Rankings Pharma & medtech Cingulate
Cingulate
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−14
- Quality of growth−6
- CRL and production−6
Strengths
- Insider buying+2
- Clinical and commercial preparation+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 5.03 USD
- Median analyst target
- 20.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +297.6%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 8.00 – 44.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +33%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−30 of −30
- −14MarginNo revenue. TTM net loss USD 28.8m; H1 2026 net loss 15.2m (8.8), because selling and administrative expenses rose 182% to 9.7m due to build-up of the sales organisation ahead of an approval that did not come.
- −6Quality of growthAll the value depends on one product, CTx-1301 (dexmethylphenidate in a three-part tablet), which is a new formulation of an old, generic ADHD drug. CTx-1302 awaits capital, and CTx-2103 (anxiety) is at the formulation stage.
- −5MoatThe ADHD market is full of cheap generics (dexmethylphenidate ER, lisdexamfetamine) and branded drugs such as Azstarys, Jornay PM and Qelbree. Insurers typically restrict expensive new formulations of generic substances. A new patent (US 12,653,791, until December 2042) protects the formulation, but not the substance itself.
- −5Capital allocationThe price has fallen from USD 662 (adjusted for reverse splits, 2021) to 4.76. Financing has come via expensive instruments: the Lincoln Park equity line, an Avondale debt note with 9% interest and a monitoring fee paid in shares, and repeated ATM programs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV about USD 47m vs 6-31m at year-ends 2021-2025, and P/B 2.8. Highest EV in the company's history, even though approval has been postponed.
- −2PeersAytu BioPharma, which sells several ADHD products (TTM revenue 57.6m), has an EV of only 14m (EV/Sales 0.25). The market thus gives low value to small ADHD companies facing generic competition; Cingulate costs more with no revenue.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−17 of −35
- −6CRL and productionFDA issued a CRL on 1/6-2026 requiring additional CMC information. The only contract manufacturer, Bend Bioscience (Gainesville), received a Form 483 with three observations at the February 2026 inspection, one of them specific to CTx-1301. FDA may re-inspect, and the timing of resubmission is unknown.
- −5Going concern and runway10-Q: 'substantial doubt' about the ability to continue. Cash of USD 28.4m lasts into mid-2027, but a launch requires far more capital, and the Avondale promissory note (6.57m originally, 9% interest, maturing May 2027) is repaid with up to USD 660,000 per month.
- −5Dilution, ATM and equity lineThe share count has doubled from 7.25m (end-2025) to 14.54m (+168% over a year) via private placement (12m at USD 5.14), ATM (AGP, 100m framework), Lincoln Park (25m framework) and shares to Avondale. 2.6m warrants, of which 1.87m at USD 5.04.
- −1Short interest1.17m shares sold short = 8.2% of free float and 9.2 days to cover due to low turnover (approx. 91,000 shares a day).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Insider buyingIn the private placement in February 2026, CEO Shane Schaffer, CFO Jennifer Callahan, CMO Matthew Brams, director Peter Werth and the CEO's father bought shares and warrants for a total of USD 470,000 at USD 5.14, close to the day's price.
- +1Clinical and commercial preparationThe CRL raised no objections to efficacy or safety. Distribution agreement with Prasco (July 2026), commercial partner Indegene and IQVIA for the sales force are in place.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price USD 4.76 (2/10-2026); above DKK 3 is fine according to the brief. 14.54m shares (August 2026) give a market cap of about USD 69m (about DKK 456m), in line with Nordnet's DKK 461m. The share count keeps rising via ATM and the Lincoln Park agreement (13.89m at 30/6, 7.25m at end of 2025), so the real figure may be higher. Going concern warning in the 10-Q despite cash of 28.4m at 30/6 (management: lasts into mid-2027). The FDA rejected the NDA for CTx-1301 with a Complete Response Letter on 1/6-2026 (CMC/manufacturing only, not efficacy or safety); the timing of resubmission is not stated ('as promptly as practicable'). ATM program of 100m (AGP, March 2026) and equity line of 25m (Lincoln Park). Analyst price targets (avg. USD 21.20, +345%) are, in our judgment, too optimistic/outdated after the CRL and the dilution. Pre-revenue: TTM revenue 0.
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