Rankings Transport & logistics United Airlines
United Airlines
76
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Fuel and guidance risk−6
- Margin−5
- Multiples vs own history−4
Strengths
- Premium and loyalty revenue+2
- Liquidity+1
- Buybacks+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 76, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 109.24 USD
- Median analyst target
- 145.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +32.7%
- Analysts
- 25
- Target range
- 98.00 – 203.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +16%
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.0
- Forward P/E
- 13.3
- PEG
- 0.90
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−13 of −30
- −5MarginOperating margin 7.0% (TTM) vs 8.6-9.9% in 2023-2025; adjusted pre-tax margin only 4.8% in Q2 2026, and adjusted EPS fell to USD 1.99 from 3.87.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue +16% in Q2 on only 3.5% more capacity, i.e. TRASM +12% to cover fuel; analysts expect EPS of USD 7.79 in 2026 vs USD 10.62 in 2025 (−27%).
- −3MoatStrong hub network and premium growth, but a cyclical and capital-intensive product: the gross margin has fallen from 34% to 31.8% TTM, and only about half of the fuel increase was recovered in Q2.
- −2Return on capitalROIC 10.3% vs 12.0-13.8% in 2023-2025 and in line with the cost of capital; FCF fell 37% to USD 2.5bn TTM, while capex rose to USD 6.4bn (fleet +5.4%).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 10.9 (12.3 on 2026E EPS) vs 4.8-9.1 forward in 2023-2025 - above the whole range; trailing P/E 9.0 and EV/EBITDA 6.8 are in the upper part of the history (5.2-10.8 and 4.3-7.0) on falling earnings.
- −1FCF yieldFCF yield of 8.2% looks high, but FCF has fallen from 3.8bn (2024) to 2.5bn USD TTM, and Q2 FCF was only 322m USD vs 1.13bn a year earlier.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −6Fuel and guidance riskFuel expense rose 84% to USD 5.1bn in Q2 (USD 4.19/gallon), and United expects about USD 6bn extra in 2026; Q3 guidance (USD 2.50-3.50) assumed USD 3.69/gallon, but jet fuel was at USD 4.34 in October, and competitor Delta sharply downgraded on 9 Oct.
- −4Debt and leasingTotal debt incl. leases USD 33.7bn and net debt USD 17.0bn; debt/equity 2.0, interest coverage 4.0 and Altman Z 1.31; net leverage rose to 2.2x from 2.0x, and the company has not yet reached investment grade.
- −2Labor costsCASM-ex rose 6.1% in Q2, driven by new labor agreements; USD 184m was booked for ratified agreements with the flight attendants (AFA) and IAM groups.
- −2Cyclical demandThe plan requires TRASM growth in H2 to exceed 12.1%, and United has already had to cut capacity in Q2 and Q3; high fares increase the risk of a demand drop in a slowdown.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Premium and loyalty revenuePremium revenue +16% and loyalty revenue +11% in Q2 2026; record number of new MileagePlus credit cards (+22%).
- +1LiquidityAvailable liquidity of USD 19.6bn at the end of Q2, and USD 1bn of expensive debt has been repaid early.
- +1BuybacksThe share count has fallen 1.5% in a year; buybacks of USD 75m TTM are far below FCF of USD 2.5bn, and no dividend is paid.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q3 2026 has NOT been reported yet (20 Oct after the close); figures run to 30 Jun 2026. Q3 guidance (USD 2.50–3.50) is based on fuel at about USD 3.69/gallon, while Gulf Coast jet was at USD 4.34 on 8 Oct, and Delta missed and cut guidance on 9 Oct – the risk of a downgrade on 20 Oct is high. The Q2 figure included gains of USD 351m from aircraft sale-leasebacks (special items). Revenue growth is mainly fare increases covering fuel. Industry: airline = 'Transport & logistics' (closest). Credit rating and pension matters have not been investigated. 13F purchases give no points.
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