A2A

Utilities & power · ItalyRank 164 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.470+ zone

15070100

In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.

Biggest deductions

Quality of growth−5
ROIC and margin−3
Multiples vs own history and peers−3

Strengths

Diversified and regulated base+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

77Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 2.38 EUR
Median analyst target: 2.90 EUR
Upside to median: +21.6%
Analysts: 7
Target range: 2.60 – 3.14 EUR
52-week change: −6%
P/E (trailing): 10.9
Forward P/E: 11.5
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−8 of −30

Quality of growth
Net income fell from €864m (2024) to €750m (2025), and guidance for 2026 is €0.63–0.66bn adjusted; adjusted net income fell 11% and EBITDA 3% in H1, even though revenue rose 22%. Consensus expects EPS −6% in 2026 and +2% in 2027.
teleborsa.it
−5
ROIC and margin
ROIC 5.4% vs a WACC of 5.1% – only just above the cost of capital; ROE has fallen from 16.4% (2024) to 11.3% TTM, the operating margin is 7.6% and the FCF margin 2.8%.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35

Multiples vs own history and peers
Trailing P/E 10.3 vs. 7.8–10.4 in 2021–2025 (the top), forward P/E 10.8 vs. 9.3–14.3, EV/EBITDA 6.2 vs. 5.1–7.6 and P/B 1.09 vs. 0.87–1.22: mid-range of own history, but in line with Enel (forward P/E about 11.8) despite falling earnings.
stockanalysis.com
−3
FCF yield
EV/FCF 30.8 vs 13–28 in 2021–2025; FCF was €437m TTM (FCF yield 6.2%), but analysts expect negative FCF of −€303m in 2026 as investments run at €1.24bn a year.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−6 of −35

Hydropower concessions
A2A holds over 50% of the expired concessions and 2 GW of hydropower; concession fees have already risen and pulled EBITDA down in H1, and without a change in the law the concessions must be tendered by 2029 at the latest. The CEO warns that investments of over EUR 1bn otherwise cannot begin until 2031–2032.
teleborsa.it
−3
Debt and distributions
Net debt rose from 5.47 to €5.79bn in H1 (2.6x EBITDA; stockanalysis 2.8x), and the dividend (about €0.31bn, FCF payout 74%) has to be paid while FCF is expected to be negative in 2026; interest cover is 6.4x.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15

Diversified and regulated base
Earnings are spread across generation and trading, retail, regulated power grids, waste and district heating in Lombardy; 70% of investment goes to grids and renewables, and 2026 guidance (EBITDA €2.21–2.25bn) is confirmed.
teleborsa.it
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Adjusted vs reported: guidance and half-year figures are adjusted (adjusted net result €374m in H1), while stockanalysis' history is reported (€750m in 2025); the decline vs guidance may therefore be slightly exaggerated. Revenue swings with energy prices (€23bn in 2022, 12.9bn in 2024) and says little about growth. Cyclical set to false as for Enel: generation and trading are only part of earnings alongside grids, waste and district heating, but the merchant exposure is real. Price targets last updated 14 May (7 analysts) and are not a finding. The municipalities of Milan and Brescia are the controlling shareholders (free float 1.42 of 3.13bn shares); ownership share and shareholder agreement have not been checked, and no points are given for governance. If the government extends the hydropower concessions without tender, as the market is betting on, it is a possible positive catalyst, but it has not been decided. Credit rating has not been examined.