Rankings Pharma & medtech Diamyd Medical
Diamyd Medical
43
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−10
- Execution (strategic review)−8
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.69 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 104m
- Cash runway
- 20 months
- Cash / debt
- 346.0 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +37%
Bull case
Market cap of SEK 160m vs expected cash of SEK 225m at year-end. If retogatein is out-licensed for prevention (5-year data) with upfront and royalties, and the Umeå plant is sold, the value could reach 2–3x cash, i.e. SEK 450–700m = SEK 3–4.5 per share (3–4x). Alternatively, a capital return above the current price.
Bear case
The cash is spent on a reverse takeover of an unproven company with a large non-cash share issue, or burned through 2027 without a transaction. Then the cash discount disappears, and the price could halve to SEK 0.5 or lower with further dilution.
Catalysts
- 2026-09 (happened)DiAPREV-IT follow-up (EASD/Diabetologia): retogatein delayed stage 3 T1D by over 5 years in HLA DR3-DQ2 children – could make the asset easier to out-license for preventiongradual inderes.fi
- 7 Oct 2026Year-end report 2025/26: cash, wind-down costs and possibly an update on the strategic reviewgradual stockanalysis.com
- Not disclosed (the company only reports on the final outcome)Outcome of strategic review: sale/out-licensing of retogatein, sale of the Umeå factory or a transaction with one of the shortlisted counterpartiesbinary diamyd.com
Risk of going to zerolow-medium – net cash above market cap and no development programme to fund; the risk is value loss through a bad transaction, not bankruptcy.
Next financingNo need in the short term: the company expects about SEK 225m at year-end without its own clinical development. The risk is instead that the cash is spent on a transaction in the strategic review (e.g. a reverse takeover with a non-cash share issue). The burn (52m/quarter) includes wind-down costs and should fall markedly from 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesTO5 (2 options = 1 share at SEK 20.00, April 2026) expired worthless. Warrants from the March financing (up to USD 100m) were tied to the interim analysis and are effectively out of the money; exact strike not found. No convertibles.
Insiders, last 12 monthsCEO/founder Anders Essen-Möller bought 200,000 B at SEK 1.05 (28/4/2026), 100,000 at 1.00 (24/6) and 100,000 at 1.00 (27/7) – about SEK 0.4m in total. No insider sales found.
Largest ownersAnders Essen-Möller 4.45% of capital / 10.26% of votes. Insiders about 13.6% in total, institutions about 30.9% (stockanalysis). The rest of the top 5 not examined.
Circio check(1) Yes: market value DKK 104m. (2) No: GAD immunotherapy in T1D is cold after the phase 3 failure. (3) Partly: no new data, but the outcome of the strategic review could change the picture. (4) No: no large partner. (5) Partly: about SEK 225m without its own development, but the cash is at stake in a transaction. (6) Yes: −91% in a year and the price flat around SEK 1 for four months.
Why this asymmetryIt trades at about 0.7x expected cash, so the downside is partly covered, and a sensible transaction or out-licensing could give 2–4x. But there is no binary scientific catalyst any more, and management could spend the cash on an unknown asset, which often ends badly for minority shareholders.
How the score is built
From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.99 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −90%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−30 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 0.4m and operating loss SEK 288m (TTM May 2026); the loss has grown every year since 2021 (86m).
- −10Quality of growthThe only clinical candidate, retogatein, failed: the interim analysis in DIAGNODE-3 (174 of 321 patients) showed no effect on C-peptide, not even in the selected 'super responder' group. No internal clinical development from here.
- −5MoatWhat remains are patents, clinical data and a GMP-approved factory in Umeå, which must be sold or out-licensed; the moat around a product that failed in phase 3 is small.
- −5Capital allocationRaised about USD 25m from US investors in March 2026, days before the negative interim analysis; share count +37% in a year. The board will now consider investments 'inside and outside healthcare' – unclear mandate for the cash.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−3 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.62 and negative EV (−SEK 186m); market cap SEK 160m is below the expected cash of about SEK 225m at year-end. Cheap vs its own history, but cash continues to be burned.
- −1PeersNordic biotech shells after failed studies typically trade at 0.5–0.9x cash; Diamyd is at about 0.7x expected cash – in line, not a clear discount.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−23 of −35
- −8Execution (strategic review)Shortlist of counterparties and several non-binding LOIs, but no timetable; the outcome could be a reverse takeover or an investment that ties up the cash in an unknown asset.
- −4DilutionShare count +37% in a year; a combination with another company would typically happen via a non-cash share issue with heavy dilution of current shareholders.
- −4The cash is shrinkingThe cash falls from SEK 346m (31/5) to about SEK 225m (31/12) because of the closure of DIAGNODE-3 (about 71m provisioned) and layoffs; about SEK 17m/month in the period.
- −3Governance and controlFounder Anders Essen-Möller is CEO again after the management change in April and holds 10.3% of the votes vs 4.5% of the capital through A shares; he also runs the strategic review.
- −4Share price riskShare price down 91% over one year, beta 2.3; 200-day average 5.72 vs price of SEK 1.05.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +4Net cashCash SEK 346m with no debt (31/5/2026) – above the whole market value; the company expects about SEK 225m at year-end.
- +1Insider buyingCEO Anders Essen-Möller bought 200,000 B shares at SEK 1.05 (28/4) and 2 x 100,000 at SEK 1.00 (24/6 and 27/7/2026).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Phase 3 (DIAGNODE-3) closed for futility in April 2026; the company is in a strategic review and is effectively cash plus a GMP plant in Umeå; fiscal year Sep–Aug, annual report 7/10/2026; no analysts; largest owners beyond the founder not examined.
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