Rankings Transport & logistics DHL Group
DHL Group
72
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Margin and ROIC−4
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Dividend+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 72, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 58.98 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 60.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +1.7%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 44.00 – 70.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +48%
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.0
- Forward P/E
- 15.8
- PEG
- 1.54
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −4Margin and ROICEBIT margin 7.1% TTM vs 9.2% in 2021 and 8.7% in 2022; ROIC 9.2% vs 16–19% in 2021–2022. The company has not become stronger since the freight boom.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue is EUR 85.6bn TTM vs 94.8bn in 2022 (−1.6% in 2025), and EPS 3.28 vs 4.33 in 2022. Q2's +13% in revenue is measured against a tariff-hit quarter and carried by Express' extraordinary air freight prices.
- −3Future segmentPost & Parcel Germany (18 bn EUR in revenue) is a structurally declining letter market with an EBIT margin of around 5%: EBIT fell to 135 m in Q2 (from 166 m), and eCommerce 'remained weaker'.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 15.5 vs 11.3–14.8 in 2021–2025 and trailing P/E 17.4 vs 7.9–15.0; P/B 2.77 vs 1.6–2.3 in 2022–2025. The share price is up 51% in a year, while EPS rose 12%. Only EV/EBITDA (8.0 vs 5.8–9.7) is mid-range.
- −2FCF yieldStockanalysis' P/FCF 8.9 is before lease payments; on the company's own FCF guidance of about EUR 3bn, P/FCF is about 21 (FCF yield about 4.8% of a market cap of 63bn).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−6 of −35
- −3Temporary tailwindExpress EBIT rose from EUR 730m to about EUR 1.2bn in Q2, of which about EUR 150m was a special effect from a shortage of air freight capacity after the Iran war; the effect is geopolitically driven and will disappear when capacity normalises.
- −2Trade policyTariff policy hit the business in Q2 2025, and eCommerce is still weaker; a new tariff round or weaker world trade directly hits Express and Global Forwarding.
- −1DebtNet debt EUR 23.7bn including leases; net debt/EBITDA 2.8x vs 1.4x in 2021, because buybacks and dividends have exceeded real FCF.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Raised guidanceQ2 EBIT +30% to 1.9 bn EUR and EBIT margin 8.3% (+1.1 percentage points); 2026 guidance raised to EBIT above 6.5 bn (from above 6.2 bn).
- +1DividendDividend of EUR 1.90 (2.1bn) is below the FCF target of about EUR 3bn. The buyback (1.1bn TTM, programme increased to 6.5bn through 2027) gives no plus, because dividend + buyback (3.2bn) exceeds FCF.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The company has been called DHL AG since 1 Sept 2026 (formerly Deutsche Post). Stockanalysis' FCF (7.1 bn) is before lease payments; the company's own FCF (excl. M&A) is about 3 bn EUR, and the payout is measured against that. Q2 is lifted by a one-off effect of about 150 m from the Iran war's air freight capacity shortage. The share price (57 EUR, +51% over a year) is above the analysts' average price target (55.12), consensus 'Hold'. Peers (UPS, FedEx, DSV) and union relations have not been investigated. Q3 results 5 Nov.
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