Aena

Transport & logistics · SpainRank 299 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Multiples vs own history and peers−6
DORA III: low tariffs, large investments−5
Future segment (mature traffic, growth is bought in)−2

Strengths

Raised traffic forecast+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 68, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

68Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 27.50 EUR
Median analyst target: 27.85 EUR
Upside to median: +1.3%
Analysts: 22
Target range: 20.00 – 32.50 EUR
52-week change: +17%
P/E (trailing): 17.7
Forward P/E: 17.1
PEG: 3.05

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−3 of −30

Quality of growth
In H1 2026 revenue rose 10.1%, but EBITDA only 6.3%, so the EBITDA margin fell to 54.5%; net result rose 12.1% to €1,002m.
elespanol.com
−1
Future segment (mature traffic, growth is bought in)
DORA III assumes only 1.8% annual traffic growth in Spain through 2031 (321 → 358m passengers), so growth must increasingly come from acquisitions outside the Spanish monopoly – most recently 51% of Leeds Bradford and Newcastle for EUR 340m in H1 2026 on top of Luton and 17 airports in Brazil.
infobae.com
−2

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35

Multiples vs own history and peers
EV/EBITDA 11.7 is at the top of the 10.4–11.7 range for 2022–25, P/B 4.3 is the highest (2.7–3.9), and forward P/E 16.1 sits in the middle of 14.6–20.6. FCF yield is 5.7% TTM, but only about 4.5% on analysts' 2026 FCF (€1.74bn), before investments quadruple from 2027; EPS is expected to rise only 3.5% in 2027.
stockanalysis.com
−6

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−7 of −35

DORA III: low tariffs, large investments
On 15 Sept 2026 the government approved an average tariff increase of only 0.33% per year in 2027–31 vs the 3.82% Aena asked for (CNMC recommended −0.59%), while investment rises from about 450 m € to about 2 bn € per year (about 13 bn € in total). A real tariff decrease and fivefold capex put pressure on FCF and the dividend (dividend payout 74% of earnings).
infobae.com
−5
Rising debt
Net debt rose from €5.1bn (Dec. 2025) to €6.3bn (June 2026) as dividends (€1.67bn TTM) and acquisitions exceeded free cash flow; net debt/EBITDA rose from 1.39 to 1.66.
stockanalysis.com
−1
Uncertain second half
Management highlights a lack of visibility in H2 due to uncertainty in the Middle East, expiry of hedges and load factors weakening relative to airlines' capacity; part of 2026 traffic has been temporarily rerouted from the Middle East.
elespanol.com
−1

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15

Raised traffic forecast
The 2026 passenger growth forecast for Spain has been raised to about 3% after 3.9% growth in the group's traffic in H1 (190 m passengers).
elespanol.com
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

The share was split 10:1 in 2025; stockanalysis' history is adjusted. The Spanish state owns 51% via Enaire, and tariffs are set by the government (DORA). Stockanalysis' FCF of EUR 2.18bn TTM is before the coming investment wave; analysts expect EUR 1.74bn in 2026, and DORA III quintuples annual investment from 2027 – used in the valuation. EPS forecasts are adjusted; reported EPS is EUR 1.49 TTM. Price targets (average EUR 27.12) were last updated 21 Aug – before DORA III was adopted on 15 Sep. Luton, Brazil (BOAB) and the newly acquired Leeds Bradford/Newcastle have not been analysed separately. Insider trading not relevant (state majority). Industry: airports are placed under 'Transport & logistics'.