Rankings Software, cloud & internet Crunchfish
Crunchfish
46
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding−9
- Commercial execution−6
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.45 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 120m
- Cash runway
- 9 months
- Cash / debt
- 13.1 / 0.7m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +11%
Bull case
NPCI or the RBI chooses Crunchfish's patented offline technology for the digital rupee or UPI, or GCash/Mercury signs a licensing agreement. Even a few SEK m in licence income and a strategic investor could lift the value from about SEK 180m to 500-900m (3-5x); a national Indian agreement could give more.
Bear case
No deal before March 2027, and a new issue at DKK 1.0–1.5 with 30–50% dilution becomes necessary. India chooses its own solution, and the company is left with patents without customers. The share price could halve again.
Catalysts
- 12 Nov 2026Q3 report: cash, any strategic investor and status of NPCI, GCash and Mercurygradual stockanalysis.com
- Q3–Q4 2026 (no fixed date)Board decision on CBDC in the Caribbean (expected in Q3) and first commercial agreement with revenue, which the CEO expects 'this year'binary ph.investing.com
- Q4 2026–Q1 2027Financing needed: strategic investor or new issue, as cash lasts until about March 2027binary ph.investing.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – only about 8–9 months of cash, no revenue and dependence on regulatory decisions; the insiders have however secured funding so far
Next financingThe cash (SEK 13.1m at 30/6) lasts approx. 8–9 months at Q2's spending rate, i.e. until around March 2027. There is no secured financing. The company is seeking a strategic investor via Västra Hamnen; otherwise a new issue in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 is likely, presumably below the last issue price of DKK 3.00.
Warrants & convertiblesUp to 3.75m warrants issued via a separate subscription list 22–29 May 2026 (approx. 4.5% dilution); strike and expiry not confirmed. No convertible loans found.
Insiders, last 12 monthsThe chairman and CEO Joachim Samuelsson gave subscription commitments that covered the entire rights issue of about SEK 15m at DKK 3.00 in April 2026 (allocation and final allotment not confirmed). No sales found.
Largest ownersNot quantified. Insiders c. 15.4%, institutions c. 9.0% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 120m. (2) Hot theme: partial, central bank digital currencies and offline payments in India, but not a market theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, NPCI negotiations, GCash and CBDC decision in the Caribbean, but without fixed dates. (4) Major partner: partial, pilot projects with IDFC FIRST and Axis Bank, but no commercial license. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 8–9 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −51% in a year and −90% from 2021, below the last issue price.
Why this asymmetryA single national licence agreement in India or a payment platform could multiply a market cap of only about SEK 180m, and insiders have put in their own money at SEK 3.00. But the promises of a commercial breakthrough have been postponed for years, and the cash forces a new financing before March 2027, so the upside risks being diluted.
How the score is built
From 100 to 46, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.86 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −47%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 0.67m vs an operating loss of 19.8m and a net loss of 20.4m (TTM). Revenue was 0.07m in Q2 2026, and management calls the proof-of-concept income 'not a sustainable source of income'.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from SEK 6.2m in 2022 and 2.9m in 2024 to 0.7m in 2025. The company has shifted from gesture and AR technology to offline payments and after several years still has no licence income.
- −4MoatPatents on offline payments, including granted in India, strengthen the negotiating position, but the national payment players (NPCI, central banks) can choose their own solutions, and no one has yet paid for a commercial licence.
- −5Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 29m (2021) to 82.9m (about 3x) via repeated issues, including a unit issue of about SEK 57m and a rights issue of 15m in April 2026. The price has fallen from DKK 24 (2021) to about 2.2.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyP/B is 2.8 vs 1.4–13.8 in 2021–2025, i.e. at the low end of the history, but the history is from a time of higher expectations.
- −5Peers and absolute levelAn EV of about SEK 170m for 0.7m in revenue (EV/Sales over 200) and an FCF yield of −13% is pure option pricing on a coming licence agreement.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−21 of −35
- −9FundingCash was SEK 13.1m at 30/6, and operating spending was 4.6m in Q2, so the money lasts about 8-9 months (to around March 2027). The company has hired Västra Hamnen Corporate Finance to find a strategic investor, but progress is 'a bit slow'.
- −6Commercial executionCommercial agreements have been promised for several years (first deal with IDFC FIRST Bank in 2023), but there are still only pilot projects and technical trials (Axis Bank, GCash, Mercury). The CEO again says a deal with revenue 'this year' is reasonable, with no date.
- −4Regulatory dependenceThe breakthrough depends on decisions by authorities: NPCI/RBI in India, central banks in three countries for Mercury and a CBDC decision in the Caribbean. That gives binary outcomes and long decision times that the company does not control.
- −2Share price riskThe price has fallen 51% over a year and trades below the April 2026 issue price of DKK 3.00, so the new shareholders are sitting on a loss. Beta is 2.0.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+3 of +15
- +3Insider buyingThe rights issue of about 15 m SEK at 3.00 kr. in April 2026 was fully covered by subscription commitments from the chairman and CEO, i.e. purchases above the current share price.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis. Market cap does not match Nordnet: 82.9m shares (after the rights issue in April 2026) × SEK 2.195 = SEK 182m ≈ DKK 120m, vs Nordnet's DKK 108m (corresponding to c. 74.5m shares, probably an old share count). The price rose 24% on 1/10 (to SEK 2.295) without an announcement being found; possibly in connection with the Sibos final on 30/9. The terms of the up to 3.75m warrants from May 2026, the largest owners and the amounts in the insiders' subscription are not confirmed.
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