Rankings Transport & logistics Delta Air Lines
Delta Air Lines
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Fuel and lowered guidance−7
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Margin−4
Strengths
- Premium and loyalty revenue+3
- Debt reduction+1
- Refinery as a natural hedge+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 83.42 USD
- Median analyst target
- 101.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +21.7%
- Analysts
- 25
- Target range
- 53.00 – 125.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +45%
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.6
- Forward P/E
- 12.8
- PEG
- 0.77
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−11 of −30
- −4MarginOperating margin 7.3% and net margin 4.6% (TTM) vs 8.9-9.4% operating margin in 2023-2025; adjusted operating margin in Q3 2026 fell to 9.4% from 11.1%, and GAAP net income fell 47% to USD 756m.
- −2Quality of growthAdjusted revenue +16% in Q3 on flat capacity, i.e. price increases to cover fuel, and refinery sales rose 76%; EPS is nevertheless expected to fall about 7% in 2026 (5.41 vs 5.82 USD), and TTM EPS is down 29%.
- −3MoatBest in class among US companies, but still a capital-intensive, cyclical product with no ability to pass the full fuel shock on: gross margin has fallen from 20-21.5% to 17.9% TTM, and Delta had to absorb USD 6bn in extra fuel costs.
- −2Return on capitalROIC 10.2% vs 12.0-12.9% in 2023-2025 and only slightly above a WACC of 8.9%; ROE has fallen from 27.7% to 15.9%.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−8 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 11.4 vs 6.2-10.3 forward in 2022-2025 (top of the range), trailing P/E 15.0 vs 5.6-11.2 in 2023-2025, and EV/EBITDA 8.7 is the highest in five years (6.7-8.2) - on falling earnings.
- −2FCF yield2026 FCF guidance cut to about 2.5bn USD (from 3-4bn), equal to about 5% of the 49.3bn USD market value; P/FCF 16.3 vs 11.7-13.5 in 2024-2025.
- −1PeersDelta trades at trailing P/E 15.0 and EV/EBITDA 8.7 vs United at 9.0 and 6.8; the premium for quality is large in an industry in the middle of a fuel shock.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−13 of −35
- −7Fuel and lowered guidanceFull-year EPS guidance cut on 9 Oct to 5.10-5.60 USD from 6.50-7.50 USD, first earnings miss in two years (1.72 vs 1.75 USD expected); adjusted fuel expense +62% to 4.1bn USD in Q3, and Q4 assumes about 4.25 USD/gallon (Gulf Coast jet 4.34 USD vs 2.19 a year earlier).
- −2Labor and unit costsUnit costs excluding fuel rose 7.3% in Q3 2026 on flat capacity, which pressures the margin beyond fuel.
- −2Debt and liquidityTotal debt incl. leases USD 19.9bn and net debt USD 16.1bn; current ratio 0.40, cash only USD 3.8bn and Altman Z 1.44 - no buffer if demand breaks.
- −2Cyclical demand and price sensitivityUS airfares are up over 23% year over year, and the Q4 plan requires about 20% revenue growth on under 2% more seats; air travel is one of the first consumer goods to be cut in a slowdown.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +3Premium and loyalty revenuePremium revenue and loyalty revenue (including the Amex partnership) both rose about 18% in Q3 2026; premium tickets were USD 6.8bn (+17.6%), and Main Cabin seats are being removed in favour of premium.
- +1Debt reductionTotal debt has been reduced from USD 35.8bn (2021) to USD 19.9bn, and net debt/EBITDA has fallen from 3.4 (2023) to 2.2; the dividend is only 19% of FCF.
- +1Refinery as a natural hedgeOwn refinery lowered the fuel price by 13 cents/gallon in Q3 and is expected to deliver about 40 cents/gallon in Q4.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q3 2026 has been reported (9 Oct); TTM figures run to 30 Sep 2026. Revenue is inflated by refinery sales to third parties (+76%) and fuel-driven fares, so revenue growth of 14–16% is not real volume (capacity was flat). 2025 net income included a gain on investments of USD 1.2bn, so trailing P/E for 2025 (9.0) is understated. Industry: airline = 'Transport & logistics' (closest). The fuel price swings with the Iran conflict (since Feb 2026); Q4 guidance assumes about USD 4.25/gallon. Labour agreements and the terms of the Amex deal have not been investigated in detail. 13F purchases give no points.
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