Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Constellation Brands
Constellation Brands
61
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Quality of growth−5
- Customer base and demand−5
- Capital allocation−3
Strengths
- Buybacks+2
- Pricing power and brands+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 61, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 140.67 USD
- Median analyst target
- 150.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +6.6%
- Analysts
- 24
- Target range
- 99.00 – 209.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +7%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.6
- Forward P/E
- 11.8
- PEG
- 5.41
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −5Quality of growthConsumer beer volume is falling: depletions -0.6% in Q2 FY27 (Modelo Especial about -2%, Corona Extra about -5%), and guidance for beer revenue is -1% to +1%. Adjusted EPS is guided to USD 11.20-11.90 vs 11.82 in FY26 and about 13.8 in FY25 - smaller, not stronger.
- −2MarginThe beer segment's operating margin fell from 40.6% to 39.0% in Q2, and FY27 guidance is 37-38%, because higher marketing and SG&A eat the better gross margin.
- −3Capital allocationHistory of large bad investments: write-downs and losses of 3.3bn USD in FY25 (wine and Canopy Growth) after losses on Canopy of over 2.5bn in FY22-FY23; and continued write-downs in FY27 (Nelson's Green Brier 49.8m, New Zealand wine 18.3m).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−3 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 10.9 and EV/EBITDA 9.5 are the lowest in 5 years (12.4-20.1 and 11.1-16.0 in FY22-FY26), but earnings are falling, so part of the discount is deserved.
- −1PeersForward P/E 10.9 and EV/EBITDA 9.5 vs Molson Coors' 8.5 and 5.8: a premium to the closest US beer peer despite falling volumes.
- −1Debt-adjusted priceNet debt of USD 10.2bn equals 46% of market cap; EV/FCF is 17.6 vs P/FCF 12.1, so the stock is less cheap measured on total capital.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−13 of −35
- −5Customer base and demandAbout half of beer sales go to Latin American consumers, who according to management are buying less due to immigration policy and inflation; Q2 depletions were below the expectation of flat to slightly positive development.
- −2Inventory build-up at distributorsShipments rose 5.5% vs depletions -0.6% in Q2, because distributors rebuilt days of inventory; the company expects shipments and depletions to move together for the full year, so the second half gets less tailwind.
- −3Tariffs and trade policyAlmost all beer is brewed in Mexico and imported to the US; aluminium tariffs (Section 232) hit the margin in 2025, and although lower tariffs gave a USD 24.1m tailwind in Q2, the entire beer business is exposed to US trade policy towards Mexico.
- −2DebtNet debt/EBITDA 3.0, current ratio 1.0 and Altman Z-score 2.92; debt has only been reduced from USD 11.2bn to 10.3bn since February.
- −1Wine and spiritsThe remaining wine and spirits business (USD 716m TTM) causes recurring write-downs and is expected to ship less in the second half; the operating margin is only 3.8%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2BuybacksBuybacks of 784m + dividends of 708m = USD 1.49bn over the last 12 months vs FCF of 1.84bn; the share count has fallen 3.3% in a year.
- +2Pricing power and brandsGross margin in beer rose from 52.9% to 54.1% in Q2; Pacifico (+19%) and Victoria (+15%) are growing, and group gross margin is 52.8% vs 50.4% in FY24.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year ends end of February; Q2 FY2027 (to 31 Aug 2026) was reported on 6 Oct 2026. The beer segment is about 92% of revenue, and reported FY2026 revenue is depressed by the wine divestiture (June 2025), so year-on-year revenue growth is not comparable. The Latino customer share (about half of beer sales) and the immigration effect come from management statements in 2025. The USMCA review and other tariffs on Mexican production have not been examined in detail. Insider trading has not been examined. 13F purchases earn no points.
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