Rankings Utilities & power Vistra
Vistra
75
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−7
- Power prices and demand (ERCOT)−5
- Debt−4
Strengths
- Insider buying+2
- Hedging and long contracts+2
- Validation+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 75, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 134.61 USD
- Median analyst target
- 201.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +49.3%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 106.00 – 306.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −29%
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.9
- Forward P/E
- 13.4
- PEG
- 0.36
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−9 of −30
- −3ROICROIC is 9.7% against a WACC of 9.7% (9.66%); ROCE has swung from 14.0% (2024) through 7.4% (2025) to 11.9% TTM. A capital-intensive business that only just earns its cost of capital.
- −2Quality of earningsGAAP earnings in Q2 were 305m $ against adjusted EBITDA of 1,767m $, dragged down by 488m $ in larger unrealised losses on derivatives. EPS swings from 7.00 $ (2024) to 2.18 $ (2025) and 5.87 $ TTM. Revenue has disappointed in four of the last five quarters by 10–27%.
- −2Quality of growthGrowth is primarily bought: Energy Harbor (2024), Lotus (2025) and now Cogentrix. Q2 revenue fell 5.5% to USD 4.02bn, and the EBITDA uplift came from higher realised prices via hedging, capacity payments and three months of Lotus.
- −2Capital allocationCommitment of up to $1.0bn to Helix Digital Infrastructure (with KKR, KIA and NVIDIA), a data-centre platform outside the core business, on top of Cogentrix ($2.3bn in cash, 5m shares and assumption of $1.5bn of debt).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own history and peersAfter the rise to $161, P/E is 18.4 on 2026 EPS ($8.78) and 15.5 on 2027 EPS, i.e. at the top of its own forward P/E of 6.9–18.4 in 2021–25. EV/EBITDA 11.2 versus 5.7–14.4 in 2023–25; P/B 18.1; EV/FCF 32.9; FCF yield 4.2%. Below Constellation (fwd P/E 24.1, EV/EBITDA 16.3), but above NRG (10.3) and Talen (12.7), and for a leveraged merchant generator in a weak Texas market.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−20 of −35
- −5Power prices and demand (ERCOT)The ERCOT power price has been around $30/MWh in 2026, and the 2027 forward curves are, according to the CFO, markedly lower than in October 2025. Management has lowered its expectation for annual ERCOT load growth from 5–6% to 4–6%, and 2027 EBITDA is guided towards the bottom of $7.4–7.8bn.
- −2Regulation (ERCOT and PJM)Texas has paused new data centres until the ERCOT queue of about 474 GW has been reviewed. In PJM the capacity price is capped at USD 325/MW-day through 2029/30 (without the cap, 2028/29 would have given USD 554.72), so the upside is politically limited. Uncertainty about the PJM rules was part of the explanation for the 6.35% share price fall on 8 Oct.
- −4DebtNet debt $20.1bn (net debt/EBITDA 3.0), interest cover 3.8x and current ratio 0.97. On top come $2.3bn in cash and $1.5bn of assumed debt in Cogentrix, and on 24/9 $1.5bn of subordinated notes were issued at 7.00–7.25% maturing in 2057.
- −3Moss Landing (operations and lawsuits)Fire broke out again on 18/9/2026 at the Moss Landing battery facility, which also burned in January 2025. Residents were told to stay indoors, and local politicians are critical. Vistra is liable under CERCLA for the clean-up, and residents' lawsuits are pending.
- −3Insider tradingThe selling continues: the CFO sold again for USD 3.3m on 7 Oct (at USD 165) and the retail chief for USD 3.6m on 6 Oct, after sales of USD 3.0m and USD 6.7m on 8 Sep. Four board members sold USD 7.7m in June, and the chief accounting officer and general counsel have also sold. In total about USD 27m sold in 2026 versus the CEO's purchase of USD 1.2m.
- −2MacroThe AI power theme has cooled and merchant producers have been de-rated as a group; the stock is still -22% over 52 weeks despite a rebound in October. Higher interest rates make debt more expensive, cf. the 7% coupon on the new loans.
- −1Customer concentration20-year agreements with Meta (2.6 GW) and Amazon/AWS (1.2 GW from Comanche Peak) tie a growing share of contracted earnings to two hyperscalers; the share is not disclosed.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+7 of +15
- +2Insider buyingCEO Jim Burke bought 8,665 shares for a total of $1.17m on the open market on 24/8 and 31/8 at about $135.
- +2Hedging and long contractsApprox. 100% of 2026 and 94% of 2027 production is hedged (72% of 2028); 20-year PPAs of 3.8 GW with Meta and Amazon provide visibility, and the Comanche Peak supply to Amazon starts in 2027.
- +2ValidationOn 5/10/2026 the DOE granted a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2bn for upgrades of 433 MW and 20-year life extensions at Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse and Perry (tied to the Meta agreement), with an option on Comanche Peak. Investment grade (BBB-) from S&P and Fitch since March 2026, but at the lowest rung.
- +1BuybacksBuybacks (USD 1.17bn) and dividends (USD 0.50bn) were below FCF (USD 2.26bn) TTM. The share count is about 30% lower since November 2021 and fell 0.8% in Q2, but is +0.45% over a year, and Cogentrix is issuing 5m new shares.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Re-scored 11 Oct 2026 at a price of 161.48 $ (+17% since 29 Sep, after a 20.5% run from 30 Sep and a 6.35% fall on 8 Oct). Price targets are now being lowered (BMO 231→210, Wells Fargo 238→212; median 211 $). The 4.2bn $ DOE loan is only a conditional commitment. Cogentrix has not closed (FERC-approved in August, closing expected late 2026), and the 2027 guidance may only be updated after closing. Q3 is due 6 Nov. GAAP earnings swing with unrealised hedging items. Moss Landing (fire on 18 Sep) and the rating have not been re-examined since 29 Sep.
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