Rankings Commodities & uranium Emerita Resources
Emerita Resources
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Funding and debt−7
- Management and governance−6
Strengths
- Lender as validation+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.65 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 489m
- Cash runway
- 4 months
- Cash / debt
- 9.1 / 9.0m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +10%
Bull case
The PFS shows robust economics (e.g. NPV of several hundred m USD at high gold and silver prices), the Nebari tranche is opened, and/or TSJA rules in Emerita's favour in the Aznalcóllar case. With an EV of approx. 105m C$, that could send the price towards the 2025 level of 1.0–1.6 C$ (3–4x).
Bear case
The PFS disappoints or is delayed again, cash runs out around year-end, and the company must raise 15–25m C$ at 0.15–0.30 C$ (+20–50% shares) or take expensive debt. With board unrest and the Nebari loan ahead of shareholders, the share price could halve again.
Catalysts
- Q4 2026Publication of the PFS for Iberian Belt West (NPV, IRR, capex) - 'in the coming weeks' after extended reviewbinary stocktitan.net
- 18 Dec 2026Annual accounts for financial year 2026 (estimated date) – cash and financinggradual stockanalysis.com
- Not set (after Sep. 2026)TSJA's ruling in the administrative case on the Aznalcóllar tender; the suspension was lifted in September 2026binary investingnews.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – a real indicated resource in Spain and a lender behind it, but approx. 4 months of cash, growing debt and board unrest.
Next financingCash of C$9.1m at 30/6-2026 vs approx. C$6.3m in quarterly spending (operations + capex) gives approx. 4 months of runway, i.e. the cash is almost empty by year-end without new capital. The Nebari tranche of USD 35m is a standby loan for the project and must be expected to require a positive PFS and permits. Most likely: share issue or more Nebari debt shortly after the PFS in Q4 2026.
Warrants & convertiblesNot quantified (Q3 MD&A could not be read). The Nebari loan (c. C$9.0m outstanding) may carry attached warrants; terms not examined. A large option programme is likely (share-based compensation c. C$5.7m TTM).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked on SEDI). Insiders own c. 10.5% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Insiders c. 10.5%, institutions c. 5.1% (stockanalysis); PM Super Fund is an activist shareholder (stake not found).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 489m. (2) Hot theme: partial – copper, silver and gold are strong, zinc less so. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – PFS and Aznalcóllar ruling. (4) Major partner: no – only the lender Nebari; Denarius' bid was withdrawn. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 4 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −78% in a year and the lowest P/B ever.
Why this asymmetryCheap against the resource and its own history with two binary catalysts (PFS and Aznalcóllar) within a few months. But cash is almost empty, the PFS has been delayed several times, and the board is under pressure, so a dilutive issue close to the bottom is the most likely next step.
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.22 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −85%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−21 of −30
- −12MarginNo revenue; operating result −C$12.5m and net result −C$14.1m TTM (counted only here). The quarterly loss has grown from c. −C$1m in 2024 to −C$4.2m in the 3rd quarter (June) 2026.
- −5Resource and studiesNI 43-101 resource of 18.96 Mt indicated at 8.44% ZnEq and 6.80 Mt inferred at 8.72% ZnEq (La Romanera, La Infanta, El Cura) – a real but mid-sized polymetallic resource. There is not yet any published economic study (PFS) with NPV/IRR.
- −4Capital allocationShare-based pay of about C$5.7m over the past four quarters – almost half of the operating loss – while the company runs lawsuits (Aznalcóllar, Falcon) in parallel with developing the main project.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Valuation vs history and resourceP/B 1.63 vs 3.9–10.3 in 2021–25 – the lowest in the company's history – and EV approx. CAD 105m for just under 19 Mt indicated resource with approx. 783,000 oz gold. Cheap on paper, but without a PFS the price cannot be measured against a project value.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−27 of −35
- −6Management and governanceA 'withhold' revolt from PM Super Fund led three board members (Bento, Stretch, Patterson) to receive more against than for votes at the general meeting on 25/8-2026, so they had to offer to step down. Before that, Denarius withdrew its unsolicited takeover offer on 8/5-2026.
- −5Repeated PFS delaysThe PFS was promised by the end of Q2 2026, was pushed to Q3 and is now (30/9-2026) in 'extended review' under a new technical committee – release 'in the coming weeks'. An extended quality check right before publication is a warning sign that the figures may disappoint.
- −7Funding and debtCash of C$9.1m at 30/6-2026 vs spending (operations + capex) of approx. C$6.3m per quarter – only approx. 4 months of runway – and loan debt of C$9.0m to Nebari that grows every quarter. New equity almost certainly has to be raised or more expensive debt drawn in Q4 2026.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen 10.4% over a year and 6–136% a year since 2021. The latest big issue (C$26.2m in the quarter to Sep. 2025) took place while the price was around C$1–1.6; a new issue at about C$0.35 requires three to four times as many shares per dollar.
- −3Permits in AndalusiaThe environmental permit (AAU) and the mining licence for Iberian Belt West are still pending; the public consultation was not due to begin until Q1 2026, so production start is several years away.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Lender as validationNebari Natural Resources Credit Fund has expanded the loan facility with a fourth tranche of USD 35m as a standby loan for Iberian Belt West – an external credit assessment of the project.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Polymetallic developer (zinc/lead/copper/silver/gold) in the Iberian Pyrite Belt, Spain, with no revenue. Fiscal year Oct.–Sep.; latest figures as of 30/6-2026 (stockanalysis), and the Q3 MD&A could not be read (PDF). The PFS for Iberian Belt West has not been published, so NPV/IRR/capex are unknown. Terms of the Nebari loan (interest, maturity, warrants) and how much of the 35m USD standby tranche can actually be drawn have not been examined. Market cap calculated as 296.6m shares × 0.355 C$ = approx. 105m C$ (approx. 489m DKK, above Nordnet's 454m). Warrants/options, largest shareholders and insider trades have not been compiled systematically. The Aznalcóllar case is treated as an option with no value in the score.
Also in Commodities & uranium
The highest scores in the same industry.
