Rankings Utilities & power Naturgy
Naturgy
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Future segment−4
- Quality of growth−3
- Multiples vs own history and peers−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Regulation (gas distribution)+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 29.28 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 31.55 EUR
- Upside to median
- +7.8%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 24.30 – 35.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +11%
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.9
- Forward P/E
- 13.6
- PEG
- 45.22
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30
- −4Future segmentA large part of the business is gas: gas distribution in Spain and Latin America, gas trading/LNG (Energy Management €6.9bn in revenue) and gas-fired power plants (thermal Spain €2.8bn). Revenue from Spanish gas distribution has fallen from €1.21bn (2021) to €0.97bn TTM, and CNMC removes the incentives for new gas build-out from October 2026.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has been flat at about €19.5bn since 2024; EBITDA rose 5% and net income 6% in H1 2026, and analysts expect only 0.7% annual revenue growth and −1% annual EPS development over the next three years.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 13.4 vs 12.9–14.8 in 2023–2025 (23.5 in 2021), EV/EBITDA 7.7 vs 7.6–8.3 in 2022–2025 and P/B 2.27 vs 1.93–3.10 – at the low end of its own history. However, more expensive than Enel (forward P/E 11.8) and Engie (11.2) despite weaker expected EPS growth.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−5 of −35
- −2Gas prices and energy tradingEnergy Management and thermal generation follow international gas prices (thermal Spain swung from €5.7bn in revenue in 2022 to €1.7bn in 2024), and management itself warns of a complex winter in Europe due to gas price developments.
- −2Latin AmericaDistribution in Argentina (gas and electricity, EUR 0.83bn in revenue TTM), Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Panama as well as thermal generation in Latin America; revenue from gas distribution in Brazil has halved from EUR 1.93bn (2022) to 0.98bn TTM.
- −1Shareholder structureGIP (BlackRock) sold its last 11.4% in March 2026 and CVC its entire 13.8% stake for €3.8bn; CriteriaCaixa (28.5%) and IFM (15.5%) still control, and an IFM sale could bring new supply pressure.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 guidance raised to EBITDA above €5.5bn (+4% vs original plan) and net result above €2.1bn (+10%); net debt fell to €11.7bn (2.2x EBITDA) in H1.
- +1Regulation (gas distribution)The CNMC has set the return on gas distribution for 2027–2032 at 6.87% vs 5.83% in the current period – 20 bp above the consultation draft; Naturgy is affected via the distributor Nedgia.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Stockanalysis' −4.6% change in share count was checked against the cash flow: the partial buyback offer in 2025 (€2.58bn) was partly offset by a sale of treasury shares of €1.39bn in H2 2025, intended to increase free float – hence no plus for buybacks. Stockanalysis shows free float of 28%, but the company states over 46% after GIP's and CVC's exit in 2026. Reported and ordinary earnings are not separated in the sources used; impairments are small (−€29m TTM). The forward P/E history is lifted by 2021 (23.5), so the comparison weights 2023–2025. Analysts' 3-year EPS estimate (−1% per year) pre-dates the guidance raise in July and may be outdated. Gas supply contracts (Algeria/Medgaz, LNG) and credit rating have not been investigated in depth.
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