Rankings Utilities & power Constellation Energy
Constellation Energy
74
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−12
- ROIC−3
- Capital allocation−3
Strengths
- Long contracts and broad base+2
- Guidance raised+1
- Insider buying+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 74, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 257.25 USD
- Median analyst target
- 345.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +34.1%
- Analysts
- 25
- Target range
- 238.00 – 399.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −32%
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.9
- Forward P/E
- 20.8
- PEG
- 1.20
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−8 of −30
- −3ROICROIC is 7.4% vs a WACC of 8.65%, and ROCE is 5.5% TTM (9.3% in 2024, 6.1% in 2025). After Calpine the group does not earn its cost of capital.
- −3Capital allocationCalpine was bought for about $21.8bn: 50m new shares, about $4.5bn in cash and assumed debt. The share count has risen 6.85% in a year, and the group goes from pure nuclear to also being a large gas and retail player. At the same time $1.97bn of shares were bought back TTM.
- −2Quality of earningsGAAP EPS was $1.42 in Q2 ($2.67 a year earlier) vs adjusted operating earnings of $2.55 per share. The gap comes from mark-to-market adjustments, integration costs ($84m after tax in Q2) and other adjustments. EPS swings from $11.89 (2024) to $7.40 (2025).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−12 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 21.0 (21.7 on the midpoint of 2026 guidance of $11.50–12.50); trailing P/E 25.2 vs 18.7–47.6 in 2023–25; EV/EBITDA 14.6 vs 10.6–11.2 in 2022–24 (20.6 in 2025). Vistra trades at a forward P/E of 13.4 and EV/EBITDA of 10.0. The premium for contracted nuclear is large, while leverage and the gas share are now higher.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−14 of −35
- −3DebtDebt/EBITDA has risen from 1.25 (2024) and 1.64 (2025) to 3.04; net debt is $24.0bn, interest cover 6.0x and quick ratio 0.47.
- −3Cash flow and payoutsNet borrowing was $3.9bn TTM, alongside buybacks of $1.97bn, dividends of $0.55bn and capex of $3.9bn. Stockanalysis' FCF ($0.3bn) is distorted by the accounting for sold receivables, but payouts are effectively partly debt-funded. (The old list called FCF 'negative in 2023–24' without this caveat.)
- −3Execution (Crane)The restart of Crane (about 830 MW, a 20-year deal with Microsoft) is now targeted for the end of 2027, and the NRC operating licence is expected in May 2027. FERC has approved the transfer of capacity rights, but full capacity requires transmission upgrades, and in the spring management would not confirm the 2027 target.
- −3Regulation (PJM)Several potential data-centre customers have paused negotiations until PJM's rules for colocation and the backstop auction are settled, and 5 GW of projects in the PJM queue are waiting. PJM capacity revenue is politically exposed.
- −1Insider tradingOfficer Andrew Novotny filed a sale of 19,825 shares ($5.4m) on Form 144 on 21/8. (The old list said about $8m in September.) Management's transfers on 9/2 (about $51m at the same price) look like tax withholding on vesting and are not counted.
- −1Customer concentrationA growing share of contracted nuclear is tied up in a few long hyperscaler deals (Microsoft at Crane, CyrusOne 2×380 MW in Texas). The share of earnings is not disclosed.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +1Guidance raised2026 guidance for adjusted operating earnings was raised in August to $11.50–12.50 per share on the contribution from Calpine, higher PJM capacity revenue and new deals. The first 2026 guidance was below consensus, though.
- +2Long contracts and broad base920 MW of new long-term nuclear deals in Q2 (including 176 MW with Walmart), the largest competitive retail business in the US after Calpine and a 93% capacity factor give visibility.
- +1Insider buyingDirector Roger W. Crandall bought 1,500 shares for $0.42m at $278.62 on 11/8/2026, the only open-market purchase in 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Calpine ($21.8bn, closed 7/1/2026) has doubled leverage, and GAAP results are far below adjusted. The Crane restart targets the end of 2027, but the NRC operating licence is only expected in May 2027, and full capacity requires new transmission facilities. PJM's colocation rules are unresolved, and some data centre customers are waiting. Stockanalysis' FCF is distorted by the accounting for sold receivables, so cash flow is only partly captured.
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