Rankings Utilities & power Talen Energy
Talen Energy
76
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−7
- Debt and credit−7
- Margin−6
Strengths
- Estimates+2
- Buybacks+2
- Hedging and capacity revenue+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 76, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 332.99 USD
- Median analyst target
- 459.65 USD
- Upside to median
- +38.0%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 307.00 – 560.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −17%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 12.5
- PEG
- 0.31
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−10 of −30
- −6MarginGAAP loss of $185m TTM (net margin −5.0%, operating margin 4.1%) and ROIC 1.2% vs a WACC of 9.6%. The loss is mainly unrealised hedging losses (−$212m in Q2) and stock-based pay, but shows how much the result swings. The loss is counted here and not again under ROIC.
- −4Capital allocation and quality of growthGrowth is bought: Freedom and Guernsey (about $3.5bn, 2025) and Cornerstone (2.6 GW for $3.45bn, closed 15/6/2026), funded with $4bn of new bonds. Revenue rose 76% TTM and generation from 7.3 to 14.1 TWh in Q2, almost entirely from buying gas plants, while net debt rose from $2.4bn to 9.3bn since 2023.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 10.2 (adjusted EPS) vs 21.9–51.5 in 2023–25, and about 11x both EV/adjusted EBITDA and market value/adjusted FCF on 2026 guidance. Cheap on adjusted figures and below Vistra and Constellation, but expensive on GAAP figures (EV/EBITDA 41, P/B 9.0), and the post-bankruptcy history is only three years.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−20 of −35
- −7Debt and creditNet debt of $9.34bn equals about 4.4x the midpoint of 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA ($2.1bn), above its own target of under 3.5x. GAAP interest cover 0.3x, current ratio 0.78, and the new $4bn of unsecured bonds carry coupons of 6.125–6.375% (high yield).
- −3RemunerationStock-based pay was $526m in 2025 and $568m TTM, more than the entire TTM FCF of $444m. It is mainly performance awards ($70m in Q2 alone) and sits outside adjusted EBITDA.
- −3Regulation and market power (PJM)On 1/4/2026 PJM's market monitor asked FERC to reject the Cornerstone deal because of greater market concentration at PJM's fourth-largest generator. FERC approved and the deal closed in June, but the political pressure on PJM capacity prices (2028/29 cleared at the $325/MWd cap) and criticism of market power remain.
- −3Customer concentrationThe contracted data-centre story rests on one customer: Amazon's 1.92 GW PPA from the Susquehanna nuclear plant (about $18bn). The rest of the fleet sells into the PJM market.
- −3MacroThe AI power theme has cooled: the stock is −26% over 52 weeks and trades below its 200-day average ($353), beta 1.63. Only 30% of 2028 generation is hedged, so earnings after 2027 depend on power prices.
- −1Insider tradingOnly sales over the last 12 months: four board members sold about $4.7m in total in May–June 2026 (including Stephen Schaefer for $2.2m). No purchases.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +2Estimates2026 guidance raised in Q2 to adjusted EBITDA of $2,025–2,225m and adjusted FCF of $1,200–1,350m. Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 was $374m vs $90m a year earlier.
- +2BuybacksThe share count has fallen 7.1% in a year; about 15m shares have been bought back for $2.3bn since 2024, and $1.7bn remains through 2028. The $438m TTM buyback is just below the $444m FCF (no dividend).
- +2Hedging and capacity revenue85% of 2026 and 70% of 2027 generation is hedged, and over 10 GW cleared in PJM's 2028/29 capacity auction at $325/MWd. That gives earnings visibility for the next two to three years.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
GAAP loss (unrealised hedging losses and share-based compensation of $568m TTM); the low forward P/E rests on adjusted figures. Net debt has risen to $9.3bn after three gas plant acquisitions, above the company's own leverage target of below 3.5x. The credit rating has not been verified (Fitch's negative outlook from the last list could not be confirmed). Only three years of history since bankruptcy.
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