Rankings Tech hardware & optics Cisco
Cisco
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Quality of growth−4
- Capital allocation−3
Strengths
- Order book+2
- Beat and raised guidance+2
- Dividend history+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 101.61 USD
- Median analyst target
- 135.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +32.9%
- Analysts
- 29
- Target range
- 110.00 – 170.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +39%
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.5
- Forward P/E
- 19.8
- PEG
- 1.96
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30
- −4Quality of growthRevenue has only grown from $51.6bn (FY22) to $63.3bn (FY26), about 5% a year including the Splunk acquisition; operating margin is 25.4% vs 27.2–27.4% in FY22–FY23. The new growth comes from AI hardware for hyperscalers, which pulls gross margin down (66.3% in Q4, −2.1 points year over year).
- −3Capital allocationThe Splunk acquisition turned a net cash position of $16.9bn (FY23) into net debt of $15.3bn, and ROIC has fallen from 38-44% to 20%. Buybacks ($8.0bn) and dividends ($6.6bn) exceeded FCF of $12.8bn in FY26, and stock-based compensation of $3.8bn (30% of FCF) means the buyback does little more than hold the share count steady (-0.3%).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−15 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 21.4 vs 12.9-17.4 in FY22-FY25, EV/EBITDA 23.5 vs 11.2-18.6, P/S 6.7 vs 3.6-4.8 and P/FCF 33 vs 11-20. Cisco trades like a growth stock, but analysts expect only about 10% annual revenue growth and 12% EPS growth over three years.
- −3FCF yieldFCF yield 3.0% vs 4.9-9.0% in FY22-FY25; FCF fell 4% in FY26 despite 12% higher revenue.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−6 of −35
- −2Margin pressure from memory and mixGross margin fell 2.1 points year over year to 66.3% due to more hardware and higher memory prices, and Q1 FY27 is guided to only 65-66%; the stock fell about 4.6% after the report.
- −3Customer concentration and competition in AIAI growth is built on orders from a few hyperscalers ($9.3bn in FY26, $4bn in Q4 alone), where Cisco competes with Arista and Nvidia's Spectrum-X; 40% of AI orders are optics, a market with lower margins and many suppliers.
- −1Analyst confidenceBernstein has 'Hold' and a price target of $110 (7 Oct 2026), and Piper Sandler cut its price target from $132 to $125 (22 Sep 2026).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Order bookProduct orders rose 35% and network orders 40% in Q4 FY26, the eighth quarter in a row with double-digit order growth; orders from enterprises +21% and from the public sector +30%.
- +2Beat and raised guidanceQ4 revenue of $17.3bn (+18%) and EPS of $1.22 (+23%) were above the top of guidance; FY27 is guided to $72.2-73.4bn (+15%) and EPS of $5.05-5.11, with AI revenue of about $7.5bn vs about $4bn.
- +1Dividend history14 consecutive years of dividend increases; the dividend alone ($6.6bn) equals 52% of FCF.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q1 FY27 is reported on 11 Nov 2026 and is not included. Multiples and ROIC before FY24 are without Splunk (bought for about $28bn in March 2024) and only partly comparable. Insider trading, credit rating and segment revenue for Collaboration/Observability have not been investigated; the score is an upper bound on those points. The industry 'Tech hardware & optics' was chosen; network equipment has no category of its own. 13F purchases give no points.
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