Rankings Transport & logistics Hilton
Hilton
66
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−10
- Quality of growth−3
- Capital allocation−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Pipeline and unit growth+2
- Return on capital+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 66, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 364.71 USD
- Median analyst target
- 375.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +2.8%
- Analysts
- 29
- Target range
- 275.00 – 421.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +42%
- P/E (trailing)
- 49.3
- Forward P/E
- 36.3
- PEG
- 2.54
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−6 of −30
- −3Quality of growthRevenue +5.7% and EPS +4.4% (TTM); full-year RevPAR guided to only +3–3.5%, so growth is carried by net unit growth of 6–7% and buybacks, not by higher rates per room.
- −3Capital allocationBuybacks (USD 3.4bn) plus dividends (0.14bn) were USD 3.5bn TTM vs FCF of USD 2.0bn; the difference is borrowed (net borrowing USD 2.2bn TTM), and equity is USD -6.3bn.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−14 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyTrailing P/E 50.7 vs 27-46 in 2022-2025, forward P/E 35.9 vs 23.2-32.5 forward, EV/EBITDA 29.4 vs 18.7-28.3 and P/FCF 38.3 vs 20.8-32.9 - all the highest in five years, after +30% in a year vs EPS growth of 4%.
- −2
- −2PeersMarriott, the closest peer with the same asset-light model, trades at trailing P/E 40.0, forward 31.3 and EV/EBITDA 24.9 vs Hilton's 50.7, 35.9 and 29.4.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −3DebtTotal debt USD 14.0bn vs cash of USD 1.0bn; net debt/EBITDA 4.2 (3.7 in 2022), interest coverage 4.3 and current ratio 0.65; new USD 1bn bond (5.5%, 2031) issued in May 2026.
- −3Demand and cycleRevPAR in the Middle East and Africa fell 29.5% in Q2; the outlook is dampened by calendar shifts and the US midterm election, business travel was weak, and the stock fell about 4% on weak Q3 guidance and Q4 headwinds.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceFull-year RevPAR raised twice in 2026 (1-2% → 2-3% → 3-3.5%) and adjusted EPS guidance raised to 8.89-9.01 USD from 8.79-8.91 USD after Q2.
- +2Pipeline and unit growthRecord pipeline of 541,300 rooms (+6% year over year), 42,900 approved in Q2 and net unit growth of 6.1% - a capital-light fee engine where owners pay for construction (capex only USD 80m TTM).
- +1Return on capitalROIC 17.4% (15.7% in 2025, 12.5-12.9% in 2022-2023) and an FCF margin of about 40% in the asset-light franchise and management model.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q3 2026 has NOT been reported yet (27 Oct); figures run to 30 Jun 2026. Stockanalysis' revenue (USD 5.1bn) excludes reimbursed costs from the owners, while analysts' 2026 estimate (USD 13bn) includes them, so revenue growth in the forecast is not comparable, and the operating margin of 57% is overstated measured against gross revenue. Negative equity (−USD 6.3bn) stems from debt-funded buybacks, so ROE/P/B are meaningless. Industry: hotel = 'Transport & logistics' (closest; could also be consumer). Insider trading has not been investigated. 13F purchases give no points.
Also in Transport & logistics
The highest scores in the same industry.
