Nordnet shows 116). In the 2024 recapitalisation, about EUR 2.3bn of bonds were converted into subordinated perpetual bonds (IFRS equity), and the holders of 'Investor Notes' received new voting securities with 75% of the votes; ordinary shares have 25% of the votes and 100% of the dividend rights. Stockanalysis' earnings figures (positive TTM net income) are distorted by minorities/discontinued operations – the company's own H1 2026 figure (−EUR 160m) is used. EPRA NTA per share and the coupon on the perpetual bonds have not been found. Largest owners not verified. No analyst coverage (the forecast page does not exist). Industry: real estate is not on the list; closest chosen (Construction & materials, as for Cibus Real Estate).