Rankings Transport & logistics DFDS
DFDS
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Debt−6
- ROIC−4
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Deleveraging+1
- Cost programme+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 168.30 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 174.50 DKK
- Upside to median
- +3.7%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 159.00 – 190.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- +79%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 13.0
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−18 of −30
- −8MarginThe EBIT margin has fallen from 9.2% (2022) and 8.2% (2023) to 4.8% (2024), 0.9% (2025) and 2.7% TTM; net profit is −DKK 21m TTM and −427m in 2025, and the gross margin has fallen from 22% to 17%.
- −4ROICA capital-heavy business that even in the good years only delivered ROIC of 4.9–8.9% (2021–2023) and is now at about 0–1%; ROE was 3.9% in 2024 and −3.1% in 2025.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue growth of 10% in Q2 came mainly from fuel surcharges, while underlying growth was only modest after several flat quarters; revenue has grown only 1.6–4% a year since 2023 despite acquisitions.
- −3Capital allocationAcquisitions of about DKK 5.7bn in 2021–2024 (2.6bn of it in 2024, including Ekol's logistics in Turkey), while ROIC fell from 8.9% to about 0; the dividend has been scrapped since 2024, and the stock trades at P/B 0.66.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 14.0 vs 6.2–12.1 in 2021–2024, after +68% in a year and on a margin still far below its historical level. EV/EBITDA 5.8 is at the bottom of 6.9–13.3 and P/B 0.66 mid-range of 0.38–1.73, but EV (23.1bn) is 2.6 times market value.
- −2FCF yield after leasesFCF after leases was only DKK 39m in 2025 and 378m TTM; the company's adjusted FCF guidance of about DKK 500m for 2026 is about 5.6% of the DKK 8.9bn market value, and H2 FCF is expected lower than H1.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−13 of −35
- −6DebtNet interest-bearing debt DKK 14.0bn (3.4x EBITDA) vs a market value of 8.9bn; interest cover 1.1x, interest paid DKK 801m TTM, current ratio 0.86 and Altman Z-score 1.5.
- −2Turkey logisticsTurkey-Europe South logistics is only expected to reach its 2025 level in 2026, which management itself calls unsatisfactory and requiring significant operational improvements.
- −2Volumes and oilFreight volume (lane metres) fell 3.2% and passenger numbers 1.6% in July, including on the North Sea, the Mediterranean and the Channel; less than half of H2 fuel exposure is hedged, and management sees downside risk from high oil prices.
- −2Management and strategyThe largest shareholder, the Lauritzen Foundation, had chairman Claus V. Hemmingsen replaced with Niels Smedegaard (EGM 8/9) over disagreement on strategy; a new CEO since July and an open portfolio review that will only be finished in about six months.
- −1Acquisitions despite debtThe acquisition of Naviera Armas' activities in the Strait of Gibraltar has only conditional approval and is not in guidance; it could raise debt again while leverage is at the top of the 2.5–3.5x target.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +3Raised guidanceEBIT guidance for 2026 raised at the low end to DKK 1.2–1.4bn (from 1.0–1.4), revenue growth to 3–5% (from about 0%) and adjusted FCF to about 500m (from over 250m); Q2 EBIT rose to 454m from 163m.
- +1DeleveragingNet debt has fallen DKK 2.1bn in a year, and leverage has fallen from 4.1x to 3.4x.
- +1Cost programmeLogistics Boost has delivered over 250m of the planned DKK 300m in savings, and Logistics EBIT rose by 52m to DKK 85m in Q2.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Marked cyclical: ferry and ro-ro freight follows European industrial volumes and Turkish exports, and fixed vessel costs create high operating leverage (EBIT margin 9.2% in the 2022 freight boom vs 0.9% in 2025). A borderline case, because part of the decline is also company-specific (Turkey logistics, the Channel). stockanalysis' FCF (2.13bn) is before leases (1.76bn) and interest, so the 24% FCF yield is misleading; the company's own adjusted FCF guidance (about DKK 500m) is used. There is no trailing P/E (loss). The strategy review under the new CEO concludes around February 2027; the Naviera Armas acquisition in the Strait of Gibraltar is not in guidance. Only 3 analysts; Q3 comes 11/11.
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